Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FGUS72 KILM 161548
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NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-
181600-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1048 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

Rainfall during the last one to three months has been near to
above normal along the coast and near to below normal inland.
As a result, the area is about evenly split between abnormally
dry conditions and no drought conditions on the latest drought
depiction from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The table below summarizes precipitation amounts at area
observation sites through Thursday February 15th for various time
scales.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      4.62      3.72      0.90       124%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)     10.14      7.28      2.86       139%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     12.65     10.77      1.88       117%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     26.50     27.15     -0.65        98%
                ONE YEAR      65.60     57.61      7.99       114%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     76.64     67.81      8.83       113%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.33      3.01     -0.68        77%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      3.46      5.52     -2.06        63%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      6.93      8.59     -1.66        81%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     18.32     19.54     -1.22        94%
                ONE YEAR      42.99     43.52     -0.53        99%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     50.80     51.60     -0.80        98%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.67      3.63      0.04       101%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      6.98      6.85      0.13       102%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      9.18     10.22     -1.04        90%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     25.72     25.31      0.41       102%
                ONE YEAR      51.30     52.01     -0.71        99%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     57.27     61.71     -4.44        93%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.30      3.05     -0.75        75%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      4.22      6.18     -1.96        68%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      7.54      8.95     -1.41        84%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     15.88     19.14     -3.26        83%
                ONE YEAR      40.63     42.91     -2.28        95%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     50.20     51.40     -1.20        98%

Streamflow values across the area are generally at near to
slightly below normal values for this time of year and upstream
reservoir levels are mainly near to above normal. Soil moisture
conditions are at normal to slightly below normal levels.

During the next seven days, rain is expected Friday night into
Sunday and again on Thursday. Otherwise, the next week is expected
to dry and rainfall is forecast to be below normal. The eight to
fourteen day outlook also calls for below normal rainfall. The
outlook for March and for March through May from the Climate
Prediction Center calls for equal chances of above normal, normal,
and below normal rainfall.

In consideration of the above factors, this outlook calls for a
below normal risk of flooding through April.

The next scheduled Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
March 2nd.

$$

RAN



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