Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 111110
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
510 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Temperatures/dewpoints will continue to rise early this morning with
low-levels trying to saturate for possible drizzle formation across
southeast Kansas today. Otherwise a frontal boundary will push
southward across the region for today with above normal temperatures
expected over southern Kansas. Above normal temperatures look to
remain in place for Monday before next shot of colder air plunges
southward into Kansas Monday night. Daytime highs on Tuesday will be
below normal once again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

The long range models made a significant/radical change from 24hrs
ago for the Thursday night-Friday night period. Models now suggest
that much warmer air will push northward across Kansas and remove
all the shallow cold air. This can happen with the models when we
are dealing with arctic airmass patterns, therefore uncertainty is
high with regard to this latest model shift. Despite the big change
in the latest model runs its conceivable that they try and do a 180
degree change over the next couple of days. Which could go back to
the much colder solution we saw yesterday in the models given the
stubborn nature of shallow cold air. We will maintain slight
chances of precipitation for late next week/Saturday, and see if
next 24hr model runs shows better consistency.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 507 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Low clouds will affect much of the region this morning before
scattering out from west to east as a cold front pushes southward
across Kansas. Meanwhile moistening low-levels could give way to
some drizzle across southeast Kansas today, with low clouds
hanging on for much of the day. VFR conditions will accompany the
cold front as drier colder air spreads across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  24  47  22 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      44  22  48  19 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          48  23  46  20 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        50  24  46  22 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   53  25  47  24 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         38  19  51  14 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      41  20  51  16 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          41  20  49  16 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       43  21  47  18 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     55  25  45  26 /  30   0   0   0
Chanute         51  23  45  23 /  30   0   0   0
Iola            49  22  45  23 /  30   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    53  24  45  25 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ



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