Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 040812
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. WE/VE CLEARED OUT NICELY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. BUT WE REMAIN VERY CYCLONIC
ALOFT TODAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
DECENT CLOUD DECK ONCE WE HEAT UP A BIT. SOME THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL PRESERVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TODAY.  MUCH COOLER 50S TODAY...COOLER EAST THAN WEST.

WE CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S. A
FEW SPOTS COULD GO TO MID 30S.  FROST NOT MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE
DECENT MIXING/FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
WEST OF OUR AREA.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE SEEMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT TEMPS
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF
MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH 925 MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN
THE 20-22C RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
GOOD MIXING...RESULTING IN FORECAST HIGHS OF 80 TO 85. WESTERLY
WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFF SHORE
THROUGH THE DAY. NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE...AS
TEMPS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ILLINOIS BORDER BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER SATURDAY...THOUGH STILL NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE SLIDING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN PROGGED TO SLIDE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH...WITH THE STRONGER GFS
AND CANADIAN HIGH KEEPING IT DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKER
HIGH WITH THE GFS ALLOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH
QUICKER...BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY BRING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...JUST A MATTER OF GETTING THE
TIMING RIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FILL IN QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.  IN ADDITION...THERE ARE SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER EAST/NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THAT WILL ROLL SOUTH THIS MORNING...OR EVEN DEVELOP IN
PLACE.  WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY MAKING IT OVER
TO KMSN. THOSE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN CLEARING ARRIVES THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY...DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

LOOK FOR STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WE HAD A
GALE WARNING...BUT WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UNDER THAT LEVEL
SO BACKED OFF TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT...THE FAVORABLE FETCH WILL KEEP
WAVES ELEVATED THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z THURSDAY. THEREFORE...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM TODAY THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV


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