Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FNUS53 KDTX 161953
FWFDTX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southeast Michigan
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
344 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...High pressure to the northeast of the region will
continue keep Southeast Michigan dry this afternoon. Light easterly
flow off the lakes will hold some degree of moisture over the
region, likely supporting a min RH drop to just under 50 percent
this afternoon. Strengthening low pressure forecast to lift into the
northern Great Lakes on Thursday will force a warm front across
southern Michigan. This system will bring a humid airmass into the
area, supporting showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier
conditions will overspread the region on Friday as this system exits
to the east of the Great Lakes.

MIZ047-048-053-060-061-171200-
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Including the cities of Midland-Bay City-Saginaw-Owosso-Flint
344 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2 am then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A slight chance
                    of. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Min temperature.....62-67.
   24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........91 percent.
   24 hr trend......6 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......260-460 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (85-95 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms until 8 am then
                    showers and thunderstorms. Chance of
                    precipitation 80 percent.
Max temperature.....76-81.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........77 percent.
   24 hr trend......25 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3620-4120 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 mph becoming south
                    around 30 mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (1320).
Pcpn amount.........0.51-0.75 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 10 pm then
                    partly cloudy (65-75 percent) until midnight then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms until 8 pm then chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2 am. Chance of showers
                    after 8 pm. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Min temperature.....63-68.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........96 percent.
   24 hr trend......5 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......840-1040 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph becoming west around 5
                    mph in the late evening and early
                    morning then becoming southwest around
                    25 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........0.26-0.50 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 8 am then a slight chance of
                    showers. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Max temperature.....73-78.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 hr trend......12 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4300-4800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 25 mph decreasing to around 5 mph
                    in the late morning and early afternoon then
                    increasing to around 25 mph early in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (1110).
Pcpn amount.........None.


$$

MIZ049-054-055-062-171200-
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-Lapeer-
Including the cities of Bad Axe-Caro-Sandusky-Lapeer
344 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
                    precipitation 20 percent.
Min temperature.....60-65.
   24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........93 percent.
   24 hr trend......6 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......200-400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 8 am until
                    2 pm then showers and thunderstorms likely.
                    Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Max temperature.....74-79.
   24 hr trend......1 degree cooler.
Min humidity........77 percent.
   24 hr trend......22 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3330-3830 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph becoming south around 30
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (1190).
Pcpn amount.........0.26-0.50 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 2 am then
                    partly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 4 am then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely until 2 am then chance
                    of showers. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Min temperature.....63-68.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........96 percent.
   24 hr trend......4 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......880-1080 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 20 mph becoming southwest around 5
                    mph in the late evening and early
                    morning then increasing to around 25 mph
                    after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........0.51-0.75 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 8 am then a slight chance of
                    showers. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Max temperature.....72-77.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........64-72 percent.
   24 hr trend......9 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4110-4610 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 25 mph becoming west around 5
                    mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon then increasing to around 25 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (1220).
Pcpn amount.........0.01-0.05 in.


$$

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-171200-
St Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Port Huron-Howell-Pontiac-Warren-Ann
Arbor-Detroit-Adrian-Monroe
344 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2 am then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Chance
                    of precipitation 50 percent.
Min temperature.....62-67.
   24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........91-98 percent.
   24 hr trend......3 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500-700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........0.06-0.10 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms until 8 am then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely. Chance of
                    precipitation 70 percent.
Max temperature.....77-82.
   24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........76 percent.
   24 hr trend......25 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4650-5150 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 mph becoming south
                    around 30 mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (1740).
Pcpn amount.........0.51-0.75 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 10 pm then
                    partly cloudy (55-65 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely until 8 pm then chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms until 2 am then
                    a slight chance of showers. Chance of
                    precipitation 70 percent.
Min temperature.....64-69.
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
Max humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 hr trend......5 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......920-1120 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 30 mph becoming west around 5
                    mph in the late evening and early
                    morning then becoming southwest around
                    15 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0).
Pcpn amount.........0.26-0.50 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers until 2 pm. Chance of precipitation
                    30 percent.
Max temperature.....75-80.
   24 hr trend......1 degree cooler.
Min humidity........57-67 percent.
   24 hr trend......16 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......6040-6540 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph becoming west around 5
                    mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon then increasing to around 25 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (1600).
Pcpn amount.........None.


$$


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
around 60. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 80s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 70s.

$$

MR


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