Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 211732
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 21 2017

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE SNOW GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IS RELEASING. WATER LEVELS ON THE SNOW
RIVER ARE STEADILY RISING AND ARE REFLECTIVE OF PREVIOUS OUTBURST
EVENTS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS ON KENAI LAKE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS FLOOD THE ROAD TO PRIMROSE CAMPGROUND
AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH THAT HAS
BEEN BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION....

ON THE MAP THIS MORNING WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
SEWARD PENINSULA... A LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND A
RIDGE PLOWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A COMBINED LOW OVER THE MUCH OF
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE SWINGS THRU THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS UP MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
NORTHERN GULF TO STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS PROCESS WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THIS
REGION.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION, ALEUTIANS, AND UP INTO THE
COOK INLET ARE AND NORTH GULF. SOUTHEAST SHOULD RECEIVED BETWEEN A
HALF INCH AND AN INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ENDING AT 4 AM AKDT TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
SNTA2    SAND POINT CRN       PC R4 :   0.70
MOGA2    MOTHER GOOSE LAKE RA PP RG :   0.64
PASD     SAND POINT           PP RZ :   0.57
PAPH     PORT HEIDEN          PP RZ :   0.55
CHCA2    CHIEF COVE RAWS      PP RG :   0.55
PAII     EGEGIK               PP RZ :   0.53
FPKA2    FOURPEAKED RAWS      PC RG :   0.51
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :   0.50
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PC RG :   0.50
PAPB     SAINT GEORGE ISLAND  PP RZ :   0.49
PADK     ADAK                 PP RZ :   0.48
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PC R4 :   0.48
FAFA2    PFAFF MINE NEAR KING PP RG :   0.47
DELA2    DELTA RIVER          PP RG :   0.45
PADQ     KODIAK               PP RZ :   0.44
PAPN     PILOT POINT          PP RZ :   0.42
PHLA2    PHELAN CREEK NR PAXS PP RG :   0.41
PAJC     CHIGNIK              PP RZ :   0.40
PAVC     KING COVE            PP RZ :   0.39
COVA2    COVILLE RAWS         PP RG :   0.39
PAKN     KING SALMON          PP RZ :   0.38
DNLA2    DENALI 27N CRN       PP RG :   0.33
CONA2    CONTACT CREEK        PP RG :   0.32

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND... COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND... AND
AKPEN.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND... AND
ALEUTIANS. INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CAN
BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$
ETH



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