Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 271221
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
820 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 00Z THU AUG 28 2014 - 00Z THU SEP 04 2014

27/00Z ECENS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC CYCLE APPEARED TO MAINTAIN
THE BETTER CONTINUITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK (DAY
5-6). WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS ASIDE--THE ECENS/ECMWF WAS PREFERRED
WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRUCTURE OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC--INCLUDING HAWAI`I. BELIEVE ITS
DEPICTED OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM WEST TO EAST SEEMED MORE
REALISTIC VERSUS THE 27/00Z GFS/GEFS--WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A
FAST BIAS OVER SEVERAL KEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC
AND CONUS. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LOCATED INVOF THE ITCZ AND WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF REMNANT TROPICAL DYNAMICS/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
`LOWELL` AND `MARIE` IN THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC (BETWEEN MEXICO AND
HAWAI`I).

DO RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE 26/12Z & 27/00Z ECENS TO HANDLE THE
DAY 5 THROUGH DAY 7 PERIOD--MAINLY FOR DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC AND DOWNSTREAM. BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE SOME IMPACT IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WITH REORGANIZATION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND HAWAI`I.

VOJTESAK

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