Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 021832
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID MAY 02/1200 UTC THRU MAY 06/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES THROUGH WED
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT...DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
  COAST ON WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHEAST...THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT AS SEEN IN THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC SPREAD
AND THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A DIFFERENT SURFACE PATTERN OFFSHORE WITH
THE FRONT.  THE 12Z CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST TO PROGRESS THE
SYSTEM INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD AND REPRESENT A COMPROMISE POSITION BUT THE
ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS VARY WIDELY VALID 12Z/05 FROM THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO SRN NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING CONFIDENCE NO
BETTER THAN AVERAGE.


CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WED...REACHING THE
  MID-ATLANTIC STATES THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A POSITION A BIT NORTH OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE 500 MB LOW BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN SOUTH.  ALOFT, THE 12Z
ECMWF IS NOW SOUTH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
 THE ENSEMBLES CLUSTER A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA ON 00Z/06 WHICH IS NEAR A COMPROMISE OF THE
12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF.


COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUE
CLOSED LOW REACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WED/THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH THESE SYSTEMS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...


OTTO/ROTH
$$





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