Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 061843
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

VALID JUL 06/1200 UTC THRU JUL 10/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

ALOFT, THERE ARE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN THE QUICKEST TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE 12Z UKMET THE SLOWEST -- AGAINST THE
USUAL CANADIAN/UKMET BIASES.  THE 00Z GFS SHOWED AN INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION ALOFT WHICH BEST ALIGNED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GEFS
MEANS, WITH A SURFACE SOLUTION THAT MATCHES THE 12Z ECMWF INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE 12Z GFS APPEARS BEST, WHICH IS
PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE EXISTING MODEL
SPREAD.



TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
SYSTEM MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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