Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 072328
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN REINFORCED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS WE LOSE MIXING
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER DUE TO A TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER...HAVE
LEFT MENTIONS OF GUSTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED WITH A
SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-
LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
AT KCNU AND REMAIN LOW END VFR. CONTEMPLATED INCLUDING MENTIONS OF VCSH
AT KCNU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEPTH...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTIONS OUT AT THIS TIME.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  39  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      26  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    31  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$



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