Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 272044
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 28 2015 - 00Z MON MAR 02 2015

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...

...MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND
MOGOLLON RIM...

...A WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT AN AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UP TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...


THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN
EXPANSIVE TROUGH WHILE A PAIR OF RIDGES ANCHOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND CARIBBEAN, RESPECTIVELY. THE LACK OF A RIDGE OVER THE U.S.
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
STATES SHOWS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE DAILY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST IN TIME. THIS GENERALLY EQUATES TO
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WHILE LOWS PLUMMET WELL INTO THE TEENS.
ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SWOOP THROUGH THE PLAINS HELPING REINFORCE THE
CHILLY READINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ABOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. INITIALLY THE MORE INLAND TRACK THIS
SYSTEM TAKES WILL NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO MUCH PACIFIC MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. AS THE TROUGH CURVES OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD FINALLY BE ABLE TO DRAW LARGER AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENT RAIN/SNOW TOTALS. WHILE
PROVIDING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A
STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN, FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
FARTHER INLAND. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALONE, THE MOGOLLON RIM
CAN EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
DESK SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 FEET OF THIS WILL BE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, DURING THE SAME PERIOD, THE SAN JUANS IN
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MAY SEE IN UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH EQUATES TO SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW. THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING SUCH ROBUST TOTALS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE VAST COVERAGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL CREATE A MESSY SITUATION WHERE ICE, SLEET, AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE. IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST WILL HELP DRIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS EASTWARD. GULF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MUCH OF THIS MILDER AIR OVERRIDING THE SUBFREEZING SURFACE
LAYER. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS MEASURABLE ICE ANYWHERE FROM
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER
SEPARATE AXIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY CONGREGATING OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI UP THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT, PLEASE READ THE
QPFHSD ON THE WPC PAGE UNDER THE HEADER DISCUSSIONS.



RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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