Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 200742
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
342 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT
START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN
GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60
TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS UNDER CALM FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S...EXPECT HEAVY FROST INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROST TO WIN THE BATTLE UPON
SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW DENSE FOG ALONG
LOWLANDS RIVER VALLEYS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECT TO AFFECT
SITES ATTM. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CODED GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ








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