Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
841 AM CST, Wednesday, March 1, 2017

                          COLORADO
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--

The Rocky Mountains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall.

As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the
mountains of the Arkansas River Basin have received approximately
113 percent-of-median precipitation and have accumulated 136
percent-of-median snowpack this water year. (A more detailed table
is included below.)  At the end of February, mountain reservoirs in
the Arkansas River basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were at 61
percent-of-capacity. This represents 105 percent-of-average storage
and 92 percent of last year`s storage.


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E

        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of Wednesday: March 1, 2017
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                    %                     %
                      Current  Median Median  Current Median Median
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000    7.7    6.8    113   10.1     9.5    106
BRUMLEY          10600   13.3    7.5    177   12.1    10.1    120
FREMONT PASS     11400   15.1   11.8    128   15.9    11.8    135
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760   20.1   12.1    166   16.7    11.8    142
SOUTH COLONY     10800   15.7   14.9    105   17.8    16.5    108
WHISKEY CK       10220   13.6    8.8    155   12.8    12.3    104
                                       -----                 -----
         Basin wide percent-of-average  136                   113

Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
and Total Precipitation values

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Outlooks for winter and
early spring (MAR-APR-MAY) indicate increased chance (40-50%) for
above normal temperatures throughout Colorado. The precipitation
outlook for the same period indicates equal chances for below, above,
or near median precipitation in the mountains and plains of Colorado.
There is a slightly better chance (33-40%) for below normal
precipitation along the Colorado/New Mexico border.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 2, 2017 indicates that the mountain
headwaters of the Arkansas River are not currently experiencing drought
conditions. However, conditions deteriorate significantly with eastward
extent. The plains of Eastern Colorado are experiencing widespread
Moderate Drought (D1) conditions, with a small aera of Severe Drought
(D2). The CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 16, 2017 shows that
drought conditions are expected to persist for the next three months
across the drought areas of Colorado.

Current estimates from the CPC indicate that soil moisture in the
mountains are near normal, with values between the 30th and 70th
percentiles.

The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a
greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point.
The table below contains a summary of some potential maximum stages
from the model output.

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Tuesday: February 28, 2017
                 Feb 28 - Jun 28 50% Exceedence
    Weekly
     Flood         50% exceedence    50% exceedence
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     9.0  7.5       7.4
 Salida        8.0  4.8       4.6
 Wellsville    9.0  6.3       6.0
 Parkdale      9.0  5.4       5.2
 Canon City   10.0  8.3       8.1
 Portland      9.0  5.2       4.9
 Pueblo        8.0  6.6       6.0


The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability
of flooding.

Estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing
Center (NOHRSC) indicate there is no current snowpack in the plains
of southeast Colorado. According to the CPC soil moisture estimates,
the plains of the Arkansas Basin are generally normal with values
in the 30th to 70th percentile. There is a small areas in Eastern
Colorado below the 30th percentile.

According to the USGS stream gages, flows along Fountain Creek in
central Colorado are near to above seasonal normals. The mainstem of
the Arkansas River is flowing at near to below normal levels. These
flows continue all the way to the Kansas border. At the end of February,
reservoirs affecting the Arkansas River below Pueblo (Meredith,
Trinidad, and John Martin) were at 24 percent-of-capacity. This
represents 95 percent-of-average storage and 62 percent of last year`s
storage.

The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding
greater than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of
flooding during the next 120 days at four forecast points in the
plains of southeast Colorado.

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Tuesday: February 28, 2017

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability
Station      Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding     Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             30                 6                 3
LAPC2             11                 4                 2
LMAC2              4                 3                 2

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been near to above average
in southeast Colorado, although the past several weeks have been
mostly dry. Most areas along the I-25 corridor received near normal
precipitation amounts for the last 3 months. The mountains to the
west of the I-25 corridor were near normal, as well.

Southeast Colorado is covered in Abnormally Dry (D0) or Moderate
Drought (D1) according to the U.S. Drought Monitor of March 2, 2017.
The CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 16, 2017 shows that
drought conditions are expected to persist in the next three months
across Southeast Colorado.

