Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE YUKON RIVER BREAKUP FRONT REMAINED 12 MILES UPSTREAM OF
FORT YUKON AT NOON TUESDAY. THE VILLAGE OF FORT YUKON COULD
POSSIBLE EXPERIENCE MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOODING.

SEE THE BREAKUP MAP AND THE BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR CURRENT BREAKUP
ACTIVITY... INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-BREAKUP RELATED FLOODING IS CURRENTLY LOW
FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA IS PUSHING RAIN AND SNOW INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND UP THE WEST COAST. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
KEPT SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE AND THE PANHANDLE. THE FRONT IN THE WEST WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. THE FAR EASTERN
MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

FREEZING LEVELS WERE NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT HAVE NOW CLIMBED TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000
FEET.


SELECTION OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4AM:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==
PACD     COLD BAY             PP RZ :   0.93
PAVC     KING COVE            PP RZ :   0.64


...FORECAST PRECIPITATION...

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS (0.5+) SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN COAST TODAY WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS (QPF) GRIDS...

DAY 1-3 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS... WITH
SOME MANUAL EDITS. DAY 5-7 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE GFS... WITH
OCCASIONAL MANUAL EDITS.

...LONG RANGE...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF THE MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

....................................................................

THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY DAY UNTIL FREEZE UP
BEGINS IN THE FALL.  A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION
IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

JEP
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