Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 260031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Jul 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 26-Jul 28 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 26-Jul 28 2014

            Jul 26     Jul 27     Jul 28
00-03UT        3          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          2
06-09UT        2          1          2
09-12UT        1          1          2
12-15UT        2          1          3
15-18UT        2          1          3
18-21UT        2          2          3
21-00UT        2          2          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 26-Jul 28 2014

              Jul 26  Jul 27  Jul 28
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 26-Jul 28 2014

              Jul 26        Jul 27        Jul 28
R1-R2            1%            5%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
exists on day three (28 Jul) as old Regions 2108 (S07, L=257) and 2109
(S08, L=240) rotate back onto the visible disk.


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