Area Forecast Discussion
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923
FXUS64 KEPZ 222221
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
321 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will continue the mild pleasant
weather tonight and Monday across the Borderland. Another Pacific
storm system will sweep across New Mexico Monday night and
Tuesday. This will give the lowlands a slight chance of rain
showers. Over the mountains, mostly snow will fall with as much as
2 to 4 inches possible above 7000 feet. This storm will exit the
area Tuesday afternoon, to be replaced by drier west to northwest
flow. The remainder of the week after Tuesday should remain mostly
clear, but temperatures will also remain on the cool side.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday`s storm has rapidly exited the area and is well to our
east now. Upper ridge building into area ahead of next Pacific
storm system, which is moving onshore of the west coast. Expect
mostly clear skies tonight, and with light winds, some patchy fog
will be possible. The heavier rain yesterday was limited mostly
from El Paso westward. Latest HRRR shows smallest dewpoint
depressions overnight basically west of the Organ and Franklin
Mts, so will keep patchy fog mostly in lowland zones west of the
Rio Grande. Upper ridge should allow plenty of warming on Monday,
with highs well above normal.

Pacific storm sweeps in Monday night. Satellite shows plenty of
cold air over the ocean behind the front, so expect another chill
down. Upper trough is large feature with surface front near the
front edge. Front should reach the area Monday night, with gusty
winds just ahead of it. A few showers could develop over the Gila
Monday afternoon, otherwise expect showers to develop in more
earnest in the evening. Looks like best chances though will remain
north and west of Las Cruces. Snow levels will remain above 9000
ft Monday afternoon but then rapidly fall with the passage of the
front. Snow levels by Tuesday morning should be around 5000-6000
ft over the Gila and around 6000 ft over the Sacs. Moisture is
somewhat limited with max PW`s around .40 inch, so snowfall of 2
to 4 inches is not out of the question, mostly above 7000 ft.
This storm exits the area Tuesday afternoon and expect precip to
end with this. Winds will be strong Monday/Tuesday, but should
remain below advisory.

Supporting upper trough is slow to move out, with departure now
looking like mid day Wednesday. Some vort maxes remain at the base
of this trough moving over the area Wednesday, but just not any
moisture left. PW`s should be below .20 inches.

Beyond Wednesday upper ridge builds strongly over the west coast
as large upper trough exits our area. Weather should remain
uneventful, though with the persistent north/northwest winds
aloft, temperatures will remain on the cool side. A trough does
drop down to the area Friday night. Will leave POPs out of grids
at this time as feature is so moisture starved.

&&

.Aviation ...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z.
VFR conditions will continue P6SM SKC-FEW250 with winds 27010KT
expected thru 18Z. After 18Z clouds will be on the increase as an
upper disturbance near from the west.  Expect P6SM FEW-SCT050 SCT-
BKN250 along with a general increase in wind speeds from the
southwest during the afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper ridge will keep the region dry and somewhat mild through
late Monday before our next disturbance moves in from the west. Wind
speeds will be increasing across northern and western zones Monday
afternoon with windy conditions prevailing most areas Tuesday...
however Min RH values will remain above critical thresholds during
this time span. The best chances for wetting precip will remain over
the Gila and western zones Monday night and early Tuesday with a few
inches of snow at higher elevations. Cooler conditions will follow
for the remainder of the week. This will result in a continuation of
Min RH values generally above 30 percent all areas to round out the
week. Good to very good vent rates are expected Monday with stronger
transport winds resulting in excellent vent rates Tuesday before
vent rates drop off for the later part of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 35  67  44  55 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca           33  68  39  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              31  65  38  51 /   0   0  20   0
Alamogordo              32  62  38  52 /   0   0  20  10
Cloudcroft              27  45  24  36 /   0   0  30  30
Truth or Consequences   31  59  36  48 /   0   0  20   0
Silver City             28  54  29  39 /   0  20  70  30
Deming                  29  64  35  50 /   0   0  30   0
Lordsburg               30  63  34  50 /   0   0  50  20
West El Paso Metro      34  67  41  54 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City               30  68  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            33  72  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              34  61  38  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  31  69  39  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            32  66  39  54 /   0   0  20   0
White Sands HQ          34  65  41  53 /   0   0  10   0
Jornada Range           26  63  36  51 /   0   0  10   0
Hatch                   30  64  37  50 /   0   0  20   0
Columbus                31  67  38  53 /   0   0  20   0
Orogrande               33  65  40  53 /   0   0  10   0
Mayhill                 30  55  30  42 /   0   0  20  20
Mescalero               28  55  29  40 /   0   0  30  30
Timberon                26  53  28  41 /   0   0  20  20
Winston                 25  52  27  39 /   0  10  60  20
Hillsboro               30  58  33  45 /   0  10  40  20
Spaceport               25  61  35  49 /   0   0  10   0
Lake Roberts            21  47  24  37 /   0  20  70  30
Hurley                  28  57  32  42 /   0  20  60  20
Cliff                   26  57  30  47 /   0  20  70  20
Mule Creek              24  53  29  43 /   0  20  70  20
Faywood                 29  59  32  44 /   0  20  50  20
Animas                  30  66  36  52 /   0   0  50  20
Hachita                 28  66  35  50 /   0   0  40  10
Antelope Wells          31  67  36  52 /   0   0  40   0
Cloverdale              34  62  35  47 /   0   0  60  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Laney



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