Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 200838
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
437 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...

...ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND/TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS---WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LONE STAR STATE. THIS STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
OUTER BANKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST SHORELINE.

ELSEWHERE, A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL RACE ALONG THE
US-CANADIAN BORDER, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG ITS
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND REACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND---MEANWHILE ITS
LEADING EDGE PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND COALESCES
WITH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

VOJTESAK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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