   *******************************************************
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NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN

The potential for spring flooding for northeastern New Mexico is
near normal. Normal conditions in northeast New Mexico reflect a
low probability of flooding. Flooding in New Mexico is generally
driven by rapid snow melt runoff or high-intensity rainfall.

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian
River in New Mexico. These mountains have experienced about 104
percent-of-median precipitation this water year and have accumulated
110 percent-of-median snowpack.

          S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
                    As of Wednesday: March 1, 2017
------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT  TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name    (Ft)                   %                     %
                       Current Median Median Current Median Median
------------------------------------------------------------------
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS

 CULEBRA #2      10500   16.4    10.4   158    11.9    10.1   118
 GALLEGOS PEAK    9800    9.7     9.8    99    11.7    11.5   102
 NORTH COSTILLA  10600    6.3     5.9   107     9.0     9.9    91
 RED RVR PASS #2  9850    9.0     6.8   132     8.2     7.9   104
 TOLBY           10180    8.4     7.2   117    10.0    10.1    99
 TRINCHERA       10860   12.1     7.9   153    12.1     8.9   136
 WESNER SPGS     11120   10.7    12.1    88    12.8    14.5    88
                                       -----                 -----
       Basin wide percent-of-average    110                   104

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Outlooks for
northeastern New Mexico indicate there are increased chances (>50%)
of above normal temperatures during the next three months.
Precipitation outlooks for the same period indicate increased chances
(40-50%) of below median precipitation.

Snow cover models from National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing
Center (NOHRSC) show no snowpack in the plains of northeastern New
Mexico. Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is generally near
normal at this time, with estimates between the 30th and 70th
percentile.

Many stream gages on the Upper Canadian River and its tributaries are
affected by ice at this time of year. A generalized statement of
current streamflow is therefore, difficult to make. However, the
Canadian River at Sanchez is currently running below normal, while
further downstream, the Canadian River at Logan is also showing below
normal flow. At the end of February, the contents of Conchas Reservoir
constituted 53 percent of the reservoir capacity and 66 percent-of-
average contents at this date. Contents of Eagle Nest Reservoir were
at 41 percent-of-capacity and 102 percent of last year.

Water-year-to-date (October 1 to present) precipitation in north-
eastern New Mexico in the Canadian River Basin is 95% of average. After
a dry October and November, December and January were much wetter.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 2, 2017 indicates much of Northeast
New Mexico is covered in Abnormally Dry (D0). There is a small area of
Moderate Drought (D1) in East-Central New Mexico, as well. The CPC`s US
Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 16, 2017 calls for drought
conditions to persist during the next three months.

A summary of some potential maximum stages from the ESP model output
are presented in the table below.


                 New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                    As of Tuesday: February 28, 2017
                      Feb 28 - Jun 28 50% Exceedence

                                                           Weekly
                      Flood 50% exceedence      50% exceedence
  Station            Stage(ft)  Maximum Stage (ft)  Maximum Stage(ft)
---------------------------------------------------------------------


Vermejo R @Dawson      9.0           5.9                 4.4
Cimarron R @Cimarron   5.0           2.3                 1.8
Mora R @Golondrinas    5.5           2.4                 1.9


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *        www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply           *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be near
normal this spring.  Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to
specific precipitation events.

Rainfall during the last 90 days has been unusual across southern
Kansas. Southwest Kansas was above normal for the period, but
Southeast Kansas was significantly below normal. South-Central Kansas
was a transition zone from wet to the west to dry to the east.

Snowpack estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate no snowpack in southern Kansas. Soil
moisture conditions in southern Kansas are varied, with near normal
estimates across Southwest and Southeast Kansas (30th to 70th percentile)
and above normal (>70th percentile) across Southwest to South-Central
Kansas.

Streamflows in far-western Kansas are generally near normal along the
Arkansas River. Conditions worsen toward the southwest and south-central
part of the state with gages below the 25th percentile. Flows improve to
near normal across the eastern part of Kansas, except the below normal
flows along the Missouri border.

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is near design conditions. U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs currently
have an average of 99 percent of their flood control storage available.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
indicates there are increased chances (40-50%) for above normal
temperatures across Kansas. The outlook indicates equal chances of above,
below, or near median precipitation during the same time period.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 2, 2017 indicates significant
dryness, with areas of Abnormally Dry (D0), Moderate Drought (D1), and
Severe Drought (D2) conditions across much of Western Kansas. Southeast
Kansas is currently experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions. The US
Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 16, 2017 indicates drought
persistence during the next three months.

