Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 141839
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

VALID FEB 14/1200 UTC THRU FEB 18/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT HERE, SO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM CROSSING THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THERE ARE SLIGHT DEPTH ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ALOFT, WHICH HAVE
LED TO LATITUDE ISSUES WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.  THE 12Z NAM IS
OUTSIDE THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, AND NOT CONSIDERED
USEFUL.  WHILE THE 12Z GFS CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE MEANS AND LIE
BEST WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING, THE 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN FRINGE.  DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN GOOD IN THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
MAKING THEIR SOLUTIONS UNPALATABLE.  HOWEVER, TO ACCOUNT FOR THEIR
SHIFT, A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SRN PLAINS/EAST COAST SYSTEM MONDAY & TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM WAS QUITE STRONG ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY
SLOW WITH ITS PROGRESSION, SIMILAR TO UKMET RUNS FROM SATURDAY AND
FITTING ITS USUAL BIAS BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.  PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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