Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AGITATED CU FIELD WITH SOME POPCORN SHRA ALREADY
POPPING UP. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK...AMID A JUICY AIRMASS AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE...THERE WILL
BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THERE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXTENDED SOME CHC POPS VIA SCT COVERAGE WORDING
INTO THE C AND N LOWLANDS WHERE A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS.
THE HI RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS FOR ANOTHER AREA TO FOCUS
ON FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY WITH A BELT OF H7 MOISTURE REMAINING OVER SE OH AND N
WV. WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN SOME RIDGE TOP HUGGERS AND DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 OR 91 IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER ABOVE H7...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MIXING HEIGHT. RUC/HRRR ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE MIXING THIS DOWN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH...FEEL A COUPLE DEGREE DROP
IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY N WV. AS
SUCH...THINK WE WILL COME UP SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NE KY/SE OH/S WV.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING W
FLOW...SO THINK JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWLANDS IF EVEN THAT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CU TOMORROW
THOUGH...WHICH MAY TAMPER HIGHS A DEGREE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HAVE HIGHS 90 TO 92 IN NE KY/SE
OH/S WV LOWLANDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100F. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LACK SOME
ENERGY DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY WHICH IT MOVES IN...SO NEED TO LEAVE
THE POPS AT CHANCE. FORCING IS MINIMAL...AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WILL BE BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW END VFR CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE N LOWLANDS. HAVE SOME VCTS MENTION FOR
KEKN/KBKW.

EXPECT ANOTHER LIFR TO VLIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THIS MOIST LIGHT FLOW ENVIRONMENT.

MORNING FOG WILL LIFT INTO PERHAPS AN HR OR TWO OF MVFR BKN
STRATUS BEFORE CU FIELD TAKES OVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WED MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30


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