Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 242346
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
746 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal
this weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night, and
again late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM Friday...

Only minor changes, but expect the clouds to persist through the
overnight period. Should help keep the overnight lows from
dropping too far. Dry through the near term.

As of 140 PM Friday...

Mainly quiet in the warm sector tonight and much of tomorrow.
There will be intervals of clouds through the period,
particularly late tonight and tomorrow morning. For temps, we
rolled on the high side of guidance tonight and tomorrow which
was well clustered to begin with. We may hit 80 along and south
of the I64 corridor if we can get enough sun in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 PM Friday...

A system will bring a band of showers and possibly thunderstorms
across the area on Sunday. Depending on the timing of the band and
how much recovery time occurs in the western counties, could see
some additional convection form late in the day.

The region stays in the warm sector as this system moves off to the
northeast, allowing for mild weather to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM Friday...

Another system will provide showers and possibly thunderstorms
Monday night and Tuesday. Behind a weak cold front, slightly cooler
but mild temperatures can be expected for mid week.

Models then show another system for the end of the week, but there
are differences in the timing and placement of this system, leading
to lower confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM Friday...

VFR once again with mid level ceilings dropping back to low end
VFR at 4-5kft Saturday. Surface flow south to southwesterly
under 10kts. Cold front approaches for Saturday night with
showers and storms late saturday night and Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 03/25/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR likely in showers and storms late Saturday night and
Sunday, possibly lingering as fog and low ceilings Sunday night
as the rain ends.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26


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