Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 301733
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1233 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE.

THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF A COLD FRONT...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS...
EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE SE TX COAST WILL LOSE
IDENTITY ACROSS THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT WHILE THE WESTERN SEGMENT
STALLS BRIEFLY ALONG 25N...THEN LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINNING
EARLY SAT. THE WARM FRONT FRONT MAY INDUCE A FEW TSTMS AS IT
PASSES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ON SUN. EXPECT NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW N
OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...CLOCKING TO THE E-SE AT 15-20 KT N OF
THE WARM FRONT ON SAT INTO SUN...AND BECOMING SLY 15-20 KT ACROSS
MOST WATERS ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE
NW GULF WATERS ON SUN NIGHT AND RACES SE THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON
MON EVENING WHILE LEAVING THE FAMILIAR NE-SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS REMNANT
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N ON TUE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES
DEVELOPMENT NEAR 25N95W BY SUNRISE WED. EXPECT N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW
BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT... EXCEPT N 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N97W LATE MON INTO MON EVENING. MAY SEE E-SE
20-25 KT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM HISPANIOLA TO OVER
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS DENOTED IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NE 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT/SEAS 6-9 FT MAINLY IN
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMANS. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD RELAX ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CLOCKING TO
THE E-SE 10-15 KT ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON EVENING...WITH N-NE 10-15 KT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 8-12 FT SEAS EXPECTED WITHIN 240 NM OF
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO 30-35 KT/SEAS 10-13 FT WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT THIS NOCTURNAL MINIMAL GALE
PATTERN TO REPEAT EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE-E 15-20 KT
TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CARIBBEAN W OF 67W AND EASTERLY
10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
SUPPORTING 15-20 KT CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF
HISPANIOLA ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WHICH ARE DENOTED IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS. AN W-E SURFACE RIDGE FROM ACROSS FL EXTENDING ALONG 27N
WILL SHIFT SE TONIGHT AND SAT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS
WILL RACE E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...FROM 31N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SAT EVENING...AND
THEN LOSES IDENTITY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS
ON SUN. SOUTHWESTERLY 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS FORECAST N
OF 30N E OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON... WITH SW-W-NW 20-30 KT
WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE N OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT AND 600
NM...GRADUALLY EXPENDING OUT TO 900 NM LATER...TO THE W OF THE
FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE AREA
NEAR 30N69W ON SUN EVENING WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PORT
CANAVERAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
SUN NIGHT AND FURTHER INCREASE TO A 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE N OF 30N
NEAR 77W EARLY MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE A
SW-W-NW 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED N OF 28N ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT PASSES A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY TUE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING
COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT
     INTO WED.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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