Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 132330
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND RECORD LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUR 12Z OAX SOUNDING HAD DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLY WITH ONLY 1.13
INCHES OF PWAT...COMPARED TO 1.82 INCHES PWAT AT 00Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTED THE CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO INTO
KANSAS AND MISSOURI. A FEW CUMULUS HAD DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CLUSTER OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP
SHOWED NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 60S. FALLS CITY
AND ST. JOSEPH STILL HAD SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.  THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG JET AND CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE H5 LOW
WILL INCREASE UVV OVER NEBRASKA...STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...THERE IS
A RIBBON OF RESIDUAL DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH 3-6DEG C H7 DEWPOINTS
AND 10-12DEG C H85 DEG DEWPOINTS.  THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MOVING INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI MONDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY THEN RE-DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES IN. WILL
INCLUDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/TSHOWER MENTION.

SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO HAVE BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY DRY AFTER 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
SOME INSTABILITY AROUND 700J/KG AT 18Z. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE
INSTABILITY CU...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SHOULD A FEW SHOWERS
HANG AROUND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY CLOUD COVER COULD HINDER LOWS...HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL PLAN
ON THIS TO BE MINOR ENOUGH AND MENTION RECORD OR NEW RECORD LOWS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. CURRENT RECORDS ARE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S EACH DAY. SEE SPECIFIC RECORDS IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STILL LOOKS BELOW NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY.
A SHORTWAVE TROF MAY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

OUTSIDE OF PCPN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHRA AND
TSRA AROUND KOMA AND KLNK AT 630 PM SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. THESE HAVE PRODUCED SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND LIFT MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH...SOME
CELINGS IN THE 4000 TO 8000 FOOT LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH SCT
LIGHT PCPN. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY AS MIXING INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY JULY 15 AND WEDNESDAY JULY
16.

NORFOLK JULY 15 48 IN 1912/
NORFOLK JULY 16 50 IN 1906/

OMAHA JULY 15 51 IN 1967/
OMAHA JULY 16 54 IN 1976 AND 1967/

LINCOLN JULY 15 51 IN 1990/
LINCOLN JULY 16 50 IN 1912/

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
CLIMATE...ZAPOTOCNY


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