Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
245 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018

...SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

Dry conditions have developed across portions of the region after
a dry fall and winter. Many locations have seen less than one inch
of rainfall since january 1, 2018. Winter is normally drier, but
frequent fronts, cold dry air and lack of return moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico have all combined to create this drier than
average period. The majority of South Central Texas has not seen
significant drought conditions for the last few years. After two
years of average to above average rainfall area lakes and
reservoirs remain in good shape with levels the highest that have
been observed in several years, despite the recent lack of
rainfall. Many localities have implemented county-wide burn bans
due to continuing dry conditions. Several counties have seen grass
and brush fires the past month and officials are expecting
additional fires if wetting rains are not observed.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting La Nina
conditions will continue through the northern winter then a
transition to ENSO neutral conditions from spring into the summer.
Even though La Nina and El Nino events have significant impacts
across South Texas, other circulations across the globe help drive
weather patterns too, so we should not just be looking at one
pattern, but others as well to potentially provide rainfall for
the region.

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) valid February 6th and issued on
February 8th indicated drought conditions getting worse across
portions of South Central Texas. Abnormally dry (D0) to Severe
(D2) drought conditions were present across South Central Texas.
The driest locations were located along and to the west of
Interstate 35.

Currently 90 percent of the state is in Abnormally dry (D0) to
Extreme (D3) drought. None of the state is currently in
Exceptional (D4) drought status.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

Fire danger was low to moderate. If wetting rainfall is not
observed then fire danger threats will increase.

As of February 8th, there were 17 counties with county-wide burn
bans in effect across south Central Texas. There were 16 counties
with no burn bans currently in effect.

Counties that currently have burn bans in place:

Atascosa
Bastrop
Burnet
Caldwell
Comal
Dimmit
Frio
Hays
Kendall
Kerr
Kinney
Lee
Llano
Travis
Uvalde
Val Verde
Williamson
Wilson

Counties currently without county-wide burn bans:

Bandera
Bexar
Blanco
Comal
DeWitt
Edwards
Fayette
Gillespie
Gonzales
Guadalupe
Karnes
Lavaca
Maverick
Medina
Real
Zavala

Residents in all counties should contact their local city or
county web site, Judge`s office or Fire Marshall before deciding
to conduct any type of outdoor burning as burn bans may be issued
before the next update of this drought statement.

The February 7th County Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) showed the
following KBDI values:

0-200        200-300     300-400      400-500

Lee          Bastrop     Atascosa     Bandera
Travis       Caldwell    Bexar        Gillespie
             Fayette     Blanco       Kerr
             Gonzales    Burnet       Llano
             Guadalupe   Comal        Medina
             Hays        DeWitt       Real
                         Dimmit
                         Edwards
                         Frio
                         Karnes
                         Kendall
                         Kinney
                         Lavaca
                         Maverick
                         Uvalde
                         Val Verde
                         Williamson
                         Wilson
                         Zavala

The Texas Forest Service uses the KBDI as a means for relating
current and recent weather conditions to potential or expected
fire behavior. The KBDI is a numerical index calculated daily for
each county. Each number is an estimate of the amount of
precipitation, in hundredths of an inch, needed to bring the soil
back to saturation. The index ranges from zero to 800, with zero
representing a saturated soil and 800 a completely dry soil.
Remember, that fire danger can change quickly from one day to
another as winds and relative humidity vary.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

The Texas Crop and Weather Report issued by Texas A&M reported
weather conditions remained very dry with soil moisture levels
depleting. Ranchland and pasture conditions continue to decrease
due to lack of moisture. Livestock remained in fair condition.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

The next several days are expected to see little precipitation
and near to below average temperatures.

Precipitation from January 1, 2018 to Midnight February 7, 2018
and departure from normal:

                   2018       Normal  Departure from   Percent of
                                          Normal      Normal to Date
AUSTIN MABRY       0.42        2.68       -2.26          16%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   0.32        2.72       -2.40          12%
SAN ANTONIO        0.33        1.19       -1.86          28%
DEL RIO            0.04        0.91       -0.87          04%

For February to date, Del Rio has received 0.04 of an inch of rain.
This is 0.15 of an inch below the normal of 0.19 of an inch. The
average temperature for February to date is 57.2 degrees. This is
2.8 degrees above the normal of 54.4 degrees.

