Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240439
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1139 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies will continue
Sun-Sun nt. Fog will remain possible early Sun AM in the WI
River Valley and other low lying spots and again early Mon AM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 924 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017)

UPDATE...

MARINE...Lake breezes are expected each afternoon for Sun-Mon
with light sly winds during the night and morning hours. Wave
heights will remain low.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 650 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017)

UPDATE...Hot temps will continue Sun-Mon but perhaps a couple
degrees cooler from today. Record highs will remain possible
inland from the lake.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies will continue tnt-Sun nt.
Fog will remain possible early Sun AM in the WI River Valley and
other low lying spots.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 231 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight And Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Convective temperatures will be met across some inland areas
through late this afternoon. However, little if any forcing for
upward vertical motion is expected. Thus, not expecting any
showers or storms to form. Any lingering diurnal cumulus clouds
should dissipate by sunset.

Strong 500 mb anticyclone and associated surface high pressure
will slide slowly to the east of the region tonight into Sunday.
These features will continue to result in very warm and humid
conditions.

Mostly clear skies are expected tonight into Sunday morning. Lows
should remain mild, mainly in the middle 60s. Highs Sunday should
be a bit cooler, but still quite warm, with upper 80s to around
90 forecast.

Madison`s record high is 88 on Sunday, so another record high may
be set there. Milwaukee`s record high is 92. A southeast lake
breeze is expected once again in the late morning and afternoon
near Lake Michigan. This will prevent a record high at Milwaukee
on Sunday. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds may form again in the
afternoon.

Sunday night and Monday...Forecast confidence...High

The upper ridge pushes a little off to the east, as the large
trough moves across the northern and central Rockies. Little in
the way of upper divergence.  The 700/850 mb ridge is across the
eastern Great Lakes, with a weak southwest 850/700 mb flow across
much of southern Wisconsin.

A surface high remains over the Great Lakes and weakens, with
southern Wisconsin still in the in light southerly flow. The
atmosphere still looks rather dry, except for a slow increase
in moisture between 700 and 850 mb. CAPE is weak. The GFS has
backed off on the eastward progression of the showers and
thunderstorms, and is dry, as is the ECMWF.

Expect a lake breeze to develop but not reach too far inland.

Monday night and Tuesday...Forecast confidence...High

A lead upper shortwave moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley
region Tuesday, with the upper jet across eastern Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. Upper level divergence is neutral or weak
across southern Wisconsin, but 700 mb upward motion increases
Tuesday. 700 mb RH increases, but is still only around 75% or
less. 850 mb RH is just a little higher. Zero to 1 km CAPE is
around 900 Joules/kg. With the marginal forcing, will keep
chances in the low to medium range.

The surface cold front does make it through south central
Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is Medium

The upper trough re-establishes itself over the Upper Mississippi
Valley by Friday, and over the Great Lakes Saturday. Cooler air
(near normal) is expected, with some instability showers possible
with the upper trough, mainly Thursday night and Friday.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected tonight and Sunday across the area.
Southeast lake breeze around 10 knots will continue to push inland
until around sunset. Light south winds are expected elsewhere.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate by sunset.

High pressure to the east will keep very warm and dry conditions
over the area tonight and Sunday. Light south winds tonight and
Sunday are anticipated. Southeast lake breeze is expected again
late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds may develop again in the afternoon.

MARINE...

Southeast lake breeze at 10 to 15 knots is expected until around
sunset. This should continue to bring waves of 1 to 2 feet. Light
south winds tonight will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots with a
lake breeze late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Waves of
around 1 foot are expected. Similar winds and waves are forecast
for Monday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Sunday Night through Saturday...Hentz



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