Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302054
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
254 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA TODAY. WE`LL
SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE WE DRY BACK
OUT AND WARM BACK UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE`LL SEE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EAST PUSH/COOL FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
USHERED IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE. DEW POINTS HAVE JUMPED UP FROM THE
TEENS INTO THE 40`S AND 50`S. USUALLY THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SIGN
FOR LOTS OF STORMS...BUT ALOFT WE DON`T HAVE A TRIGGER TO HELP
FIRE OFF STORMS. WORSE YET WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
INTO NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE TENDS TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SO WE WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON TOPOGRAPHY AND HEATING AND
LATER ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO GET STORMS GOING IN THE LOWLANDS.
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT THE
PRECIPITATION SO I HAVE TRIMMED THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT BACK DOWN
A LITTLE BIT.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL HELP OUR WINDS
TO BECOME FAIRLY WEAK. THIS MEANS WE WON`T BE ABLE TO SWEEP THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE WE WON`T SEE MUCH WIDESPREAD
RAIN...BUT I CAN`T RULE IT OUT EITHER. WITH THE RIDGE OVER HEAD
WE WILL START TO SEE A WARMING TREND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON
TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND THE WESTERLIES WILL
FINALLY SCOUR OUT OUR MOISTURE TEMPORARILY ENDING OUR RAIN
CHANCES.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE. MOST OF THE
MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IMPLIES THAT WE
WILL REACH BACK AND GRAB SOME MOISTURE FROM T.S. ANDRES IN THE
PACIFIC...WHILE THE ECMWF THINKS THAT WE MAY TAP SOME MOISTURE
FROM ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC (IT WOULD BE NAMED
BLANCA). I`M NOT REALLY CONFIDENT WE WILL TAP ANY TROPICAL
MOISTURE BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TO KEEP US COVERED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z.
P6SM SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU 09Z WITH ISOLD TO SCT 3SM TSRAGR
BKN040-060 MAINLY MTS AND EAST OF DIVIDE. E TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 12KTS EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS TO 50KTS POSSIBLE.
AFT 18Z ISOLD TO SCT 3-5SM -TSRA BKN050-070 WILL REDEVELOP MAINLY
OVR AREA MTS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S TO SE AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
IN OVER THE REGION BUT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER
IT. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS IN FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 IN SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 65  91  69  95  71 /  40  10   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           58  86  62  91  65 /  30   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              60  90  63  94  64 /  40  10  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              58  89  62  93  64 /  40  20  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              42  67  49  71  52 /  50  40  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   60  89  64  91  62 /  40  20  20  10   0
SILVER CITY             53  81  58  86  57 /  20  20  20  10   0
DEMING                  58  92  62  95  62 /  40  10  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               60  92  63  95  61 /  20  20  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  92  69  95  71 /  40  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               57  86  61  92  64 /  30   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            62  91  65  96  68 /  40   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              56  82  63  88  66 /  40   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  61  92  64  96  67 /  40   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            61  91  65  95  67 /  40  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  89  66  93  68 /  40  10  10   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           57  90  60  92  61 /  40  10  10   0   0
HATCH                   59  91  62  94  63 /  40  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                63  91  66  95  67 /  30   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               61  88  66  93  67 /  30  10  10   0  10
MAYHILL                 47  73  53  78  57 /  40  30  20  40  20
MESCALERO               44  75  52  79  54 /  50  30  20  30  20
TIMBERON                46  73  52  79  55 /  40  30  20  30  20
WINSTON                 48  79  55  83  54 /  40  30  30  30   0
HILLSBORO               53  87  59  91  59 /  40  20  20  10   0
SPACEPORT               55  91  60  93  60 /  40  10  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            49  81  54  85  54 /  30  40  30  20   0
HURLEY                  52  83  57  88  58 /  20  20  20  10   0
CLIFF                   46  90  58  94  56 /  20  20  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              44  87  53  92  49 /   0  10  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 54  83  60  89  60 /  30  20  20  10   0
ANIMAS                  60  93  64  96  62 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 58  93  63  96  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          57  93  62  95  60 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  88  61  91  60 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ





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