Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COLORADO AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS AN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING SYNOPTIC TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER
UPSTREAM. THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE MESOSCALE MODEL DOMAIN
(WRF-ARW/NMM AND 4 KM NAM) THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT MUCH PAST THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER TONIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS THE HRRR, WHICH IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTWARD PROPAGATION. THINK
THIS COULD BE AN OUTLIER. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST
ZONES THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY DOUBTFUL GIVEN VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY.

THERE COULD BE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY
INTO TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THINK THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SPREADING EAST AS THE CONVERGENT AREA SPREADS
EAST. TRIED TO INSERT A DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR POPS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A RATHER MARGINAL SEVERE EVENT AS BULK SHEAR STRENGTHENS
TO 30 KT AND THERE IS SOME MARGINAL CAPE FORECAST.

MINIMUMS TONIGHT WILL IN THE UPPER 50S WITH MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN THE
80-87F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, AN AREA OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 BUT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLIP EAST OF HIGHWAY
183/281 BY MID MORNING. AS THE REGION HEADS INTO TUESDAY THE
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
WAVE, THE LEE TROUGH WILL KICK OFF THE FOOT HILLS REGION OF
COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PERMIT DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING BACK
NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE
DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION WILL PERMIT MIXING UP TO 750 HPA WITH RESULTANT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY
EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL UP TO PING
PONG SIZE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SEE THE UPPER LOW SLIDE SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WHILE THE TRAILING END OF THE WAVE LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER THAN TUESDAY WHICH INDICATES LITTLE
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
CLOSED LOW COMPLETELY CUTTING OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THEN
RETROGRADING UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BACK SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS.
THIS WILL FORM A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY EARLY WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
POTENT WAVE DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT THEN STALLS DUE TO
THE BLOCKING REGIME. GENERALLY THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE TRENDING IN KEEPING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
HAVING IT WEAKEN OVER TIME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTORM
IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING. MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE AT KHYS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH KGCK THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, BUT AGAIN, THINK
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST. A 050 DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SSE TODAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  84  60  84 /  40  30  30  30
GCK  59  86  60  86 /  30  20  30  20
EHA  58  86  59  86 /  30  10  20  20
LBL  59  86  61  86 /  20  20  20  30
HYS  58  80  59  81 /  60  50  30  20
P28  57  82  60  82 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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