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000
AGXX40 KNHC 240710
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE 00Z ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AS WELL
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
MOVE TO ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN NEXT WEEK. A BLEND
OF THE 00Z MWW3 AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ATMOSPHERIC MODEL RUNS
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS...AVAILABLE
IN HIGHER RESOLUTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WAS BLENDED WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS SAT AND PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE. SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT SLACK. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL MWW3 FIELDS. ONLY SEAS IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARRYING A SMALL AREA OF SOUTHERLY
25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING. BOTH MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 0214 UTC
ASCAT PASS INITIALLY. THE WINDS HERE WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE SW N ATLC
THROUGH TUE. THE GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WERE BLENDED WITH THE SIMILAR
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.