The table below displays the probability of flooding for selected
Dodge City forecast points during the next 3 months. Current model output
indicates that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are
relatively low (< 20%).

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Tuesday: February 28, 2017

Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability
Station        Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
COOK1                 5                 2             Not Expected
BETK1                 3                 2             Not Expected
ENWK1                22                 9                  2
FRGO2                 8                 4             Not Expected
ZENK1                 8                 4             Not Expected


The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas
forecast points where the ESP model indicates a greater than 15
percent chance of minor flooding during the next 90 days.  These are
not extreme conditions and do not reflect an above normal potential
for flooding.

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Tuesday: February 28, 2017

Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability
Station         Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
ALMK1               19                 12                  2
ARCK1               49                 11                  4
ARKK1               20                  3             Not Expected
ATOK1               20                  5             Not Expected
BLPK1               16                 11                  6
CBNK1               49                  4             Not Expected
CNUK1               41                 18                  5
COWK1               22            Not Expected        Not Expected
CFVK1               19                  7             Not Expected
CTWK1               33                 19             Not Expected
DRBK1               20                 10                  3
EREK1               42                 37                 20
FLRK1               37                  3             Not Expected
FRNK1               33                  5             Not Expected
HAVK1               17                 10                  6
HTCK1               49                 29                  3
HTDK1               19                 10                  2
IDPK1               30            Not Expected        Not Expected
IOLK1               20                  2             Not Expected
MDKK1               41                 17             Not Expected
MULK1               21                 15                 11
OSWK1               48                 40                  8
OXFK1               30                 22             Not Expected
PECK1               19                  3             Not Expected
PPFK1               49                 41             Not Expected
PLYK1               29                 19             Not Expected
SEDK1               17                 10                  8
TOWK1               23                 16                  2
WFDK1               30                 12                  5
EMPK1               40                 19             Not Expected
EPRK1               19                 17             Not Expected
NEOK1               35                 30             Not Expected

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
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   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific heavy rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions
do not necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring
flooding.

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been significantly below
average, with much of the area seeing less than 75% of normal.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
indicates there are increased chances (40-50%) for above normal
temperatures across Southwest Missouri. The outlook indicates equal
chances of above, below, or near median precipitation during the same
time period.

Snowpack estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate no snowpack in Southwest Missouri.
Soil moisture in Southwest Missouri is currently near to below normal
(20th to 70th percentile). Streamflow in that part of the state is
significantly below normal for this time of year.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 2, 2017 indicates all of Southwest
Missouri is experiencing Moderate Drought (D1) conditions. CPC`s US
Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 16, 2017 indicates little potential
for the improvement of drought conditions during the next 3 months.

The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points
where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of
minor flooding over the next 90 days.  These are not extreme conditions
and do not reflect an above normal potential for flooding.

                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri
                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Tuesday: February 28, 2017

Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability
StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7               12                  4             Not Expected
TIFM7               14                  7                  2
WCOM7               28            Not Expected        Not Expected
BXTK1               21                  5             Not Expected

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *        www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply           *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


ARKANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in
response to specific heavy precipitation events.  However, the
Arkansas River may flood in response to upstream conditions. There
are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to
alter the flood potential of the area.

Precipitation totals during the last 90 days for western Arkansas
have been significantly below average. Many areas across the
northwest half of the state have seen less than 75% of their normal
precipitation during this period.

Snowpack estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate no snowpack in Arkansas, which is
normal. Soil moisture conditions in western Arkansas are
significantly below normal (<30th percentile). Many areas are even
lower (5th to 20th percentile).

Corps of Engineers projects in southwestern Arkansas are near levels
approximating design conditions. They have approximately 99 percent
of their flood control capacity available at this time. Streamflows
in western Arkansas are below normal.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
indicates there are increased chances (40-50%) for above normal
temperatures across Arkansas. The outlook indicates equal chances of
above, below, or near median precipitation during the same time period.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 2, 2017 indicates significant
drought conditions across western Arkansas. Much of the area is
in Severe Drought (D2), with a small area near Ft. Smith
designated Extreme Drought (D3). Areas near the Missouri border are
in Moderate Drought (D1).  CPC`s Seasonal Drought Outlook of February
16, 2017 calls for possible improvements to the drought conditions
during the next three months.


