Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 201231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 20-Aug 22 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 20-Aug 22 2014

            Aug 20     Aug 21     Aug 22
00-03UT        2          3          2
03-06UT        1          2          2
06-09UT        1          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: There is a diminishing chance for G1 (Minor) or greater
geomagnetic storms on day 1 as the coronal mass ejection passes.
Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected through the
forecast period.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 20-Aug 22 2014

              Aug 20  Aug 21  Aug 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 20-Aug 22 2014

              Aug 20        Aug 21        Aug 22
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio
blackouts.  No significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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