Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 170953
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
553 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...

A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS...WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC TODAY.

SOME SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60S DEGREES...
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES OVER
ONTARIO.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-172030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
553 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    UNTIL 0900. CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 1200 UNTIL
                    1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-172030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
553 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-172030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
553 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (960).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-172030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
553 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (700).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-172030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
553 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS AROUND
50. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SR





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