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *        www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply           *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


OKLAHOMA

The potential for flood conditions in Oklahoma will be normal across
the state. Flooding in Oklahoma usually occurs in response to specific
heavy precipitation events.

Precipitation totals for the last 90 days are well above normal across
western Oklahoma and considerably drier across the eastern part of the
state. There are widespread areas in the east that received less than
75 percent-of-average precipitation during the past 90 days. A few
scattered areas across the western half of Oklahoma have received more
than 200 percent-of-average rainfall during the same period.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for increased chances (>50%) of above normal temperatures
across southwestern Oklahoma, with slightly less increased chances
(40-50%) of above normal temperatures across the remainder of the
state. The outlook also calls for equal chances of above, below, or
near normal precipitation across Oklahoma.

Soil moisture across western Oklahoma is currently dominated by
above normal values (>70th percentile). Values across the eastern
part of the state are extremely dry (5th to 20th percentile). Central
Oklahoma soil moisture is near normal (30th to 70th percentile).

Stream and river discharges in Oklahoma are generally above seasonal
normals across Southwest Oklahoma. Discharges are below normal in
Northwest Oklahoma, and significanly below seasonal norms in Eastern
Oklahoma.

Reservoir storage in Oklahoma currently varies between the structures
in the Arkansas River system and those in the Red River system.  U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers projects in Oklahoma are near levels
approximating design conditions. The reservoirs in western Oklahoma
have apprximately 110 percent of their flood control storage available
at this time. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects in eastern Oklahoma
are also near levels approximating design conditions. Available capacity
in the Arkansas system is approximately 105 percent of designed flood
control storage. Available capacity in the Red River system is
approximately 110 percent of design flood control storage.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 2, 2017 indicates much of Oklahoma
is experiencing some form of drought conditions, with the exception of
Southwest and South-Central Oklahoma along the Red River. Much of
Oklahoma is at least experiencing Moderate Drought (D1). Areas of
Northwest, Central, and Eastern Oklahoma are seeing Severe Drought
(D2).

CPC`s Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 16, 2017 calls for the
possibility of improvements in drought conditions across Oklahoma, with
the exception of the Oklahoma Panhandle.


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *        www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply           *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************

TEXAS

The potential for flood conditions in north Texas will be near normal
this year. In the Panhandle, the potential for flooding will also
be near normal. Flooding in North Texas and the Panhandle usually
occurs in response to specific heavy precipitation events.

Precipitation totals for the last 90 days across northern Texas east
of Wichita Falls have been significantly below normal. On the other
extreme, much of the Texas Panhandle received above normal precipitation
during the past 90 days.

Streamflows across all of northern Texas are a mixed bag, with above,
near, and below flows common. Flows in the Panhandle are generally running
below season normals, except right along the Oklahoma border. Streamflows
along the Red River near Wichita Falls are generally above normal. Near or
below normal flows are common across Northeast Texas.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) Seasonal Outlook for the next
three months (MAR-APR-MAY) calls for significantly increased chances (>50%)
of above normal temperatures across all of Texas. The Outlook also
indicates there are equal chances of above median, below median, and near
median precipitation across much of Texas. There is a slightly increased
chance (33-40%) for below median precipitation across western Texas near
the New Mexico border.

Soil moisture conditions at the end of February are generally above
normal across much of the western half of Texas (>70th percentile). Much of
the remainder of the state are near normal (30th to 70th percentile), with
the exception of far-northeast Texas, where soil moisture is below normal
(<30th percentile).

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 2, 2017 shows a couple of Abnormally Dry
(D0) areas in the Panhandle and a small area of Abnormally Dry (D0),
Moderate Drought (D1), and Severe Drought (D2) in Northeast Texas.
Otherwise, the remainder of North Texas is currently expeciencing no
drought. The CPC US Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 16, 2017 indicates
drought conditions across North Texas are expected to improve during the
next three months.


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *        www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply           *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource
Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction
Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil
moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook.

$$



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