Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240847
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
247 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Easterly winds behind a cold front will push cooler but more
moist unstable air into the region. As a result widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected this weekend and early next
week. A few storms may produce very heavy rains...hail and strong
winds. Westerly winds will bring hot drier weather next Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved east to west across southern New Mexico and
west Texas overnight with strong easterly winds occurring across
this region early this morning. The flow is advecting cooler but
much more moist air into the area. Consequently expect surface
dewpoints to surge into the mid 50s to lower 60s from west to east
today with precipitable water rising to around 1.1 to 1.4 inches
most areas. The increase in low level moisture will significantly
destabilize the air mass causing high MUCAPE`s from around 1200 to
2500 J/kg west to east by late afternoon. Little convective
inhibition will exist so expect surface heating and upslope flow
will initiate storms this afternoon with subsequent outflows
forcing updrafts into the evening. In addition with upper ridge to
the west models suggest possible weak embedded waves aloft will
move to the south into the CWA with attendant lift also triggering
more convection. Expect this scenario to exist both today and
Sunday.

The abundant moisture and high instability should result in a few
storms producing heavy rains with the potential for flash
flooding. Mid level winds from the northwest will also be
collocated over low level east to southeast flow resulting in a
deep layer 0 to 6 km shear around 30 kt. This shear in conjunction
with low level moisture and the rather high instability should
result in a few storms producing large hail. Finally DCAPE values
above 1200 J/kg mean several storms may cause strong downbursts.

Large area of high pressure to the east will combine with desert
heat low to sustain moist south to southeast winds Monday and
Tuesday allowing for for more deep convection Monday and Tuesday.
By Wednesday upper ridge will be aligned on an east to west axis
south of the border with westerly winds aloft across the CWA.
Associated downslope flow and warming will also result in surface
trough becoming established to the east. This pattern change will
produce a deep westerly flow across southern New Mexico and west
Texas causing warmer temperatures and a reduced threat of
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/12z-25/12z.
Mostly VFR with SCT-BKN 050-100 through 20z with surface winds
gusting from 30 to 40 kt from the east. After 20z a few areas of
MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR and IFR conditions becoming more widespread after 00z. A
few storms may produce hail...wind gusts to 50 kt and very heavy
rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Easterly winds behind a cold front will push cooler but more
moist unstable air into the region. As a result widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected this weekend and early next
week. A few storms may produce very heavy rains...hail and strong
winds. The wetting rains should significantly reduce the fire
danger during the next 3 days. Westerly winds will bring warmer
drier weather next Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  74  93  71 /  20  60  30  60
Sierra Blanca           90  69  89  68 /  20  30  30  50
Las Cruces              94  70  91  67 /  20  60  30  60
Alamogordo              90  68  90  67 /  30  50  40  60
Cloudcroft              68  52  68  51 /  40  60  70  80
Truth or Consequences   94  70  90  67 /  50  60  60  50
Silver City             93  66  87  62 /  50  60  60  70
Deming                  96  70  93  67 /  20  60  30  50
Lordsburg              101  72  94  68 /  20  50  30  50
West El Paso Metro      94  74  92  71 /  20  60  30  60
Dell City               91  67  91  66 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Hancock            94  72  94  70 /  20  30  30  50
Loma Linda              88  68  87  67 /  20  60  40  60
Fabens                  94  73  93  71 /  20  60  30  50
Santa Teresa            94  71  93  69 /  20  60  30  60
White Sands HQ          92  73  91  71 /  20  60  30  70
Jornada Range           92  67  91  65 /  20  60  30  60
Hatch                   95  69  93  67 /  20  60  30  60
Columbus                98  73  95  69 /  20  60  30  50
Orogrande               92  71  91  69 /  20  60  30  60
Mayhill                 75  56  75  55 /  50  60  70  80
Mescalero               77  56  76  54 /  40  60  70  80
Timberon                76  55  75  55 /  40  50  60  80
Winston                 88  60  84  57 /  60  60  70  60
Hillsboro               91  64  88  62 /  60  60  60  60
Spaceport               93  65  91  64 /  40  60  30  50
Lake Roberts            91  58  86  54 /  60  60  60  70
Hurley                  94  66  88  62 /  40  60  50  70
Cliff                  100  65  94  61 /  50  50  50  60
Mule Creek              98  68  92  64 /  40  40  50  50
Faywood                 91  65  88  62 /  40  60  40  60
Animas                 102  72  96  69 /  30  40  30  50
Hachita                100  71  95  68 /  30  50  30  50
Antelope Wells         100  72  95  68 /  30  40  40  60
Cloverdale              98  71  92  66 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ411.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418-419.

&&

$$

05 Rogash



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