Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

At 12z Thursday a -17c to -19c 500mb trough extended from the
panhandle of Texas into Nebraska. A 700mb baroclinic zone extended
from northeast Nebraska into the panhandle of Texas under this
500mb trough. A surface and 850mb cold front extended from western
Iowa into western Oklahoma at 12Z Thursday while further west a
850mb and 700mb ridge axis extended from eastern Colorado into
southwest South Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

For the remainder of tonight into early this morning, the
aforementioned 700-500-hPa circulation will shift slowly east into
central Kansas. On the back side of this low a TROWAL axis and
resultant area of frontogenesis will permit the area of light rain
along the Colorado border, to follow the wave into central Kansas.
This will result in a few sprinkles although a few locations may measure
a few hundredths of an inch. In addition, the surface pressure
gradient will remain tight enough to bring gusty north to northwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph through early afternoon.

The pattern will then turn very quiet by late afternoon as the
aforementioned closed 700-500-hPa circulation, shifts east into the
mid Mississippi River valley.  Behind this wave strong subsidence
will spread across western and central Kansas with a resultant clear
sky prevailing this afternoon. This will permit deep thermal mixing
up to 700 hPa with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the
lower to mid 70s.

A benign evening to overnight will then dominate cross the Central
High Plains as surface high pressure ridges into Kansas.  This will
allow winds to ease quickly during the afternoon hours with light
winds and a clear sky bringing cool temperatures.  Temperatures will
bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

There is a good chance there will be some severe weather on Saturday
late afternoon and evening, east of a dry-line that will set up and
march into our eastern zones.  By 21z or so Saturday, there will be
plenty of upper lift from an upper trough/wave over Nevada, with a
surface low over northwestern Kansas.  A cold front will be to the
west, with a dry-line forming in the western Kansas by noon, and
moving into the highway 183 by 21Z or so.  Those ingredients will be
enough for some strong storms capable of large hail and even
possibly a few tornadoes. It will also get quite warm Saturday,
due to strong warm air advection from the south.  Our southern
border with Oklahoma will reach the lower 90s, while the area north
of I-70 will top out around 80 degrees. Furthermore, the tight
pressure gradient will produce strong south to southwest winds,
and a fire weather product will likely be needed, for about our
western half of our forecast area.  For now, since Saturday is 3
days out, I will wait at least one more day/shift before putting a
fire weather watch out. Precipitation chances will linger through
Saturday night, with upper support still overhead. On Sunday, the
higher level dew points in our east, and with the front nearly
stationary in our north, will both warrant low chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms, but they will not likely be in the
severe category.

On Monday, that front will come back south as a cold front, and with
a little more cold air behind it, and Monday will get windy
behind the frontal passage.  There could be a few showers Monday
afternoon in our northern CWA, near and along the front, and
showers will spread south Monday night and Tuesday.  Monday night
will chill into the upper 30s in the Syracuse, Scott City and
Garden City areas, and range to the mid 40s in the Medicine Lodge
areas. Tuesday also looks very windy as the gradient behind the
front strengthens.  Unfortunately for many southwest Kansans, it
may be even colder on Tuesday night and Wednesday night, as the
cold air mass will be settling further south and west.  The upper
30s and perhaps even a few mid 30s may occur in far western Kansas
both Tuesday night/Wednesday night.  Frost conditions will have to
be monitored as those time frames gets closer.

The upper trough/low should be east of us by Tuesday, and the
precipitation chances will diminish.  Max temps will average in the
lower to mid 60s for Tue, Wed, and Thur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Gusty northwest winds will decrease during the afternoon and
early evening period as an area of high pressure at the surface
moves into the Central High Plains. As this area of high pressure
moves into western Oklahoma overnight the light winds will become
south and begin to gradually increase to around 10 knots by 12z
Friday. Southerly winds will continue to increase early Friday as
a trough of low pressure deepens near the Colorado border. VFR
conditions can be expected through Friday given the subsidence
developing behind the upper level trough moving east towards
Missouri today along with limit moisture forecast across western
Kansas based on BUFR soundings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  42  84  54 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  70  42  84  50 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  70  44  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  42  86  53 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  70  42  82  51 /  10   0   0   0
P28  72  41  83  58 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert






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