For February to date, San Antonio International Airport has received
0.05 of an inch of rain. This is 0.38 of an inch below the normal of
0.43 inches. The average temperature at the San Antonio International
Airport to date is 54.9 degrees. This is 1.3 degrees above the normal
of 53.6 degrees.

For February to date, Austin Mabry has received 0.14 of an inch of
rain. This is 0.32 of an inch below the normal of 0.46 inches. The
average temperature at Austin Mabry for February to date is 51.4
degrees. This is 1.8 degrees below the normal of 53.2 degrees.

For February to date, Austin Bergstrom International Airport has
received 0.07 of an inch of rain. This is 0.45 of an inch below the
normal of 0.52 of an inch. The average temperature at the Austin
Bergstrom International Airport for February to date is 50.6 degrees.
This is 0.3 degrees above the normal of 50.3 degrees.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook
issued February 7th and valid February 15th through February 21st
was indicating no strong signals for above average, below average
or average temperatures and precipitation.

The longer range outlook for March 2018 through May 2018
created on January 10th was indicating stronger signals for above
average temperatures and below average precipitation.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

Fall and winter have seen below average precipitation. December
did see above average rainfall in many locations, but the
remainder of the period has been dry. This continued lack of
rainfall has caused drought conditions to develop and get worse.

The 7 day stream flow averages were normal (25-75 percent) with
the Frio, Nueces and Medina basins seeing below average
(10-25 percent)stream flows.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF February 8th...

Below is a list of reservoirs with the latest elevations and
normal pools.

              Conservation Pool    Latest Elevation    Difference
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

Lake Amistad        1117                1093.9           -23.1
Medina Lake         1064.2              1046.9           -17.3
Canyon Lake          909                 905.2            -3.8
Lake Georgetown      791                 781.9            -9.1
Lake Buchanan       1020                1015.4            -4.6
Lake Travis          681                 668.8           -12.2

Restrictions...

The San Antonio Water System (SAWS) is currently in Year Round
water conservation measures.

Latest Readings from the Edwards Aquifer:

 Current      2017 Level   Departure   February  Departure from
  Level      on this date  from 2017   Average       Average

 664.4 FT      684.0 FT    -19.6 FT     669.1 FT      -4.7 FT

Many communities across South Central Texas continue to have
year round conservation measures in place.

The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District is
currently in no drought status.

Location          Current Water Restrictions

Fredericksburg            Stage 3
New Braunfels             Non-Stage Rules
San Marcos  Year round conservation measures
Uvalde                    Stage 1
Austin                    Conservation Stage
Kerrville                 Year round conservation measures

All cities continue to warn residents that stricter restrictions
could return at any time if drier conditions develop.

Locations that do not currently have mandatory restrictions
continue to strongly promote year round water conservation.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

This product will be issued again on March 8, 2018 or sooner if
conditions warrant.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

For further information on the drought impacting South Central
Texas, please visit the following web addresses.

Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service:
weather.gov/austin
weatehr.gov/sanantonio
weatehr.gov/ewx

Climate Prediction Center:
cpc.ncep.noaa/gov

U.S. Drought Monitor:
droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Office of the Texas State Climatologist:
climatexas.tamu.edu

United States Geologic Survey (USGS):
water.usgs.gov

United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE):
swf.usace.army.mil

International BOundary and Water Commission:
ibwc.state/gov

Acknowledgments...

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service, National Climatic Data Center, the
USDA, State and Regional Center Climatologist and the National
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has
been  gathered from NWS and FAA Observation sites, State
Cooperative Extension Service, the USDA, USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Drought
Information Statement, please contact...

National Weather Service
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels Texas 78130
830-606-3617 Press 2

$$


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