Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 190901 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

CORRECTED SW N ATLC SECTION TO INCLUDE MENTION OF WINDWARD
PASSAGE

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1011 MB LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N84W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N85W AND TO THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST BUOY AND C-MAN STATIONS ARE REPORTING
NW TO NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-89W WHERE SEAS
ARE UP TO 9 FT. IN ADDITION...THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0326 UTC LAST
NIGHT CAPTURED THESE WINDS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE MUCH
LIGHTER W OF THE FRONT WITH BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA NOTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE NLY FLOW BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 93W. W OF 93W...WINDS
HAVE VEERED TO THE E-SE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE.
ELSEWHERE W OF THE LOW AND FRONT...SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE
EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE FAR NW GULF.

ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE FAR SE GULF ARE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW TO TO MOVE INLAND NORTHERN
FLORIDA THIS MORNING PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN GULF. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST SE OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND
WED...OTHERWISE HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH WED.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES USED NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
AS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES E ACROSS THE SE
GULF...AND TOWARDS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND NW CUBA. STRONG HIGH
PRES NE OF BERMUDA IS BRINGING A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS ATLC
S OF 24N...AND OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE A COUPLE OF SHIPS RECENTLY REPORTED SUCH SPEEDS
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 11 FT.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING THEN BEGIN
TO SHIFT S TO NEAR 30N BY SUN EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT
TO SLACKEN AND WINDS TO DIMINISH IN SPEEDS. THE GULF OF MEXICO
FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER THIS
MORNING...AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REACH TO NEAR 20N BY
SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MON EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.

MIXED ELY TRADE WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NE SWELL TO MIX
ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN MAINTAING
SEAS OF 8-9 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
BERMUDA SW TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST BUOY
AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT SE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BUOY 41010 RECENTLY REPORTED
COMBINED 8 FT SEAS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0144 UTC LAST NIGHT
CAPTURED SOME OF THOSE WINDS. THE SAME PASS CAPTURES A SWATH OF
E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA WITH 25-30
KT WINDS WITHIN 35 NM OF THE HISPANIOLA COAST. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE
GENERALLY E TO SE IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

VERY NEAR UPCOMING CHANGES WILL BE RELATED TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED
GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH THE LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA NEAR 31N79W THIS EVENING WITH FRONT EXTENDING SW
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL THEN REACH TO NEAR 31N78W
AS 1011 MB WITH THE COLD FRONT TO 28N78W AND TO NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT WILL
DEVELOP TO THE E OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.
THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 31N78W AS 1010 MB NEAR DAYBREAK SUN WITH
THE FRONT TO 28N78W TO CENTRAL CUBA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS N WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE A
FETCH OF STRONG NLY WINDS TO THE W AND NW OF THE LOW. THIS AREA OF
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE S TO NEAR 28N BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS
THE LOW REACHES TO NEAR 31N77W AS 1011 MB. BY THEN...THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH TO NEAR 28N74W AND TO EASTERN CUBA. EXPECT SEAS
TO BUILD TO AROUND 11 OR 12 FT IN THE FAR NW WATERS BEHIND THE LOW
ON SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 6-8 FT ON MON AS THE FRONT REACHES
FROM NEAR 31N70W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY MON
AFTERNOON...AND TO THE FAR SE WATERS BY EARLY TUE BEFORE MOVING
E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUE EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS REACH LOW
VALUES OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA DURING TUE AND
WED...HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE N CENTRAL AND
NE PORTIONS WED FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW WINDS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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