Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022148
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
348 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
BUT...DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMALS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LARGELY END TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVER
THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE.

A FAIRLY PERSISTANT AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
ANCHOR OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH NO REAL
MECHANISM FOR FLUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT. AS RESULT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE STORMS
WILL BE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS
AND DAY TIME HEATING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS FIRST THEN MOVE TO LOWER ELEVATIONS...SUSTAINED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACTING AS MINI-FRONTS AND PROVIDING THEIR OWN
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE THE FUEL THAT SUSTAINS THE STORMS
UNTIL THEY DIE OUT LATER DURING THE NIGHT. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. MAIN AREAS AFFECTED WILL
BE ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS. LOW WATER
CROSSINGS MAY BE IMPASSABLE FOR PERIODS OF TIME. PONDING OF WATER
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADS. ANY
HAIL PRODUCED BY STORMS WILL BE SMALL AND MOST WIND GUSTS WILL BE
UNDER 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER
50...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED MORE
TO THE EAST THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
THAT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO CONCENTRATE THE MOISTURE INTO MORE A
DEFINED PLUME THAT WILL STRADDLE EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS SEE A MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z.
P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU 08Z ISOLD LOWLAND AND
SCT MTN 3SM TSRA BKN050-070. AFT 16Z SCT-BKN060-080 BKN120-150
WITH SCT LOWLAND AND NMRS MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040. WINDS GENERALLY
AOB 12KTS EXCEPT NEAR TSMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE LOWLANDS AND ABOVE 30 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS HOWEVER WILL
LIMIT VENT RATES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  96  74  95 /  30  30  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA           70  92  69  91 /  30  30  40  20
LAS CRUCES              72  94  70  92 /  30  30  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              71  92  69  91 /  40  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              56  69  55  70 /  50  60  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  92  70  91 /  40  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             65  84  63  83 /  50  60  50  50
DEMING                  71  94  70  92 /  40  40  40  30
LORDSBURG               69  94  69  91 /  40  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  96  74  95 /  30  30  40  20
DELL CITY               70  93  68  93 /  30  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            73  96  73  95 /  30  30  40  20
LOMA LINDA              69  90  69  89 /  30  30  40  30
FABENS                  73  96  72  95 /  30  30  40  20
SANTA TERESA            74  95  72  93 /  30  30  40  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  93  70  92 /  30  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           71  93  69  92 /  40  30  40  30
HATCH                   71  95  68  93 /  30  40  40  20
COLUMBUS                72  94  70  91 /  40  40  50  20
OROGRANDE               73  93  71  92 /  30  30  40  20
MAYHILL                 59  76  57  78 /  50  60  40  50
MESCALERO               58  78  57  80 /  50  60  50  50
TIMBERON                58  78  57  79 /  50  60  50  50
WINSTON                 62  84  61  83 /  50  60  50  50
HILLSBORO               66  91  65  90 /  40  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               71  92  68  92 /  30  30  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  84  59  82 /  50  60  60  60
HURLEY                  66  87  65  85 /  40  50  50  40
CLIFF                   66  91  65  89 /  50  50  40  50
MULE CREEK              67  91  65  88 /  50  50  40  50
FAYWOOD                 66  89  65  87 /  40  50  40  40
ANIMAS                  69  96  68  91 /  40  50  50  30
HACHITA                 69  96  68  92 /  40  40  60  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  94  66  89 /  40  40  60  50
CLOVERDALE              66  90  65  86 /  40  50  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/04/26


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