Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 191231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 19-Dec 21 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 19-Dec 21 2014

            Dec 19     Dec 20     Dec 21
00-03UT        3          4          3
03-06UT        2          4          2
06-09UT        2          3          2
09-12UT        2          3          4
12-15UT        2          2          6 (G2)
15-18UT        2          2          5 (G1)
18-21UT        2          2          4
21-00UT        4          2          4

Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storm
early on 20 Dec associated with the anticipated arrival of the 17 Dec
CME.  G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected
on day three (21 Dec) with the arrival of the 18 Dec CME associated with
an M6/2n flare.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 19-Dec 21 2014

              Dec 19  Dec 20  Dec 21
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms associated with flare activity from Regions 2241 and
2242.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 18 2014 2158 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 19-Dec 21 2014

              Dec 19        Dec 20        Dec 21
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected for the
forecast period (19-21 Dec) with a chance for R2 (Strong) or greater due
to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2241 and 2242.



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