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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262048
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
248 PM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad troughing, and the approach of a Pacific storm system, will
quickly bring back the strong winds after lighter breezy
conditions on Wednesday. Thursday brings another Wind Advisory to
the area with west winds increasing to 30 mph and higher through
the afternoon hours. This repeats again Friday, and both days will
give the region widespread blowing dust. Friday and Saturday the
Pacific low swings in with chances for mainly mountain showers
Friday and a few mountain and lowland showers Saturday. Saturday
also brings much cooler temperatures as a cold front pushes
through for a cool weekend. Next week looks warmer and mostly dry
with afternoon breezy conditions most days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With yesterday`s upper-level Pacific storm system now in the
plains, our region is experiencing a one-day break from strong
springs winds. These lower winds will be short-lived as the next
Pacific storm begins to carve a broad trough across the western
U.S. Thursday. This sets up the return of the typical Spring windy
pattern with tightening upper gradients and strong winds aloft
combined with lee-side cyclogenesis over the plains. With good
daytime mixing winds aloft will mix down and surface gradients
will support stronger winds at the surface. Models indicate
sustained 30 mph winds likely during the afternoon hours so we
will issue a wind advisory with this package for tomorrow
aftn/eve for all zones. We will single out the areas east of the
Franklin/Organ ranges to keep the advisory in effect until early
morning, while the rest of the area drops out mid-evening.
Temperatures will warm a but with deep zonal flow. Dry conditions
will continue.

Friday the system spools up and begins to sag south which keeps
our wind pattern intact for a second day of strong winds and
blowing dust. A slug of moisture, with some instability, and
short wave disturbance dynamics aloft will likely produce an area
of showers/thunderstorms that might drop far enough south to give
our mountain zones isolated pcpn.

Overnight Friday night a stout Pacific cold front pushes through
from the west. Models indicate h850 cooling of about 10-12 C which
will drop temps below seasonal normals. Saturday the system
closes off and drops south of the Four Corners and passes east
across N central NM. We continue with some mainly mountain and
surrounding lowland (esp. eastern lowlands) showers and maybe a
few thunderstorms. With the storm in the vicinity winds should
continue breezy to slightly windy.

Saturday night into Sunday morning a backdoor front pushes in from
the NE under the exiting upper storm. This reinforces our cool
air and keeps Sunday temps below seasonal norms. Winds will
slacken noticeably for Sunday as high pressure begins to build
aloft to our west and the frontal boundary weakens across the
area.

Monday through Wednesday of next week currently appear to be
relatively benign relative to this week`s weather. Generally high
pressure with lighter winds, dry conditions, and warmer
temperatures.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT200-250 through period.  West winds of 10-20G30KTS will
decrease to around 10KTS at all terminals except on eastern slopes
of area mts including KELP where winds will likely remain around 10-
20KTS. After 15Z winds will be increasing to 20-30G40KTS with areas
of 3-5SM in BLDU.

26-Grzywacz

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...

Today was the only break in the winds for the week with increasing
west winds starting Thursday and continuing into Saturday.  Relative
humidities on Thursday will be falling into the 10-15 percent range
so will go ahead an issue a Red Flag Warning for all lowland areas
and the Gila region.  RH`s in the Sacs look to be just high enough
to remain out of critical conditions. There will be an increase in
moisture across region Friday which should keep critical conditions
to just an hour or two in the lowlands.  Similar conditions Saturday
but temperatures will be cooler and humidity levels even higher as
some showers move across area.  Temperatures rebound back for early
next week with daily breezy and dry conditions.

26-Grzywacz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  89  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           56  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              52  87  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              53  87  55  84 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              36  64  40  59 /   0   0   0  30
Truth or Consequences   54  86  56  81 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City             46  76  48  72 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                  49  87  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               49  86  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      60  89  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               50  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            56  92  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              54  82  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  58  91  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            55  88  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          58  87  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           48  87  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   49  89  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                55  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               56  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 39  74  46  73 /   0   0   0  30
Mescalero               38  72  44  71 /   0   0   0  30
Timberon                37  70  43  70 /   0   0   0  30
Winston                 36  77  40  73 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro               45  82  47  77 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport               47  88  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            30  76  35  75 /   0   0   0  30
Hurley                  42  78  45  74 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                   38  82  39  77 /   0   0   0  20
Mule Creek              35  79  39  75 /   0   0   0  20
Faywood                 45  80  48  76 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                  49  86  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 47  86  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          50  85  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              48  80  49  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>112.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 3 AM MDT Friday for NMZ413.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ401>412-
     414>417.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 3 AM MDT Friday for TXZ419.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-420>424.

&&

$$

14/26


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