Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 270730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGING N OF THE AREA SUPPORTS MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-4 FT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF SUN AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH
TUE. THE ONLY REMAINING OUTLIER TO THIS SCENARIO AMONG THE
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS IS THE UK. THE EC AND GFS AGREE IN MOST
RESPECTS AND WERE USED AS BASIS FOR FORECAST GRIDS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOWER PRESSURE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS KEEPING AN
ATYPICAL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH
LATE SUN. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC MON
AND TUE WHICH WILL BRING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL
GENERATED BY GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING INTO THE
TROPICAL WATERS N OF 18N E OF 57W TODAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A GLOBAL HAWK RECON MISSION OVERNIGHT SHOW
A 1010 MB CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR 31N66W. THE CENTER IS EXPOSED
BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN
57W AND 67W THROUGH MON AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS W-NW TOWARD GA
AND S CAROLINA. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS WAVE DISTURBANCE IS ENHANCING SE WINDS AND SEAS IN
ITS NE QUADRANT INCLUDING ATLC WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH
SUN...AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TS
GASTON WILL PERSIST IN FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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