Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
880
AXUS74 KLZK 250906
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-251800-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

...DROUGHT CONTINUING TO WORSEN IN ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A LOT OF RAIN AND FLOODING IN AUGUST...PRECIPITATION SHUT
OFF IN ARKANSAS. SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER WERE THE TWO DRIEST MONTHS
OF 2016 LOCALLY. WHILE THERE WAS SOME RELIEF IN THE LATTER HALF
OF NOVEMBER...MONTHLY RAINFALL WAS STILL WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF
DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4
/EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID NOVEMBER 22ND 2016...
INDICATED WIDESPREAD D1 /92 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS.
THESE CONDITIONS AFFECTED ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE. THERE WERE D2 /64 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS IN MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. D3 /2 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS
WERE NOTED IN FOUR COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH /OUTSIDE OF THE LITTLE ROCK
COUNTY WARNING AREA/.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING MUCH OF THE FALL. UNDER THE
HIGH...IT WAS WARMER THAN USUAL AND THERE WAS NOT MUCH RAIN.

IN OCTOBER...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE FOUR TO MORE THAN SIX DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FREEZES ARE TYPICALLY FELT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS BY LATE OCTOBER...BUT NOT THIS YEAR. VEGETATION WAS SLOW
TO GO DORMANT...SO GROUND WATER CONSUMPTION WAS ELEVATED.

AS PLANTS UTILIZED MOISTURE IN THE SOIL...STORM CLOUDS DID LITTLE
TO REPLENISH THE MOISTURE. FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH NOVEMBER
23RD /84 DAYS/...FIVE TO TEN INCH RAINFALL DEFICITS WERE COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...LESS THAN FOUR INCHES
OF LIQUID WAS MEASURED AT FORT SMITH /SEBASTIAN COUNTY/...
LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/...PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/...
TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/...AND WEST MEMPHIS /CRITTENDEN COUNTY/.
RAINFALL WAS LESS THAN THIRTY FIVE PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT THESE
LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH NOVEMBER 23RD 2016...

SITE                  AMOUNT     DEPARTURE   PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/   5.93        -6.50          48
HARRISON /NC AR/       5.13        -5.93          46
JONESBORO /NE AR/      4.72        -6.20          43
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     2.69        -9.13          23
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/     3.95        -8.10          33
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/   3.23        -7.53          30
TEXARKANA /SW AR/      2.93        -9.04          24
EL DORADO /SC AR/      5.54        -6.38          46
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/     3.79        -7.51          34

IT WAS THE ELEVENTH DRIEST SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER ON RECORD
SINCE 1895 IN ARKANSAS...AND THE DRIEST SINCE 1963. THE
STATEWIDE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TWO MONTH PERIOD
WAS 3.41 INCHES...WHICH WAS 3.64 INCHES SUBPAR.

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

THERE WAS A MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN 59 OF 75 COUNTIES
AS OF NOVEMBER 24TH /ALL BUT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/. THERE
WERE BURN BANS POSTED IN 16 COUNTIES.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS ON THE DECLINE OVERALL. VALUES WERE NEAR
NORMAL /30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE/ IN PARTS OF THE NORTH...AND
BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE /5TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE/ ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN RECENT RAIN...STREAMFLOW ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES WAS
TEMPORARILY ELEVATED IN PLACES. THERE WERE SITES REPORTING
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE STREAMFLOW /FROM THE 25TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE/. HOWEVER...THERE WERE JUST AS MANY LOCATIONS WITH
SUBPAR LEVELS /10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE/. SOME LEVELS WERE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS /LESS THAN
THE 10TH PERCENTILE/.

FORECAST...

WHILE RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE LAST DAYS OF NOVEMBER...
THE MONTH WILL PROBABLY FINISH WITH LESS THAN USUAL PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE ARE TRANSITIONING FROM EL NINO /WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ TO A POSSIBLE LA NINA
/COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER/. THIS MAY INFLUENCE WHAT IS TO COME THIS
WINTER. IN THE PAST FIVE TRANSITIONS FROM EL NINO TO NEUTRAL OR
LA NINA CONDITIONS...PRECIPITATION IN ARKANSAS WAS CLOSE TO AVERAGE
THREE TIMES AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TWICE DURING THE WINTER /DECEMBER
THROUGH FEBRUARY/.

YEARS               DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY          DEPARTURE

1959/1960                    12.73                       +0.61
1966/1967                     7.83                       -4.29
1983/1984                    12.66                       +0.54
1992/1993                    12.57                       +0.45
2005/2006                     7.86                       -4.26

THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR
A DRIER THAN AVERAGE WINTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...INCLUDING
ARKANSAS. THIS IMPLIES THAT OUR DROUGHT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND PROBABLY WORSEN IN THE WEEKS AHEAD.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/DROUGHT.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTP://WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

46



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.