Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 251113
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
613 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning colder in the wake of the cold front. Warmer with upper
level disturbances and rain showers next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 605 AM Saturday...

Had to do a little surgery on the temperatures this morning as
the current post frontal air was already several degrees lower
than the forecast at UNI, HTS, and PKB. No change to the non
diurnal trend, but the changes overall were fairly significant.
Also, removed thunder from the rest of the morning time frame.

As of 240 AM Saturday...

Cold front is knocking on the doorstep of the far western edge
of the CWA. Convective activity still ongoing with slowed
eastward progression across the Ohio River. Lightning counts
have diminished overall, but also not really getting any warming
on the IR satellite imagery. Following the HRRR for the timing
which has demonstrated some pretty good accuracy this morning in
that respect.

For the climate summary upcoming today, max temperatures have
likely already been hit at midnight, and with the rain and
subsequent cold front, non diurnal temperature curve was
necessary for the daytime period. Cold air advection will be
occurring, and will see the leftover slight chance POPs
transition to light snow for the northeast highlands heading
into the tonight period. Snowfall amounts are generally on the
superficial side and relegated to the ridges. Gusty winds
expected in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

A tranquil period under Canadian high pressure brings plenty of
sunshine and near normal temperatures to end the weekend. Look
for highs in the 40s sunday and lows in the 30s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 AM Saturday...

A zonal flow pattern aloft prevails through mid week. Within
this zonal flow, there will be a northern stream along the
Canadian border which will keep the cold air bottled up in
Canada. Our weather into Thursday will be dominated by a
southern stream flow of upper disturbances lifting out of the
southwestern U.S. and across the Ohio valley and Mid Atlantic
states. Models agree with this pattern, although there are some
timing and identification differences in the individual
disturbances. Thus, we take a broad brush approach with on and
off rain showers Monday through Wednesday. We will be in the
warm sector with a good southerly flow, bringing temps to well
above normal through Wednesday. Have left thunder out for now
given all the clouds and showers, limiting instability.

Finally, the upper flow amplifies by Thursday and drives a cold
front across the area with more rain showers. Behind the front,
look for a cool down for the end of work week with temps
getting back to near normal by Friday. There maybe some post
frontal showers Friday, with snow showers mainly in the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 605 AM Saturday...

Lacking thunder at this point in the line of showers traversing
the region and pushing into the mountains. IFR conditions have
been hard to come by, so will keep with that trend as rain moves
into BKW and EKN. Ceilings will still drop into the MVFR
category, and LAMP guidance shows a hint of brief IFR ceilings
at BKW early in the forecast, but will stay on the optimistic
side with this issuance and keep the ceilings there at 1-2kft.

The cold front responsible for the line of showers will also
finish moving through the area, and expect wind speeds to
increase to 20-30kts veering to the west northwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief IFR may occur at EKN and BKW.
May need to increase some of the gusts this afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 02/25/17
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26


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