Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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993
FNUS53 KAPX 010642
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
242 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-012015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
242 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1300...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.21 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
                    PATCHY FOG AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.41 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.20 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-012015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
242 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.29 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.46 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.21 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-012015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
242 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.18 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
                    PATCHY FOG AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.26 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-012015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
242 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.27 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.25 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-012015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
242 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.31 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.39 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.18 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. LOWS AROUND
50. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MLR



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