Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 201825
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VALID 12Z WED DEC 24 2014 - 12Z SUN DEC 28 2014


A STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE--THOUGH GLEANING ANY SOLID DETAILS
FROM ANY GIVEN OPERATIONAL MODEL ON THE INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE ALASKA REGION IS MORE ART THAN SCIENCE
IN LIGHT OF THE CHAOTIC RANGE THAT PRESENTS. PREFERRED THE
EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS AN ANCHOR POINT AS OPPOSED TO THE
GEFS MEAN--WHICH CENTERED THE HEART OF THE SURFACE LOW ACTIVITY
ODDLY FAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF CONTINUITY AND THE WHOLE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. KEPT AT LEAST SOME OF THE 00Z/20 OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IN THE BLEND TO ADD FIBER, SO TO SPEAK, TO THE DIFFUSE MASS FIELDS
THAT CHARACTERIZE THE ARITHMETICALLY-AVERAGED ENSEMBLE
MEANS--PARTICULARLY EARLIER IN THE FORECAST WHEN THE BEST
CORRELATION BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND ITS ATTENDANT
MEAN EXISTS.


CISCO

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