Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210234
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...STILL A FEW SPRINKLES HANGING ON IN THE EAST AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. WL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
REGARDING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT DUE TO STRENGHTENING THERMAL TROF
OVER ERN WI AND LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW. WL HANG ONTO CLOUDS IN
THE EAST THRU TUE MRNG AS WELL. MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN THE LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUE EVE IN
THE EAST. NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN ERN TAF SITES.
LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEGINNNING TO INCREASE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENS.
WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WL TURN
ONSHORE CREATING LONGER FETCH AND HIGHER WAVES ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL
VORTMAX ROTATES THROUGH...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR POPS AT
THIS POINT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW...LIKELY HANGING AROUND IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LOWS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY.

..TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
WILL BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST WI
ON LIGHT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW EARLY WED MORNING WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
A FEW LOW CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT WELL INLAND WHICH WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG.

PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU WITH A
LAKE BREEZE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT WITH AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU AND TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS SATURATED LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE NAM DRIES IT OUT QUICKER. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS
OUT...THEN WE CAN EXPECT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO CANADA
COULD LEAD TO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
WI... BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM AIR AREA. IN FACT...
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE LITTLE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND MID TO UPPER 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

WILL SEE VFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST TUESDAY. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT
CIGS MAY BE MVFR FOR A TIME...SO OPTED TO PUT MVFR INTO TAFS.

MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES GREATER
THAN 4 FEET WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK


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