Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
FGUS72 KGSP 062133
SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017
...The first Spring Flood Potential Outlook for the
Western Carolinas and extreme northeast Georgia calls for a
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL to NEAR NORMAL risk for small-stream
flooding and a WELL-BELOW NORMAL to BELOW NORMAL risk for
mainstem river flooding across the region through early
The mainstem river flood season typically begins in late December.
The quantity, frequency, magnitude, and significance of river
flood events often increases through late winter with a peak in
early to mid-March. The mainstem river flood season typically ends
by late April for the region. This season began in severe to
extreme drought across much of the region and, as a result, it will
take more frequent and more significant precipitation over the next
few months to increase the chance of mainstem flood occurrence
across the region.
14-DAY OBSERVED PRECIPITATION and FLOODING...
Region Observed % of Mainstem Small Stream
Precip Normal Flooding Flooding
NC Piedmont 1.50-4.00 | 75-200 | None | Iso. Action Stg.
NC Foothills 0.75-2.50 | 40-125 | None | None
NC Nrn Mnts 1.00-3.00 | 50-150 | NA | None
NC Cntl Mnts 0.75-3.00 | 75-100 | None | None
NC Srn Mnts 0.75-3.00 | 40- 90 | None | None
SC Mnts 1.75-3.00 | 50-120 | NA | None
SC Foothills 2.00-3.50 | 80-200 | None | None
SC Piedmont 1.75-4.00 | 90-225 | None | None
GA NE Mnts/ 2.50-3.50 | 70-140 | None | None
GA Piedmont 1.75-2.50 | 70-140 | None | None
28-Day average streamflows are below normal to well-below normal
across the Western Carolinas and northeast Georgia.
For more information, please review: http://weather.gov/gsp/drought.
Area reservoirs are generally slightly below to well-below their
target pools for this time of year. For more information,
please review: http://weather.gov/gsp/drought.
SNOW DEPTH and FORECAST...
Region Snow Snow Water 7-Day Snowfall
Depth Equivalent Forecast
(in) (in) (in)
NC Piedmont 0-1 | <0.10 | 6-12
NC Foothills 0-1 | <0.10 | 4-8
NC Nrn Mnts 0-1 | <0.10 | 4-8
NC Cntl Mnts 0-1 | <0.10 | 3-6
NC Srn Mnts 0-1 | <0.10 | 3-8
SC Mnts None | None | 4-8
SC Foothills None | None | 3-8
SC Piedmont None | None | 1-8
GA NE Mnts/ None | None | 2-6
GA Piedmont None | None | 1-3
1-7 DAY FUTURE PRECIPITATION FORECAST and FLOOD POTENTIAL...
Region 7-Day % of Mainstem Small Stream
Precip Normal Flood Ptntl Flood Ptntl
NC Piedmont 0.50-1.00 | 100 | Zero | Zero
NC Foothills 0.50-1.00 | 40-125 | Zero | Zero
NC Nrn Mnts 0.50-0.75 | 40-100 | NA | Zero
NC Cntl Mnts 0.50-1.00 | 25-125 | Zero | Zero
NC Srn Mnts 0.75-1.25 | 40-125 | Zero | Zero
SC Mnts 0.75-1.00 | 50-100 | NA | Zero
SC Foothills 0.75-1.00 | 60-125 | Zero | Zero
SC Piedmont 0.75-1.25 | 75-150 | Zero | Zero
GA NE Mnts/ 0.75-1.00 | 40-100 | Zero | Zero
GA Piedmont 0.75-1.50 | 60-200 | Zero | Zero
8-90 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...
Region 8-14 Day 15-30 Day 30-90 Day
Precip Precip Precip
Outlook Outlook Outlook
NC Piedmont Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Equal Chances
NC Foothills Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Srn Mnts Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
SC Mnts Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
SC Foothills Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Equal Chances
SC Piedmont Equal Chances | Slight Abv Nrml | Equal Chances
GA NE Mnts/ Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
GA Piedmont Equal Chances | Slight Abv Nrml | Equal Chances
Note that Equal-Chances means there are equal chances for
above-normal...normal...and below-normal precipitation during
the given period. In other words, there is no clear signal for
precipitation during the given period.
LONG-TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK...
Therefore, given current antecedent conditions and long-range
precipitation guidance, the long-term flood outlook through the
end of April 2017 is as follows...
Region Runoff Small Mainstem
Potential Streams Rivers
NC Piedmont Near Normal | Near Normal | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Foothills Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts Near Normal | Near Normal | NA
NC Cntl Mnts Near Normal | Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal
NC Srn Mnts Near Normal | Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml
SC Mnts NA | Slight Blw Nrml | NA
SC Foothills Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal | Below Normal
SC Piedmont Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal | Well-Below Nrml
GA NE Mnts/ Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal | Below Normal
GA Piedmont Below Normal | Below Normal | Well-Below Nrml
The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center (LMRFC) and the Southeast River Forecast
The 1-7 day future precipitation is derived from guidance produced
at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).
The long-term precipitation outlooks are derived from guidance
produced at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
Streamflow information is courtesy of the United States Geological
Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy...Georgia Power...
and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).
The general outlook is produced in collaboration with the LMRFC and
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
The next flood outlook will be issued by Friday, January 20th, 2016.
For the latest status of streams and mainstem rivers across the
region please visit:
QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...
This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements during
the most recent flood outlook period. Additional enhancements are
planned for future flood outlooks. Your feedback and recommendations
are encouraged in order to ensure this product meets user needs.
Please direct feedback, recommendations, questions, and comments to:
National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651