Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 241745
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM NORTHERN
CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W WILL
MOVE SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IN SE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW
COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT...THEN SHIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. A STATIONARY RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF MON THROUGH TUE. S RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
FRESH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT...CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
E-SE FLOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...THEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN
THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W WILL
MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND SUN...THEN MOVE INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE...REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN WED. A
LOW ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
TO 6-7 FT WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM E CUBA
TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE SAT. SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
A TROPICAL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND NE HONDURAS BY LATE SAT...THEN MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN THROUGH TUE...REACHING THE COAST
OF BELIZE TUE NIGHT OR WED. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND NE HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
RUNS IN LONG TERM UNTIL GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS IS REACHED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED S OF MIAMI NEAR 24N80W WILL
RACE NE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A
MINIMAL GALE FORCE LOW NEAR 26N76W THIS EVENING. THE GALE CENTER
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE FORECAST ZONES NE
OF CUBA WITH WINDS TO 35 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKEN S
OF BERMUDA AS IT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...EXTENDING
EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO NE CUBA...THEN STALL FROM 28N65W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH
SAT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND
DISSIPATE MON...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION WEAKENS E OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OFF THE
FL COAST NEAR 30N79W SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE NE OF THE AREA MON...
HELPING TO RE-ORIENT THE RIDGE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE ENE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N W OF 65W MON THROUGH WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SAT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING SAT.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SAT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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