Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 250820
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
408 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
06Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING NICELY THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WITH
SFC LOW WRAPPING UP OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. SFC FRONT
EXTENDING NEARLY N-S JUST EAST OF CHICAGO...NEAR THE IL/IN
BORDER...AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO FAR WESTERN KY. VERY INTERESTING AND
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH DAYTON
OHIO REPORTING A 24F DEGREE DEWPOINT...CINCINNATI CURRENTLY AT
31F...AND JUST DOWN THE ROAD TO THE SOUTHWEST...LOUISVILLE KY
REPORTING A 56F DEWPOINT. ALSO SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WELL
EAST OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TENN...WITH A BETTER LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SW
INDIANA AND POINTS SOUTH.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GENERAL. SFC LOW ASSOC
WITH SHARP UPPER S/W TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO TRACK TODAY FROM ITS
CURRENT AFOREMENTIONED POSITION E/NE-WARD TO NEAR BUFFALO NY BY 00Z
SAT...WITH S/W TROUGH AXIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED BUT ALREADY EAST OF THE
AREA BY SAME TIME WITH A W/NW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL...STILL EXPECT
A PREFRONTAL AREA OF PRECIP TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA SW-NE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE/DRY SLOT RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF...WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z...CENTRAL CWA
19Z-20Z...AND NEAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS 21Z-22Z. COULD FEASIBLY SEE
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-30KTS WITH THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY AS A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OF ABOUT 40KTS AT 925MB MOVES NORTHEAST NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER MAINLY BTWN 09Z-15Z. KEPT INHERITED POST-FRONTAL
WINDS/GUSTS OF ABOUT 25-30KTS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MODEST COLD
ADVECTION AND 3-5MB 3-HR PRESSURE RISES. BY 00Z SAT...ORGANIZED
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ONLY AND
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE FRONT WELL EAST OF AREA AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. ALSO
STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF.

TRANQUIL WEATHER ENSUES FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
ONCE EASTERN MOUNTAIN PRECIP COMES TO AN END BTWN 03Z AND 06Z
SAT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING POST-PRECIP FOG FORMATION. AT THIS
POINT...APPEARS THAT THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY HIGH SHELTERED
VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS EKN TOWARDS DAWN SAT MORNING...WITH DEW
DEPRESSIONS UNDER 5F AND NEAR-CALM WINDS. ELSEWHERE...LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SECONDARY FRONT TO BRING LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA SATURDAY.

CONTINUE WITH JUST A MINOR DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTS FOR THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS...KEEPING PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH WARMER...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WIND UP ACROSS OHIO BY TUESDAY. WITH THE
WARM...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES BY TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.4
INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MAY
GET SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL...AND
UNSETTLED...AS UPPER LOW FORMS ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN A REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. INCREASED POPS
ACROSS CWA FOR THE PERIOD...AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...SEVERAL
INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR WATER ISSUES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INSTEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH FRI BRINGING MVFR IN SHOWERS...WITH A COUPLE OF
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST IN THE MORNING...THEN WITH
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING A
SECOND...BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SCATTERING OF LOW DECK WILL TAKE PLACE WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...06Z SAT. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR STRATUS FORMING POST-FRONT MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AROUND THE 22Z-03Z TIME FRAME BEFORE BEGINNING TO SCATTER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD...BUT CONTINUED LOW MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES WITH SHOWERS
MAY VARY...AS MAY THE GUSTY WINDS FRI.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 04/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...50












USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.