Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 7 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD MARCH 31ST TO APRIL
14TH.

...OVERVIEW...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING FOR THE WINTER OF
2016 REMAINS BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK AND NO
CURRENT RIVER ICE.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS AND CORRESPONDING WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS RECEIVED SOME
PALTRY SNOWFALL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK....HOWEVER BASIN
AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NOT HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.

OTHERWISE...THE OUTLOOK AREA IS BARE GROUND. THIS EASILY QUALIFIES
AS BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...INCLUDING AREAS OF NEW YORK SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT...WHERE GREENUP HAS BEGUN.
ELSEWHERE...FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS GENERALLY MIRROR
THE RIVER FLOW CONDITIONS...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS BELOW NORMAL RANGING
TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY IN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT.

...WATER SUPPLY...

NYC DEP RESERVOIRS ARE BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS IN
THE BLACK RIVER WATERSHED ARE WITHIN A FOOT OF TARGET
ELEVATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STILLWATER RESERVOIR...WHICH IS
OVER 7 FEET ABOVE TARGET ELEVATION. IN THE UPPER HUDSON AND
SACANDAGA WATERSHED... THE GREAT SACANDAGA RESERVOIR IS OVER NINE
AND A HALF FEET ABOVE TARGET ELEVATION AT THIS POINT...WHILE INDIAN
LAKE IS OVER 7 FEET ABOVE TARGET ELEVATION.

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. RESERVOIRS SAW A BOOST FROM SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE MONTH...BUT SEVERAL WEEKS WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAVE ALLOWED MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS TO FALL BY A
FOOT OR SO IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE CATSKILLS.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 6TH THROUGH THE 10TH OF APRIL...AS
WELL AS THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 8TH THROUGH THE
14TH...CALL FOR ABOVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...SUMMARY...

DUE TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER...THE THREAT FOR SNOWMELT
FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR RIVER
ICE JAMS HAS PASSED.

THIS WILL SERVE AS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THIS SEASON.
EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE FLOODING
AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK
AND NO RIVER ICE.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY.

$$

BEW



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