Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232125
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALMOST ELIMINATE OUR CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO. DESPITE
SOME EARLY BUILD-UPS CONVECTION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
GETTING GOING EAST OF THE RIVER. THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUNCH FROM EAST TO WEST AND WILL EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATE OUR RAIN
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. I WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN AREA MOUNTAINS DO TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...BUT I REALLY
DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH ACTION AFTER THIS EVENING. BY THE WEEKEND
WE WILL SEE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE RIDGE AS IT WILL BE STARTING A
SLOW MARCH TO OUR WEST...BUT WE WILL BE LIMITED IN CONVECTION TO
AREA MOUNTAINS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER WEST FOR THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE MOISTURE TRY AND WORK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTH SO WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD BOTH THE EXTENDED GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR WEST AND THAT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST AND LITTLE STORM SYSTEMS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. SO KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED AND WE MAY SEE A MORE MONSOON
LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS RUNNING
FOUR TO SIX DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER HEAD WE WILL SEE HIGHS RUNNING SIX TO EIGHT
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THEN AS THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO OUR WEST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE HIGHS DROP SOME BUT STILL
RUN FOUR TO SIX DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AGAIN LOOKING BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK
IN RAIN CHANCES WHICH WILL MEAN WE WILL SEE A DOWN TICK IN OUR
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN HERE IS HOPING TO THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/0000Z - 25/0000Z...
SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 WITH ISOLD TO WDLY SCT 1-3SM +TSRA
BKN020-030 MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE 03Z. E TO SE
WINDS DECREASING TO AOB 10KTS BY 04Z AFT 12Z FEW-SCT080-100 WITH
JUST ISOLD -TSRA OVER AREA MTS IN AFTN. WINDS BECOMING MORE S TO SE
AT 10-15KTS AFT 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS UPPER HIGH PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD
PUT AN END TO MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXCEPT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 95-105
RANGE FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
FALLING INTO THE 15-25% RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 20-30% FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A RETURN OF MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEK AS A BOUNDARY
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTH INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FIRE
DISTRICT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  99  77 101  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           74  94  75  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              71  97  72  99  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              72  98  73 100  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              51  77  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  96  71  98  69 /  20   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             62  89  64  91  61 /  40  10  10  20  10
DEMING                  71  97  72  99  70 /  20   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               70  96  71  98  69 /  30   0   0  10  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  99  76 101  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               68  98  68 100  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            74 101  74 103  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              68  91  70  93  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  74 100  74 102  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            72  98  73 100  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  96  74  98  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           67  96  68  98  66 /  10   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   69 100  70  99  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                71  97  72  97  70 /  20   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               71  99  72 101  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 61  84  62  87  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
MESCALERO               58  86  59  89  57 /  20  10  10  10  10
TIMBERON                57  84  58  87  56 /  20   0  10  10  10
WINSTON                 63  88  64  91  62 /  30  10  10  10  10
HILLSBORO               69  92  71  94  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               70  96  71  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  90  58  93  57 /  50  20  10  20  20
HURLEY                  62  93  64  93  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
CLIFF                   63  95  62  98  60 /  40  10  20  20  10
MULE CREEK              59  93  59  95  56 /  40  10  10  20  10
FAYWOOD                 66  92  68  94  65 /  20  10  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  73  96  74  99  70 /  30   0   0  10  10
HACHITA                 69  95  70  98  68 /  30   0   0  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          72  97  73  99  71 /  30   0   0  10  10
CLOVERDALE              64  91  66  93  63 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ




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