Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1253 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

For the spring of 2017, the Southeast River Forecast Center is
calling for a below normal river flood potential for north and
central Georgia. Given that spring is a characteristically active
period for river flooding, this outlook indicates that north and
central Georgia can expect to see the number and magnitude of river
floods to be lower than typical.

CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE.
Recent shallow soil moisture conditions fall into the slightly dry
to favorably wet category across the state due to recent rainfall.
Although the deep moisture profile is near normal across a large
majority of the state, north Georgia still falls into the severe to
extreme drought categories. Average daily stream flows for the past
30 days have been running below to much below normal, particularly
across north Georgia, where some locations in the headwaters of the
Chattahoochee River basin have observed record low flows.

CLIMATE REGIME.
Following a quiet regime late last fall, the winter pattern has been
relatively active, with weather systems impacting north and central
Georgia every three to five days. Significant rainfall events have
averaged every two to three weeks.

RAINFALL.
During the past 90 days, below normal precipitation has occurred
over north Georgia, and above normal precipitation over central
Georgia. In general, areas north of a line from Carrollton, to
Madison, to Washington have received 50 to 90 percent of normal
precipitation with rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches. South of this
line, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches (or 110 to 200 percent of
normal) has occurred.

RECENT FLOODING.
Although flooding was not an issue through the month of February,
several heavy rainfall events produced minor river flooding in
January, largely in portions of the Ocmulgee, Oconee and Flint River
basins. Localized flash flooding occurred in portions of west central
Georgia.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS.
Overall pool levels of the major reservoirs in north and central
Georgia are running below winter pool levels. A few exceptions,
including Allatoona and West Point, are running near target for this
time of year as they begin letting the pools rise to summer pool
levels. With generally low pool levels, most reservoirs should be
able to assist with flood mitigation through the spring months as
heavy rain events occur.

DROUGHT AREAS.
Severe to extreme drought conditions persist across north Georgia,
generally north of a line from Carrollton, to Lilburn, to Elberton,
with the most dry conditions across the northernmost two tiers of
counties. The drought has recently ended across central Georgia. For
additional information, please see our Drought Information
Statements.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOKS...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK.
The southeast U.S. is expected to be in a neutral pattern through
the spring, with the CPC outlook keeping equal chances of above or
below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures over the
state for the next three months. This neutral pattern is expected to
impact the southeast into the summer.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK.
Considering the rainfall expected for the next three months, and the
pre-existing dry to near normal soil conditions, the outlook is for
a below normal chance of flooding this spring in north and central
Georgia.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

For detailed web information concerning river stages and forecasts
for north and central Georgia, please see the following websites.

NWS WFO Atlanta:  www.weather.gov/atlanta
Southeast River Forecast Center: www.weather.gov/serfc
NWS WFO Atlanta - Lake Levels: weather.gov/ffc/rrm
NOAA AHPS - Rainfall Totals: water.weather.gov/precip
U.S. Drought Portal: www.drought.gov U.S.
Drought Monitor: www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
U.S. Geological Survey - Water Resources of GA: ga.water.usgs.gov

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Spring Flood
Outlook, please contact:

NWS WFO Atlanta
4 Falcon Drive Peachtree City, GA 30269
Phone: 770-486-1133
Email: sr-ffc.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Belanger

$$



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