Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 221140
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
540 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Sharp transition from spring-like conditions at the start of the
period to significant winter weather by Friday.

Mild air was still in place across the area early this morning
with temperatures at 08Z in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures today
will again be well above normal with another day of record or near
record highs for the south half of the area. Although northern
areas will still be on the mild side, a cold front will move
through eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the day with
cooler air spreading south behind the front. A pool of colder air
will be poised to the north across the northern plains and will
drop south tonight on the back side of an upper trough moving into
the Great Lakes region.

The leading edge of the colder air will reach northern Nebraska
by Thursday morning. Clouds will be increasing during the day
along with the chance of precipitation as a late winter storm
system begins to organize over the western high plains. A strong
baroclinic zone will develop near the southern Nebraska border by
Thursday afternoon as surface low pressure deepens over northwest
Kansas. North of this boundary rain will become widespread across
the area during the day Thursday with a mix of rain and snow
initially in parts of northeast Nebraska. There will also be a
chance of thunderstorms in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
early Thursday evening.

Strong vertical motion fields resulting from isentropic lift and
the approaching upper wave will result in moderate to heavy snow
possible at times across parts of northeast Nebraska Thursday
night into Friday. A winter storm watch has been issued for the
northern two tiers of counties for this time period where there
will be the potential for up to a foot of snow along with strong
north to northwest winds.

Snow will spread south and east during the day on Friday with a
mix of rain and snow expected for much of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa before changing to all snow during the late
afternoon with light snow extending into Friday evening. Snowfall
across the south half of the area is expected to range from less
than an inch up to 4 inches by late Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Colder temperatures will be around for the weekend behind the
departing winter storm with snow covered areas seeing the coldest
temperatures. Warming trend returns for the early part of next
week with snow free areas in the south likely approaching 60
degrees by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday early morning. Weak
cold front will turn winds from south to northwest by early
afternoon at all eastern Nebraska TAF sites, but speeds should
remain below 15kt. Increasing high clouds are forecast overnight,
with a small chance MVFR cigs could spread into KOFK area right at
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     afternoon for NEZ011-012-015>018.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan


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