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000
FXAK69 PAFG 241009
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
209 AM AKDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR
POSITION DIFFERENCES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAK OVER THE INTERIOR
AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD TO THE WEST COAST TODAY. THERMAL TROUGH
IS WEAK WITHIN THE RIDGE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THE 500H WAVERS BACK AND FORTH A FEW
DECAMETERS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 120 HOURS AND BEYOND.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE EXCITED ABOUT ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. BEGINNING SUN...500H REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT
WHILE LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES DRASTICALLY INCREASE WHICH WITHIN
THE THERMAL TROUGH WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO AT LEAST
SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR SUN AND MON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCLINE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN THE SNOW MELT AND COULD
EXACERBATE AN ALREADY DELICATE BREAK UP ON INTERIOR RIVERS. A
MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO SWEEP DOWN OVER THE
NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST BY TUE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS NO COLD FRONT ANYWHERE NEAR ALASKA. BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW
A DECENT THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN
INTERIOR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING OR HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ALONG THE
YUKON RIVER SOUTH AND WEST OF FORT YUKON WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CF MAY 13