Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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148
FXUS64 KEPZ 082143
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
211 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST. FORTUNATELY WE ARE BEING INFLUENCED MORE BY
THE RIDGE AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT BEGINS TO MIGRATE OUR DIRECTION. HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY ARE A RESULT OF A WEAK LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF US
ALLOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE WITH READINGS CLIMBING FROM SEASONAL NORMS TODAY TO AS
MUCH AS 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS WILL APPROACH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BUT
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REALLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH MUCH MORE THAN
OCCASIONAL WIND SHIFTS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DO START TO DIVERGE BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT PRESENT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN AFFECTING THE EXTENT OF INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH ONE HINTS
AT A ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY...BUT THE BIG
DIFFERENCE COMES INTO PLAY AS THE GFS FORMS A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY AND THEN BRINGS THIS
FEATURE INLAND WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE THE EMCWF KEEPS WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR REGION AND HENCE
IS THE DRIER SOLUTION. THIS ALL OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE REACH OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 09/00Z-10/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD WITH LT E TO SE WINDS UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
LOW...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH TEENS
AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           29  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              31  64  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              33  64  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   33  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      37  66  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  65  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            32  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              35  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  32  67  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            32  65  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  65  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   31  66  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                33  65  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               36  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               27  56  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  55  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 29  60  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               30  64  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               30  65  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  62  23  65 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  29  62  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   22  67  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  66  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 30  63  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  66  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 29  66  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          29  65  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              31  65  31  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ



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