Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 261214
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
813 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

VALID 00Z FRI MAY 27 2016 - 00Z FRI JUN 03 2016

TODAY`S MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE OFFERS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE
EXTREME PERIPHERY OF EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGS A FRONT CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS.  TRAILING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPORT EASTERLY OR EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES
IN THE LIGHTER HALF OF THE SPECTRUM MON-WED, WEAKENING SOME BY
THU.  EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO HAVE A SEA
BREEZE FOCUS THIS WEEKEND WHEN GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES THE LIGHTEST
TRADES AND POSSIBLY A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEN PERHAPS DRIFT A BIT HIGHER AGAIN WED-THU.

RAUSCH

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