Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 182222
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

STREAMS AND RIVERS IN VALDEZ/CORDOVA REGION ARE STILL HIGH... BUT
CONTINUE TO FALL. CONTINUED RAIN IN THE SEWARD AREA WILL KEEP STREAM
LEVELS HIGH IN THAT AREA.  HIGH WATER LEVELS... DUE TO RECENT
RAIN... ARE MOVING DOWN THE KENAI RIVER.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WEST WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
DILLINGHAM KEPT THE HEAVIEST RAINS DOWN ALONG THE GULF COASTAL
REGIONS AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS INTACT OVER THE MAINLAND AT LEAST FOR
ANOTHER DAY.  THIS WAVE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE GULF AND
STRENGTHENS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER COOK INLET THROUGH THE EASTERN
KENAI AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN BEGIN TO
SPREAD EAST AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TAKES SHAPE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE ONSHORE SLOW
SWITCHES FROM A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

THIS MORNINGS FREEZING LEVELS RANGED BETWEEN 3100 FT AT BARROW TO
6300 FT AT FAIRBANKS OVER THE MAINLAND... RISING SLIGHTLY TO 6800 FT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FREEZING
LEVELS WITH LOWER MOST SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND NORTH
WEST.



PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :   5.10
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PP RG :   3.27
UPPA2    UPPER TSAINA SNOTEL  PC RM :   2.30
GRVA2    GRANDVIEW SNOTEL     PC RM :   2.30
WLCA2    WOLVERINE CREEK NR L PP RG :   2.25
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PP RG :   1.77
TUGA2    TURNAGAIN PASS SNOTE PC RM :   1.50
UNRA2    UPPER NUKA RIVER NR  PP RG :   1.30
ALSQ9    ALSEK RIVER ABOVE BA PP RG :   1.29
EXGA2    EXIT GLACIER         PC RZ :   1.23
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC RM :   1.20
NUKA2    NUKA GLACIER SNOTEL  PC RM :   1.20
KCKA2    KACHEMAK CREEK       PC RM :   1.20
SVRA2    SILVER SALMON LAKES  PP RG :   1.08
RESA2    RESURRECTION RIVER A PP RG :   0.89
GDWA2    GIRDWOOD FIRE STATIO PC RG :   0.89
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC RM :   0.80
PAWD     SEWARD               PP RZ :   0.80
GRAA2    GRANITE CREEK RAWS   PC RG :   0.75
MFBA2    MIDDLE FORK BRADLEY  PC RM :   0.70
PACV     CORDOVA              PP RZ :   0.69
BRMA2    MIDDLE FORK BRADLEY  PP RG :   0.60
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PC RG :   0.59
VDEA2    VALDEZ HANDAR        PC RP :   0.53
PAKN     KING SALMON          PP RZ :   0.53
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :   0.50
MOGA2    MOTHER GOOSE LAKE RA PP RG :   0.50
GCRA2    GROUSE CREEK DIVIDE  PC RM :   0.50
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PP RZ :   0.49
PASO     SELDOVIA             PP RZ :   0.48



...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AKPEN... SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MAINLAND... AND THE PANHANDLE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTHSLOPE... SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER... AND OVER THE
PANHANDLE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH



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