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FXUS06 KWBC 021924
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 08 - 12 2016

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN CANADA/THE NORTHEAST CONUS, THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND THE BERING SEA, WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS EXTENDING TO WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA, AND THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF BASED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY
INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, AND
MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAY`S
500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MOST OF ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
REMAINING U.S. REGIONS AND THE ALEUTIANS.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC CONUS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE EXPECTATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THE TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE ALEUTIANS, AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 10 - 16 2016

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND OVER THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO ALASKA. DESPITE THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS WEAK
ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST, NEAR THE GULF COAST, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST
COAST, OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS. THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.

THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS TILT THE ODDS TO
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE RIDGE OVER
THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATIONS FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS OFFSET BY LARGE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD, LOW MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY AMONG THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800428 - 20090413 - 19910509 - 19910430 - 19550516


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800427 - 20090413 - 19910430 - 19910508 - 20060430


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 08 - 12 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   N    B
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    B
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 10 - 16 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    B    N
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     N    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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