Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
076
FXUS61 KRLX 250820
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
420 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system slowly moves through the Carolinas today,
and then fills as it moves up the middle Atlantic seaboard
through Wednesday night. Next cold front Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

Stacked low pressure system moves northeastward from the
Carolinas to the middle Atlantic coast this period. Spiraling
bands of showers around the aging occlusion move west and
northwest through WV this morning, but then dissipate this
afternoon as the system gets farther from the forecast area.
The chance for showers becomes confined to the northern WV
mountains by tonight, and then goes away altogether overnight
tonight.

Winds diminish tonight in a cull between the exiting low
pressure system, and a new frontal system extending up and down
the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday morning. This may allow
valley fog to form. Moisture lingering below an inversion may
result in low clouds and fog over the mountains.

Temperatures close to a near term blend and a little lower than
previous for highs today. Previous forecast close to guidance
and accepted for lows tonight, except lower in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

High pressure builds into the region for Wednesday, for overall dry
and warm conditions. Rather dry airmass expected to be in place
should result in an overall sunny sky, and quick warm up in
temperatures, with much of the lowlands topping out in the lower to
mid 80s, with 70s in the mountains. Focus then shifts to a cold
front which will move into the region late Thursday afternoon or
evening. Still expecting showers and thunderstorms, but still
thinking severe potential will be somewhat limited, particularly if
timing of the frontal boundary slows down further. Nevertheless,
there is the potential for heavy downpours, and strong gusty winds
making it to the surface, although, no widespread severe is expected
at this time. If there is any change in the timing of this boundary,
the story on this could change however.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

Focus this weekend shifts to a developing and strengthening low
pressure system near the Gulf. Warm frontal boundary will lift north
across the region on Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms as it
does so. In addition, it will be rather hot and humid for this time
of year, with dew points rising into the 60s, and max temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s for much of the lowlands, as good southerly
flow/high moisture content air makes its way into the region out
ahead of this approaching low. Any storms that develop during this
time period will have heavy downpours, due to the high moisture
content, pw values progged to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches. Strong cold
front with system progged to move through the region early next
week. Although still several days out, this is looking to be a major
system this weekend into early next week, and will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

An inversion will keep MVFR stratocu in the mountains much of
the time, with breaks at EKN overnight, and then breaks likely
at BKW Tuesday night. The lowlands are likely to have MVFR
morning cu Tuesday morning. Patchy MVFR mist may start to form
Tuesday night.

Surface flow will be light northeast. Flow aloft will be
moderate southeast overnight, and then back to northeast while
becoming light by Tuesday afternoon, and then light north to
northwest Tuesday night, as low pressure moves slowly up the
east coast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of IFR / low MVFR stratus in the WV
mountain slopes could vary. Formation of fog or mist Tuesday
night may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 04/25/17
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.