Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FGUS74 KHGX 191656
ESFHGX
200456-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1056 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE TRINITY RIVER AT LIBERTY HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 26 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE LIBERTY
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 18.8 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                 VALID [ 12/17/2014 - 3/18/2015 ]


LOCATION        FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
TRINITY RIVER
 CROCKETT        41.0  10.0 11.8 12.9 14.2 15.7 17.8 19.5 20.3 30.9
BEDIAS CREEK
 MADISONVILLE    19.0   6.1 11.7 13.3 14.1 14.6 15.2 16.2 16.8 19.9
TRINITY RIVER
 RIVERSIDE      134.0 131.9 131.9 132.0 132.1 132.2 132.3 132.6 133.0 133.9
LONG KING CREEK
 LIVINGSTON      19.0   3.7  4.9  7.0  8.0  9.3 11.2 12.5 14.2 18.5
LOWER TRINITY RIVER
 GOODRICH        36.0  11.7 12.7 14.2 16.5 17.1 19.6 21.7 22.8 25.5
RYE CREEK
 RYE             20.0   8.5 10.2 11.6 12.7 14.3 16.0 18.1 20.1 21.8
TRINITY RIVER
 ROMAYOR         40.0  15.5 16.7 18.4 19.9 20.5 22.3 24.1 25.2 27.5
 LIBERTY         26.0  11.3 13.2 15.8 17.9 18.8 21.0 23.0 23.8 26.1
 MOSS BLUFF      15.0   6.5  7.2  9.6 10.8 11.6 12.7 13.6 14.1 15.4


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$




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