Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 060007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD
TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL A BAND OF
SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OUT OF THIS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL
WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH
MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL
EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM
BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT.
THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW
THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD
ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW
ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK.

A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP...

SITE      BKW       CRW       EKN       HTS       PKB
RECORD     16-2001+  10-1917    0-1901    8-1902    6-1960
FCST        5         6       - 3         1       - 1

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY.  AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL
BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT.  THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH
FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE
GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N.

STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER
FCST.

BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND
HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS W.  LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST.  DID
RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT
STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING
SNOW COVER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
BAND OF -SN MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING...SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
03Z. EXPECT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS BAND OF SNOWFALL.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLEARING TO VFR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO VFR OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF WV...WITH CLEARING TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY
06Z...ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST VA LOWLANDS 09-12Z. MOUNTAINS MAY BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR TO VFR...AND MAY NOT LIFT TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL







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