Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 260516
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG EXTENDING FM TEXAS THRU THE
ROCKIES AND DEEPENING UPR TROF NEAR HUDSON BAY ENHANCED BY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING THRU NW ONTARIO THAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT
FALLS UP TO 130M. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN ASSOCIATED LO PRES NEAR
JAMES BAY AND HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WNW
WINDS OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. THE 12Z INL RAOB SHOWED WINDS
NEAR 40 KTS AT 3-4K FT AGL...AND SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED AOA 40
MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING THE MIXING OF
THOSE HIER WINDS TO THE SFC. THE AIRMASS STREAMING INTO UPR MI IS A
DRY ONE... SO THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SCT DIURNAL CU/SC. BUT MORE
SC IS NOTED OVER ONTARIO CLOSER TO CORE OF COLDER AIR AT H85. LOOKING
WELL UPSTREAM...THERE IS A POTENT SHRTWV APRCHG THE PAC NW.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON WINDS INTO THIS
EVNG AND THEN ON TEMPS FOR SUN.

LATE TDAY/TNGT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND SLOW BUT
STEADY APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG FM THE W/DIMINISHING H925 WINDS...
THE GUSTY WNW WINDS THAT LINGER THRU THE AFTN WL DIMINISH. HIER
WAVES WHIPPED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN AND IMPACTING AREAS
FM ONTONAGON THRU COPPER HARBOR AND E OF MARQUETTE MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE LK SUP SHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOCLR...
BUT AS THE FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE NW OVER THE E AND ADVECTS
SOMEWHAT COLDER H85 AIR INTO THAT AREA...SOME OF THE BKN SC IN
ONTARIO MAY MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA. THIS CAD WL ALSO MAINTAIN GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE E FOR A BIT LONGER. A STEADY NW WIND THRU THE NGT WL
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLR. EXPECT THE
LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG.

SUN...HI PRES RDG CROSSING UPR MI WL BRING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT DAYTIME CU OVER THE E CLOSER TO SLOWLY DEPARTING
H85 THERMAL TROF. STEADY NW WINDS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG WL DIMINISH
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RDG. WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS
TOUCH 60 OVER THE W WHERE DVLPG SE FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. MORE
PERSISTENT NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP WL KEEP THE E
COOLEST...AND TEMPS THERE NEAR LK SUP MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z MON...BUT WILL MOVE E BY
12Z MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY
A BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS MN. EXPECT SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS/ ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA SUN NIGHT IN MON MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE BROAD SFC LOW OCCURRING. EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
THE BEST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE
LACKING EXACT DETAILS...THE PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
CERTAIN. RAIN SHOWERS /AGAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUE MORNING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO THU AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
-5C...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. MON AND TUE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S...BUT WED WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DUE TO AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE MODELS DOES NOT LEND MUCH
CONFIDENCE FOR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS THEY POINT TO A DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AOB
-10C. AS MENTIONED MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE WITH
EACH OTHER ON ALL BUT THE VERY GENERAL PATTERN...AND EVEN AT THAT
THE TIMING OF WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD IS
NOT AGREED ON. WILL HAVE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FOR SAT...MODELS WANT TO BRING A SFC HIGH INTO
THE AREA BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO
SAT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES...ARRIVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTN HRS. PRES GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN TONIGHT. WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET RAMPING UP OVER NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LLWS MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IN LATER FCSTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ250-265-
     266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS






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