Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 120124
DGTGUM
PMZ173-PMZ181-260200-
POHNPEI-MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1130 AM CHST THU JAN 12 2017

...THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ENTERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHILE
KAPINGAMARANGI HAS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE LA NINA ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS
IN EFFECT. WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE NOW PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. TRANSITION TO A NEUTRAL PHASE OF THE EL NINO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION...OR ENSO-NEUTRAL...IS NOW FAVORED TO OCCUR BY FEBRUARY
2017. ENSO-NEUTRAL COULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
2017...PERHAPS THROUGH JUNE. SEASONAL TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF 10N WHILE PERSISTING ALONG THE EQUATOR MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI TOWARD THE DATE LINE.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NOW
SHOWS THAT WOTJE AND UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ARE IN
MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4) AND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
WORSENING CONDITIONS. THE MARIANA ISLANDS COULD ALSO BECOME VERY DRY
IN THE COMING MONTHS. KAPINGAMARANGI OF POHNPEI STATE HAS IMPROVED
FROM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS (DROUGHT LEVEL 0 OF 4).

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
THE ATMOSPHERE NORTHWARD FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO WAKE ISLAND
CONTINUES TO BECOME MUCH DRIER...AND MODERATE DROUGHT IS ALREADY
AFFECTING WOTJE AND UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN ISLANDS AND ATOLLS.
THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL BECOME DRIER IN THE COMING WEEKS AND
ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...
BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL SUFFER FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

POHNPEI STATE...

KAPINGAMARANGI...
THE WEATHER OBSERVER AT KAPINGAMARANGI REPORTS SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE POHNPEI STATE OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL
AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS PROVIDED ASSISTANCE AS NEEDED.

A RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 8.23 INCHES WAS REPORTED FOR KAPINGAMARANGI
DURING THE FIRST 11 DAYS OF JANUARY AND MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. DRIER WEATHER HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE DATE LINE ALONG THE EQUATOR...BUT SOME PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER COULD YET DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

WATER SUPPLIES ARE GREATLY IMPROVED FOR KAPINGAMARANGI AND WATER
CONSERVATION IS LESS CRITICAL. WELLS STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
REGULARLY FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY AND FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CHECKED
FOR RESIDUAL DAMAGE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS NOW INDICATE THE WEAK LA NINA AFFECTING MICRONESIA
WILL TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL BY FEBRUARY 2017. MANY ISLANDS NORTH
OF 10N ARE ENTERING DROUGHT AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE COMING WEEKS. DRY WEATHER REMAINS ALONG THE EQUATOR BUT
THE DRIEST WEATHER HAS PULLED EAST TOWARD THE DATE LINE.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN   JAN    JAN
                                            (1-11)  NORMAL % NORMAL

WOTJE             2.94  13.83   8.07   1.50   0.00   1.69     0%
UTIRIK            9.00  18.47   9.46   1.99   0.31   1.51    21%
KAPINGAMARANGI    7.61   2.14   6.58  11.22   8.23   4.08   202%

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA AND FOR AREAS
CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR...MAINLY EAST OF 170E. THERE COULD BE PERIODS
OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AT KAPINGAMARANGI THROUGH FEBRUARY 2017.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE BECOMING LESS
DEVELOPED AND DRIER WEATHER IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR WOTJE...UTIRIK...
RONGELAP...BIKINI...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WITH ONLY A HALF INCH UP TO
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. AREAS SOUTH
OF WOTJE...SOUTH OF 9N...WILL BE MONITORED BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
RAINFALL PATTERN.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD MAINTAINED SINCE BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP AND AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

POHNPEI STATE...

KAPINGAMARANGI...
RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN BENEFICIAL. SATELLITE IMAGES AND COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATE PATCHY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE
VARIABLE AND THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS NORTH AND
LIGHTER SHOWERS SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI IN THE COMING WEEKS.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BECAUSE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY JANUARY 26 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AND ALERT AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CHUUK AND POHNPEI
STATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
POHNPEI...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE
NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON

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