Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 250118
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
915 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front Wednesday
night/Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 915 PM Sunday...

Based on current dewpoints and MOS guidance performance last night,
will lower overnight low temperatures several degrees.


As of 150 PM Sunday...

A persistent high pressure will continue to provide dry conditions
with warm afternoon and cool nights through the period.

Near calm winds and clear skies could produce river valley fog
during the predawn hours Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

No significant changes to the forecast.

As of 240 AM Sunday...

No changes to the synoptic setup through the middle of next
week. Upper ridging over the middle Ohio Valley into the
northeast drives the mainly clear conditions with above normal
temperatures. Maria will continue its slow trek northward off
the Outer Banks of North Carolina, potentially slinging high
level clouds into the mountains. No significant POPs expected in
the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

A cold front will drop through the region from the northwest to
start the period, though models remain consistent in bringing it
in mostly dry with only slight chance PoPs across the southern
WV and southwest VA mountains given more favorable upslope flow.
This is in response to a subtle shortwave embedded within an
increasingly amplified long-wave trough, with the larger trough
moving through over the weekend. Moisture availability is again
forecast to be scant with low level Great Lakes moisture
struggling to reach this area. Progressively cooler air settles
in behind the two cold fronts with weekend temperatures
currently forecast to be around 5 degrees F below average.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions can be expected with the exception of some late
night/early morning river valley fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/25/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Late night valley fog through mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...RPY


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