Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FXUS01 KWBC 231959
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

VALID 00Z FRI MAR 24 2017 - 00Z SUN MAR 26 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...PRIME CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UP
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

A ROBUST SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A DEEP PULL OF WARM MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW
PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS IS
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY FUEL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING,
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED
A PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREATS. THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD, ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  PLEASE REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NORTHEAST OF THE LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE EPICENTER FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MEANWHILE, ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TONIGHT, BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. AND ON THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT, STRONG WINDS ARE IN PLACE.
THIS IS COUPLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS, CREATING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRES TO RAPIDLY SPREAD -- NUMEROUS COUNTIES
FROM SOUTHWEST WYOMING SOUTHWARD TO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
HAVE HIGH WIND AND RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ACROSS THE WEST, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM COASTAL CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
BEFORE MOVING INLAND. AS USUAL, OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
IN PLACEMENT OF THE MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS MAY BE ACROSS THE SISKIYOU AND SHASTA RANGES WHERE THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BE STRONGEST. PRECIPITATION
WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. LOCATIONS ABOVE 5,000 FEET IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD SEE SNOW IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADAS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW COULD FALL ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS DURING THIS TIME.

WIX/CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.