Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 301956
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MILD AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO COOL
TEMPERATURES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-010815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
356 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL
                    2000. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.21 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-010815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
356 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-010815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
356 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 2000. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AFTER 2000 UNTIL
                    2400...THEN PATCHY DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.36 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-010815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
356 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE
                    AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.35 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-010815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
356 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL
                    2000. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.11 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AM





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