Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010925
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY TO GIVE US A
CHANCE FOR MORE HEAVY RAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL DRY
OUT A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DAY ONE OF OUR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL HAS GONE PRETTY WELL. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. NORMALLY AFTER A RAIN EVENT
LIKE THIS WE WOULD EXPECT TO HAVE A DOWN DAY...BUT THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY. WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. PROBABLY THE MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WE WILL AGAIN SEE THUNDERSTORMS POP
UP. LIKE THURSDAY A FEW SPOTS WILL RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SO
I`M GOING TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AS A MATTER OF FACT
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXTEND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WE WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AM. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF...BUT WE WILL BY NO MEANS BE
PULLING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST. AS A MATTER OF FACT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE COMING WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THIS WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND A
LOT ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND WHERE IT FALLS. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE I`VE GONE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. THEN AS WE HEAD OUT OF
THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COMING WEEK AND
MAY EVEN GET BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOTS OF RAIN AND LOTS OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WE CAN EXPECT THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND THEN MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL SEE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS
WE WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE BKN050-070 BUT IT WILL BE
CERTAINLY LOWER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT LOWER IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CELLS.
SURFACE WINDS AWAY FROM THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT ONCE THE OUTFLOWS GET GOING
LATER TODAY WE COULD SEE WINDS SWING AROUND TO ALMOST ANY DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN. AND OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT
BE ELIMINATED FROM THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT OF COURSE FOR STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE WITH VERY HIGH MIN RH`S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  70  85  70  87 /  60  60  60  60  40
SIERRA BLANCA           81  71  78  71  80 /  50  60  40  50  30
LAS CRUCES              84  68  83  68  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
ALAMOGORDO              85  69  82  69  84 /  60  60  60  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              61  47  64  47  66 /  80  60  70  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  67  81  67  83 /  60  60  60  60  50
SILVER CITY             78  60  78  60  80 /  60  60  70  60  60
DEMING                  83  68  83  68  85 /  60  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               83  67  83  67  85 /  50  60  60  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  72  84  72  86 /  60  60  60  60  40
DELL CITY               84  65  84  65  86 /  50  60  40  50  30
FORT HANCOCK            86  71  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50  30
LOMA LINDA              79  66  86  66  88 /  60  60  50  50  40
FABENS                  86  71  85  71  87 /  60  60  50  60  40
SANTA TERESA            85  69  84  69  86 /  60  60  60  60  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  70  85  70  87 /  60  60  60  60  50
JORNADA RANGE           83  64  83  64  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
HATCH                   83  66  83  66  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
COLUMBUS                84  68  84  68  86 /  60  60  60  60  50
OROGRANDE               84  68  84  68  86 /  60  60  60  50  40
MAYHILL                 70  52  71  52  74 /  80  60  80  60  50
MESCALERO               71  51  71  51  73 /  80  60  70  60  60
TIMBERON                70  50  71  50  73 /  80  60  70  60  50
WINSTON                 78  58  79  57  81 /  80  60  80  60  70
HILLSBORO               78  67  84  67  86 /  60  60  70  60  50
SPACEPORT               84  67  82  67  84 /  60  60  60  60  50
LAKE ROBERTS            77  53  82  53  84 /  70  60  70  60  70
HURLEY                  80  60  78  60  80 /  60  60  70  60  60
CLIFF                   79  56  81  56  83 /  60  60  60  60  60
MULE CREEK              78  54  80  54  82 /  60  60  60  50  60
FAYWOOD                 80  64  83  64  85 /  60  60  70  60  70
ANIMAS                  86  69  84  69  86 /  60  60  60  60  60
HACHITA                 86  66  85  66  87 /  60  60  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  69  83  69  85 /  50  60  50  60  60
CLOVERDALE              78  66  81  66  83 /  60  60  50  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE




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