727
FXUS63 KMKX 140850
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain and overcast skies today, clearing tonight for dry
  conditions Wednesday.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms expected to impact
  southern Wisconsin late this week and into this weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Today through Wednesday night:

Overcast skies throughout the day today as low pressure to the
south slowly fills. A few showers are possible through this
morning across areas from Madison and Milwaukee southward, with
the best chances near the Wisconsin and Illinois border. Clouds
will clear this evening into tonight as this low exits through
the Ohio Valley. Northeasterly winds continue throughout the day
as well, with gusty conditions expected. Gusts to 30 mph are
expected in Lake Michigan adjacent counties, and gusts of 20 to
25 mph through the remainder of southern Wisconsin. Winds will
diminish into tonight as well as the aforementioned low exits.
High temperatures in the mid-60s are expected in southwestern
Wisconsin, with areas from Sheboygan through Waukesha and into
the Lake Geneva area seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
due to onshore winds and lingering cloud cover.

Northeasterly winds will continue through the overnight hours
tonight, although gusts will diminish. This will bring in dry
Canadian air from a Hudson Bay high pressure system building
into Ontario. Expect low temperatures in the mid to lower 40s,
with clearing skies.

High pressure dominates the area Wednesday, with plenty of
sunshine, rising temperatures, falling dewpoints, and light easterly
to northeasterly winds. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low
70s in most regions, while Lake Michigan adjacent counties will
only rise into the mid-60s due to lake influence.

Wednesday night, winds shift southeasterly ahead of an
approaching low pressure system from the northern Plains.
Increasing cloud cover from west to east overnight will keep
temperatures in the upper 40s.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Thursday through Monday:

A weak sfc trough and upper level trough will move from MN to wrn
Lake Superior on Thu. PWs will increase to 1-1.3 inches with very
marginal instability, but fairly moist soundings. Had to delay
the 50-60 percent PoPs over south central WI until afternoon then
to the east for Thu eve. Srn WI will be in the wake of the weak
sfc trough passage on Fri, but still some weak upper troughing and
PVA occurring so 20-30 PoPs continue.

Will follow mostly the ECMWF and NBM for the weekend as the GFS is
an outlier with the weak cyclogenesis that occurs from the mid MS
River Valley across the Ohio Valley. The ECMWF Ensemble supports
fast zonal flow and high 500 mb heights for the weekend into early
next week. Low pressure will track from wrn Ontario into nrn
Quebec during this time with a weak and sagging cold front
possibly stalling over srn WI. Thus the low level thermal ridge
will set up over the area with high temps well into the 70s with
the potential for 80s once again. Forecasted rain chances of
20-30 percent, but a bit higher 40-50 PoPs for Sun.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Ceilings vary drastically from southern Wisconsin to central
Wisconsin, with IFR conditions near the Illinois border
increasing to 5000 ft in central Wisconsin and near Sheboygan.
Ceilings are expected to fluctuate from IFR to around 1500 ft
through this morning south of MSN and MKE. However, MSN and MKE
are expected to generally see 2000 to 2500 ft ceilings with
occasional dips to near IFR when showers approach. Low pressure
lifts northeast into Illinois late this morning into this
afternoon, potentially bringing ceilings around 1500 ft to MKE
and southward during the late morning to early afternoon hours
before ceilings lift and cloud cover breaks up from west to
east this afternoon into this evening. Clear conditions are then
expected tonight through Wednesday.

Northeasterly winds will gust above 20 kt across southern
Wisconsin throughout today, with gusts up to 25 kt near Lake
Michigan. Winds will slowly diminish tonight, but will remain
northeasterly. Winds shift easterly on Wednesday, but will
remain northeasterly near Lake Michigan.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 350 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Low pressure centered in the Middle Mississippi Valley will
slowly fill and push into the southern Ohio Valley through the
day today and into tonight. This will lead to gusty north
northeasterly winds throughout today, slowly diminishing
overnight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through late
tonight for elevated winds and waves. High pressure stretching
into northern Ontario tonight into Thursday will result in
lighter northeasterly winds continuing through Wednesday, and
then light winds throughout Thursday.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible during the morning
hours today in far southern portions of the Lake.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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