Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 030800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

STLT IMAGERY AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT TROF
ACROSS THE NE GULF/BIG BEND REGION HAS SHIFTED NE AND INLAND AND
LEAVING A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85.5W.
TROFFING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW GULF ALONG ABOUT 93W AND SHIFTING
WNW. UPPER TROFFING SNAKING SW THEN S ACROSS NW AND W PORTIONS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS W PORTIONS AND FORECAST TO DIG
SWD TODAY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THEN SW AND INLAND FRI
WHILE N PORTION SINKS SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
WEAK HIGH ACROSS NE GULF BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE AND WILL DRIFT
WNW AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS BY SAT WITH WEAK RIDGING SE TO NW
THAT WILL DRIFT S BY MON. THIS TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS AND ALLOW YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH
TO BECOME ACTIVE AND SHIFT WNW EACH NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO RECENT SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DIG S INTO NE
GULF SUN NIGHT-MON WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF UPPER VORT
DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A VERY WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS
THE SW N ATLC SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AND WEAKENS...FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SE TO W CENTRAL PORTIONS ALONG 22N. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SW
CARIB WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY LEAVING DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT N OF 17N WHERE
SHEARED TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE STILL RESIDES.

WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING SE TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEXT FEW DAYS AND PROMOTE
SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT FOR PULSING NOCTURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...BUT GFS NOT INDICATING
WINDS REACHING 25 KT...UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED ON A 1016 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N66W. THIS PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 15 KT IN ELY TRADES
ACROSS SE PORTIONS. SERIES OF TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS NE PORTIONS
AS MID OCEANIC TROUGH DOMINATES THE MID LATS. TROUGHING AND BROAD
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DROP IN OFF GA AND NE FL
COASTAL ZONES AND SINK SE ACROSS W PORTIONS ...REACHING NW BAHAMAS
BY 72 HRS THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT TO THE NE AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. MODELS COMING IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF CENTRAL ATLC LOW NEXT FEW DAYS AND
ASSOCIATED TROFFING EXTENDING WELL SW TO OFFSHORE OF NE CARIB AND
PREFER A UKMET-GFS BLEND THERE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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