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000
FXUS64 KTSA 100528
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase overnight,
especially across the western part of the forecast area, as an
upper level storm system approaches from the west. Severe weather
appears unlikely overnight, and the main threat for heavy rainfall
is likely to hold off until during the day Wednesday. Have
adjusted pops for the rest of tonight based on current trends,
with the rest of the forecast on track at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Shower and storm development will be ongoing Wednesday morning and will
continue through the afternoon as the upper system swings through the
southern plains Highest rain totals will be favored across SE OK
given the track of the system and cold core development that takes
place under the upper low. Rain chances will taper off from west
to east Wednesday night as the system lifts off to the northeast
towards the Ohio valley region. Thursday through the weekend will
feature settled conditions along with warming temperatures as
short wave upper ridging builds over the plains. Shower and storm
chances return by Monday or Tuesday of next week as another upper
system moves into the central U.S. Stayed close to the NBM for
temperatures through this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions continue to hold across the region currently, but
deteriorating flight conditions are expected throughout the rest
of the TAF period. MVFR and eventually IFR cigs should spread into
the area overnight, along with increasing chances for showers and
some embedded thunder. Precipitation will shift south and east
throughout the day with gradually improving conditions across
northeast Oklahoma sites by mid to late afternoon. MVFR to IFR
conditions will be maintained through the period for NW AR sites.
Gusty northerly winds will also funnel in behind a frontal
boundary late in the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  48  69  42 /  70  30   0   0
FSM   67  49  69  43 /  80  70  10   0
MLC   64  47  69  42 /  90  40   0   0
BVO   65  44  69  37 /  50  20   0   0
FYV   63  44  66  40 /  90  80  10   0
BYV   62  47  64  41 /  90  80  10   0
MKO   63  47  67  40 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   61  47  66  38 /  70  50   0   0
F10   61  47  67  41 /  80  40   0   0
HHW   67  48  68  42 /  90  40   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04