Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 270745
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...WARM AND GUSTY NORTHEAST LOWER WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ALL AREAS...

.DISCUSSION...
RECENT RAINS WILL START THE DAY OFF DAMP...BUT WARM AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER WHILE THICK LOW CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG SWEEP IN ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER. THIS
LOWER CLOUD AND DAMP CONDITION WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST LOWER
BY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT TONIGHT...BUT MORE SO
THURSDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-272030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000...THEN AREAS OF FOG AFTER 1400.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    LIKELY OR CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1050).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2100. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 2400.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 2100 UNTIL 2400. AREAS OF
                    FOG UNTIL 2100. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-272030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1980).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN OR
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 9 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-272030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000...THEN AREAS OF FOG AFTER 1400.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    LIKELY OR CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY OR
                    CHANCE OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 2100...THEN SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN PATCHY FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-272030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000...THEN AREAS OF FOG AFTER 1400.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN
                    LIKELY OR CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2100. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 2400.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 2100 UNTIL 2400. AREAS OF
                    FOG UNTIL 2100. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-272030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 1000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1000...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2030).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN OR
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS
AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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