Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191142
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
442 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures will
occur today. A storm system will move into the local area late
Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. Strong westerly
winds with gusts over 50 mph will be possible. There will also be
a chance of lowland rain and mountain snow showers starting late
Saturday afternoon out west and continuing across the area
Saturday night. Mountain areas will have potential for 1 to 2
inches of snow. Dry conditions will return on Sunday and much of
next week with seasonal temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quiet weather day will occur across southern New Mexico and far
west Texas today with mostly sunny skies and light winds expected.
Temperatures will warm to 4 to 5 degrees above normal by the
afternoon. Lowlands will have afternoon highs generally in the
lower to middle 60s. Higher level clouds will begin to increase
Friday night as moisture begins to stream into the area from the
southwest.

Saturday will be more active weather wise as a Pacific base storm
system moves inland and moves toward the area. The fast moving
system should reach the area by late Saturday afternoon and will
move across the state Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
There will be enough moisture with this system for a chance
lowland rain and mountain snow showers. Much of the precip will be
concentrated in a band that will be tied to a frontal boundary
that is associated with the system. Precip will start out west in
the Gila Region by late afternoon and spread eastward across the
area Saturday evening. Precip will taper off and end by early
Sunday morning.

Snow levels will start out very high with nearly all areas seeing
rain. After the frontal passage snow levels will quickly drop to
around 5000 feet around midnight Saturday night. Precip amounts
will not be heavy with only around 1 to 2 inches of snow expected
for the higher mountains with trace amounts of snow for some
lowland areas west and north of Las Cruces. All other areas will
see light rain.

This storm system will have some strong winds associated with it
both aloft and at the surface. Wind speeds will increase through
the day on Saturday but will not peak until the late afternoon out
west and may not peak in the east until the evening hours. The
later arrival of the winds will limit some of their speed
potential but much of the area will still see winds reaching
advisory levels in the 25 to 35 mph range at least for a few
hours. Areas along the east slopes of mountains and near mountain
passes will see persistently strong winds with wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph Saturday night.

Sunday will see the main part of the low pressure system tracking
east across portions of northern New Mexico. The local area will
remain on the dry southern portion of the system with strong winds
possible for a good part of the day. These westerly winds will be
post frontal with a less of gusty nature and more of a sustained
speed of 20 to 30 mph. Again, areas along east slopes, passes and
ridgelines will see stronger winds. Winds will begin to diminish
late Sunday afternoon and evening.

The outlook for next week looks dry and cool with temperature
running within 3 to 5 degrees of seasonal normals. The stable
west to northwest flow will keep weather conditions dry with
generally clear skies with occasional bands of high clouds moving
across the region. Some minor short wave troughs will pass
overhead with little impact to the area. Long range models project
another broad trough to move through the state late next week
with it main impact expected to be strong winds. Precip chances
remain poor through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12Z-20/12Z...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites. Mostly clear skies
with a few high clouds at FEW250. Winds will be south to
southwest at 5 to 10 knots after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will be dry, mostly sunny, and warmer today with most lowland
areas reaching the 60s. Winds will remain light and shift to the
southwest later this afternoon and evening. A Pacific storm system
will move inland on Saturday and will track through the state
Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Strong westerly winds
will occur with this system by Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night. The strongest gusts will be along the east slopes
of area mountains.

The storm system will also generate a chance of lowland rain and
mountain snow showers. Amounts overall will be light with a
potential for 1 to 2 inches of snow in the mountains and trace
amounts in the higher lowlands of Sierra and Grant counties. Winds
will remain strong on Sunday with drying conditions and much
cooler temperatures expected. Next week will be relatively quiet
weather wise with dry conditions and generally light winds. With a
dry air mass in place, minimum relative humidity values will drop
into the teens with modest overnight recoveries into the 40s and
50s expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 63  37  67  39 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           62  35  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              62  34  64  33 /   0   0   0  20
Alamogordo              60  33  63  34 /   0   0   0  30
Cloudcroft              50  30  48  19 /   0   0   0  50
Truth or Consequences   63  33  62  32 /   0   0   0  30
Silver City             61  35  54  26 /   0   0  20  60
Deming                  65  32  64  30 /   0   0   0  30
Lordsburg               64  33  61  26 /   0   0  20  40
West El Paso Metro      63  40  66  41 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City               64  29  68  29 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock            67  35  72  36 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda              58  38  62  34 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                  64  35  69  36 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa            62  34  66  35 /   0   0   0  20
White Sands HQ          62  37  65  37 /   0   0   0  30
Jornada Range           61  31  64  28 /   0   0   0  30
Hatch                   64  32  64  29 /   0   0   0  30
Columbus                65  36  66  35 /   0   0   0  20
Orogrande               61  34  64  35 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 60  34  58  27 /   0   0   0  40
Mescalero               56  31  55  24 /   0   0   0  50
Timberon                54  30  54  24 /   0   0   0  50
Winston                 61  28  55  22 /   0   0  20  40
Hillsboro               64  32  60  27 /   0   0   0  40
Spaceport               62  30  63  30 /   0   0   0  30
Lake Roberts            60  25  52  17 /   0   0  30  70
Hurley                  62  31  57  23 /   0   0  20  50
Cliff                   64  26  58  19 /   0   0  30  50
Mule Creek              62  34  55  24 /   0   0  40  50
Faywood                 64  34  59  27 /   0   0  10  50
Animas                  66  35  63  28 /   0   0  10  50
Hachita                 66  32  64  29 /   0   0   0  30
Antelope Wells          68  35  64  31 /   0   0   0  50
Cloverdale              64  40  59  31 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/04


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