Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1254 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

AS THIS IS THE TAIL END OF THE DRY SEASON...SPRING FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS.  RAINFALL FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  HOWEVER THERE
HAS NOT BEEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NO RAIN AS COLD FRONTS HAVE
PRODUCED A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF RAIN ALMOST EVERY WEEK WHICH HAS
ALLOWED RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AND HAS
HELD OFF DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GIVES AN
EQUAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT THREE
MONTHS. CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL WOULD NOT PRODUCE SPRING
FLOODING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...ANY ONE SINGLE
EVENT THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FIVE
INCHES WOULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OVERALL...SPRING FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE THREAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE REGION.

THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THREAT FOR SUMMER FLOODING AS WE ENTER THE
RAINY SEASON IN JUNE IF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS FROM
NOW THROUGH MAY...AS RIVER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER GOING INTO
THE RAINY SEASON THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS.


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