Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 202227
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
327 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see a warming trend over the next several days so that by
Wednesday we will have high temperatures ten degrees above normal.
We will be a little cooler for Thursday but we will be windy. For
Friday and Saturday we will again see above normal temperatures
under mostly sunny skies. The clouds and the wind will return for
next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The storm system that brought a little snow, breezy winds and
some rain to the area on Saturday night is now well to our east
causing problems in east Texas. Currently an upper level ridge is
building into the desert Southwest. This ridge will keep our skies
mostly clear with little chance for precipitation. On Thursday an
upper level short wave will move across the Rocky Mountains and
as we wrap up February and get ready to move into March that means
wind. Looks like Thursday will be a little cooler, but it will
also be pretty windy. Right now it is looking we may need a wind
advisory (25 to 35 mph) for Thursday afternoon. The short wave
trough will be too far north to help generate any kind of
precipitation.

On Friday and Saturday we will again see a slow warming trend
with a zonal flow aloft. Things look a little different for our
big Sunday winds though. The previous runs of the GFS had a pretty
decent upper level trough moving across New Mexico and bringing
with it a chance for mountain precipitation and very strong winds
in the lowlands. But the current run of the GFS and basically to
the same extend the ECMWF has a very weak short wave moving across
New Mexico. This means no chances for precipitation in area
mountains and only windy (20 to 30 mph) conditions in the lowlands.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 through period with winds generally W to NW AOB
12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge will be moving over the region bringing warmer and dry
air into the region along with lighter winds. High temperatures will
be in the 70s to near 80 for the lowlands the next couple of days
with a slight cool down for Thursday.  There will be an upper trough
moving north of the area Thursday which will increase the winds
across the Borderland to 20 to 35 mph which will combine with
relative humidities in the lower to mid teens to create critical
fire weather conditions.  Breezy winds will continue through the
weekend which could bring more critical conditions to the area.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 42  73  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           39  70  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              37  71  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              37  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              30  55  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   38  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             35  67  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  35  71  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               33  69  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      43  72  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               34  73  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            39  75  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              41  67  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  38  73  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            38  72  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          43  72  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           35  72  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   38  72  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                37  72  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               40  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 34  68  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               32  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                31  61  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 30  68  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               35  72  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               36  70  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            25  67  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  33  68  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   29  71  33  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              33  67  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 34  70  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  34  71  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 33  71  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          34  72  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              36  69  42  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz



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