Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 241950
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

VALID 00Z MON JUL 25 2016 - 00Z WED JUL 27 2016

...HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN U.S...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST...


HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY UNDERNEATH OF A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION ON
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO MAYBE TRIPLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES NEAR 110 ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. VALUES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES AS A WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION. STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
BY TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND THE ROCKIES,
WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW IN THE REGION KEEPS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WE BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.


SANTORELLI


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$





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