Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 290947
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
347 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue over the Borderland today and
Friday, giving the area scattered thunderstorms. On Saturday the
moisture begins exiting the area to the east, though the mountains
could still see a brief thunderstorm. Temperatures will begin
warming back to normal. Sunday will begin a stretch of dry weather
as next Pacific upper trough moves toward the western U.S. This
will turn the winds southwest and bring in drier air. This pattern
will last through much of next week. A cool front does move
through Tuesday, increasing the winds both Monday and Tuesday,
though likely bringing very little in the way of clouds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall forecast trend from the past few days has not changed
much. We are looking at a few more days of monsoon flow and then
the pattern snaps into more fall like weather as we turn the
calendar page to October. For today, the last of the remnants of
Roslyn move over Arizona and western New Mexico. However the upper
high over northeast Mexico will continue to pump recycled tropical
moisture around it and up into our area today and Friday. Models
still focusing best rain chances over the western zones today
where the deepest moisture (PWs of 1.1-1.2 inches) and modest
MUCAPES (200-600 J/kg) exist. Hence tailored POP grids to this
pattern. Some directional shear also apparent so a few storms may
become strong, mainly over the Bootheel.

Friday...focus gradually shifts eastward, with best chance of rain
east of the Rio Grande Valley by late afternoon and evening. PW`s
and MUCAPES diminish somewhat, although directional shear may be a
bit stronger, especially east, so a bit better chance for a few
storms to become strong or near severe.

Saturday begins drying trend, so other than perhaps a stray
thunderstorm far east zones, skies should clear and temperatures
warm back to normal levels.

Sunday through Wednesday...period should be mostly dry. GFS
showing some moisture briefly seeping back into Hudspeth County
Monday, so put a low POP in those zones. Otherwise mostly clear
skies through the period with mild temperatures. Next Pacific
trough driving this drying trend will move into the Great Basin
Monday. This will tighten the pressure gradient some and should be
able to produce windy conditions both Monday and Tuesday, before
weak cool front passes through Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/12Z-30/12Z...
Genly VFR conds with SCT/BKN140 BKN250. Dvlpg aft 17Z mainly west
of Las Cruces...Scattered -TSRA BKN100CB with isolated 3-5SM TSRA.
To the east...mostly isolated 5-7SM -TSRA BKN100CB.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tropical moisture will continue over the fire zones for a couple
more days. Scattered thunderstorms expected today and Friday, with
gradual tapering off after. By Sunday and beyond very few clouds
should be left as temperatures return back to normal readings.
Windy conditions Monday and Tuesday with arrival of next Pacific
trough and front, could begin drying out fuels. Min RH in the 30s
lowlands will drop into the 20s Saturday and into the teens by
Monday and Tuesday. For the mountains...min RH in the 40s will
drop into the 30s Saturday and into the 20s by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 83  62  80  63 /  20  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca           78  57  75  58 /   0  10  20  30
Las Cruces              82  59  78  58 /  20  10  20  20
Alamogordo              82  56  80  57 /  20  10  20  20
Cloudcroft              63  41  63  45 /  20  10  20  30
Truth or Consequences   80  57  78  58 /  30  20  20  20
Silver City             73  53  72  53 /  50  30  30  10
Deming                  82  57  79  57 /  30  30  30  10
Lordsburg               81  55  79  56 /  40  30  30  10
West El Paso Metro      83  62  80  62 /  20  10  20  20
Dell City               81  55  79  57 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Hancock            82  61  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
Loma Linda              76  57  73  58 /  20  10  20  20
Fabens                  83  59  80  59 /  20  10  20  20
Santa Teresa            83  60  79  61 /  20  20  20  20
White Sands HQ          81  58  79  60 /  20  10  20  20
Jornada Range           82  56  79  56 /  20  10  20  20
Hatch                   81  58  79  58 /  20  10  20  20
Columbus                82  59  79  59 /  30  30  30  10
Orogrande               82  60  79  60 /  20  10  20  20
Mayhill                 66  47  69  50 /  20  10  20  30
Mescalero               70  47  71  49 /  20  10  20  30
Timberon                67  47  68  48 /  20  10  20  30
Winston                 73  48  72  48 /  50  30  30  20
Hillsboro               79  53  75  53 /  40  30  30  20
Spaceport               80  56  78  57 /  20  10  20  20
Lake Roberts            75  50  74  49 /  50  30  30  10
Hurley                  75  52  74  52 /  40  30  30  10
Cliff                   80  49  77  52 /  50  40  30  10
Mule Creek              77  46  75  49 /  60  40  30  10
Faywood                 79  54  76  54 /  40  30  30  10
Animas                  83  55  80  55 /  40  30  30  10
Hachita                 82  54  80  55 /  40  30  30  10
Antelope Wells          80  55  78  55 /  40  30  30  10
Cloverdale              78  55  75  55 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner


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