Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 241231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2018 Feb 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 24-Feb 26 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 24-Feb 26 2018

            Feb 24     Feb 25     Feb 26
00-03UT        3          3          4
03-06UT        3          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        3          2          4
09-12UT        2          2          4
12-15UT        2          3          3
15-18UT        2          3          3
18-21UT        2          4          3
21-00UT        3          4          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 26 Feb due
to anticipated influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2018

              Feb 24  Feb 25  Feb 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2018

              Feb 24        Feb 25        Feb 26
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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