Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 021128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AT 07Z FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STEADY PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LATEST RAP HAS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. ALSO MAY NEED A
MENTION OF FOG FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN HARLAN AND RED OAK WHERE VSBY IS REPORTED NEAR ZERO. WILL
MONITOR UNTIL ISSUANCE FOR ANY CHANGE AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO THAT AREA.

A NEW FEATURE THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN TONIGHTS MODELS IS A SECONDARY
BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY 00Z MODELS.

OTHERWISE WEATHER TURNS WINDY AND COLD BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND WAIT UNTIL LATER FORECAST FOR
HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION AND TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO AFFECT SITES FROM
TIME TO TIME...REDUCING VSBYS TO BELOW 3SM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AFTER 21Z
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND CLOUDS SCATTER...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS FORECAST BY 00Z. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN


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