Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 052005

National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
January 5, 2018

                       FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Great Salt Lake, Sevier, Virgin and Price/San Rafael and Duchesne
River Basins.

The 2018 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at
this time for the Weber, Provo, Six Creeks, Duchesne, San Rafael and Virgin
river basins. December precipitation was below or much below average for
all basins in Utah. Snowpacks in Utah are below to much below average and
range from 6 percent of median in the south to 83 percent of median
in the far north of the state.

Below average precipitation and above average temperatures have resulted
in below and much below average volume forecasts in all basins in Utah with
the exception of the Logan River and Bear River headwaters which
have near average volume forecasts.

It should be emphasized that snow accumulation conditions could change quite a
bit before the runoff begins. Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of
snowmelt runoff and consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also
roughly correspond to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that
an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the
melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

CBRFC/B.Bernard, A.Nielson, T. Cox, P.Kormos


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