Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 202027
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SOME INCREASED WINDS THIS
EVENING...THEN THE RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS AS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY TRACKS
FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST WSR-88D
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF STORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT...A FEW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED REMAIN
TO OUR NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35KT RANGE HAVE BEEN
FREQUENT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE 3-5MB
PRESSURE RISES. THE STRONGER H9 WINDS OF 45KTS WILL TRACK ACROSS
MINNESOTA...WITH 30 TO 35KT H9 WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. DID BOOST THE WINDS BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT INTO THE
10 TO 16KT RANGE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DROP THEM BACK TO
LESS THAN 10KTS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST
SUNDAY...HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP FROM NEAR
THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND A FEW LOCAL LOWER 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH IT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL TO
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS IS SLOW TO
MOVE...THUS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS
MORE ISOLATED AND THE FORCING WEAK ON FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE COLDFRONT AT 18Z EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF KOMA TO
NORTHWEST OF KLNK. FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH BOTH LOCATIONS BY 19Z.
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KOFK. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...SMITH


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