Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 020821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS IN PLACE EARLY TODAY...GRADUALLY DRYING FROM
THE WEST. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK...WITH EAST FLOW HERE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THIS MORNING WITH LOW STRATUS
HANGING TOUGH. SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS A
SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW
AND CLOUDS. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...HANG ONTO CHANCE
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE BACK INTO THE I-79 AND US-
119 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER REMAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...OVER THE SMOKY MOUNTAIN REGION
FOR THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE FINALLY BE NUDGED TOWARD
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY.

THE RESULTANT BACKWARD EASTERLY FLOW STILL SIGNIFICANT ON WEDNESDAY...
EVEN MORE SO...TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.  WILL KEEP THE
UPSLOPE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS.
A BIT MORE INSTABILITY FIGURED OUT OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BIT FLUSTRATING THOUGH...TRYING
TO FIGURE OUT HOURLY POPS IN THIS REGIME.  HAD TO LIMIT OUR LIKELY POPS
ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EASTERN SLOPES.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY...BUT IS STILL WITH US.

TRIED TO LOWER POPS FRIDAY...IN THE WEAK VARIABLE WIND FLOW BEFORE WE
FINALLY HAVE TO LOOK TOWARD THE WEST...AND MONITOR A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.

DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
STILL HAVE THE MODERATING TREND.

PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.5 INCHES UNTIL FINALLY LOWRING ON FRIDAY. STILL NEED
TO MONITOR RAIN AMOUNTS OVER OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT DRIFTS SE AND PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. KEPT
CLIMO TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF IFR IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW STRATUS PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE AND THEN FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND KANAWHA RIVER
VALLEY. EXPECT THINGS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATUS QUO...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CKB WHICH SHOULD DROP INTO IFR SOON...THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THINGS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...BUT SOME
VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY AFTERNOON.

MAY GET SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT A TAF SITE AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OVERALL TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA MAY VARY.

.AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG POSSIBLE WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ


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