Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 041222
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
721 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2016

VALID 00Z MON DEC 05 2016 - 00Z MON DEC 12 2016

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN FOR HAWAI`I...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER HAWAI`I FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG AROUND 170W BY MIDWEEK AN POTENTIALLY CLOSE OFF AN
UPPER LOW, THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THIS IDEA
AND WHETHER TO CLOSE OFF THE NORTHERN PORTION (AROUND 30N) OR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION (AROUND 20-22N). RECENT GFS RUNS FOCUS MORE ON
THE SOUTHERN PORTION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS FOCUSED NO THE NORTHERN
PORTION AND THE RECENT 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET CLOSE OFF BOTH. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY, A BLEND/COMPROMISE POSITION VIA THE ENSEMBLES
(NAEFS MEAN LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN) MAY HAVE TO
SUFFICE. WAVES OF RAINFALL, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THOUGH WITH INTERMITTENT
DRIER PERIODS. ENSEMBLES STILL FAVOR AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AROUND
165-170W BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.


FRACASSO

$$




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