Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 201216
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
516 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY COOLER
AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND DROP OUR TEMPERATURES BACK A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS
DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. THEN
FRIDAY WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER AN ACTIVE SEVERAL DAYS WE HAVE SETTLED INTO A MORE QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT NOT AS QUIET AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WOULD
HAVE THOUGHT. FOR TODAY A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NEXT TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO ONLY
SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS IS WHAT WE CAN EXPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL GIVE US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND EACH DAY...SO
THAT BY MONDAY WE WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON
TUESDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUCKLE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR EAST...BUT THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS
BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION RIGHT TO OUR EASTERN BORDER. FOR NOW THE
FORECAST WILL STAY DRY...BUT IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE THE
MODELS SLIDE THE TROUGH EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
MEAN AT LEAST THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MIGHT SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES...SO WE WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A DRY AND WARM ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW MANY TIMES WE ALSO
SEE BREEZY WINDS AND THIS IS THE CASE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE FORECAST AFTER CHRISTMAS THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL WORKING
ON COMING TO AN AGREEMENT THE GFS KEEPS THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND
QUICKLY MOVES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST...WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DROPS A STRONGER TROUGH
INTO NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD GIVE US A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND THAT IS WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE TO SCT-BKN250 BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM 24008KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BUT IT WILL ONLY GIVE US AN INCREASE IN OUR HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT DROPS US A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAYS LOOKS DRY...BUT BREEZY TO WINDY AND THEN
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY NEXT FRIDAY. MIN RH`S FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE 30`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
40`S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE
20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  34  60  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  33  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              54  31  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  30  57  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  24  42  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  31  57  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             46  31  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  53  29  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  30  57  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  37  59  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  29  60  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            57  33  63  36  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  35  55  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  56  31  61  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            54  30  59  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  35  58  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  24  58  28  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   53  29  59  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  33  59  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  32  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 44  30  50  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  26  48  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  27  49  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 45  28  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  32  56  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               52  26  58  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            46  28  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  48  30  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   52  26  58  30  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              48  22  56  26  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  32  55  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  55  31  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 54  27  59  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          55  27  61  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  30  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




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