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FXUS06 KWBC 041901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 04 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

TODAY`S MODELS EXHIBIT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT TROUGHS OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND NEAR THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE CONUS, AND RIDGING OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICTIONS.

500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
CONUS AND ALASKA, AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND INTERIOR
WESTERN CONUS, AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE
ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGHS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS FOR THE TOOLS OVER ALASKA.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

MODEL FORECASTS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FAVOR A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SMALL OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, WITH SLIGHTY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA. THE TROUGHS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WESTERN ALASKA, AND
THE ALEUTIANS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND A RELATIVELY STABLE
PATTERN, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY A DEAMPLIFING FLOW PATTERN AND SMALL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 20080806 - 20020731 - 19620724 - 19920730


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 19620723 - 20080805 - 20020731 - 19930805


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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