Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 051745
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 05 2015

SYNOPSIS: EARLY IN THE PERIOD, A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE GULF OF

MEXICO. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE REAR SIDE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE

EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AREAS

OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE

ALEUTIANS. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN AND

NORTHERN ALASKA. DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DURING WEEK 2, AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST
TO

MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, THE PLAINS, AND ALASKA.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST, SUN-WED, MAR 8-11.

PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA AND THE

ALEUTIANS, SUN-THU, MAR 8-12.

SIGNIFICANT WAVES FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS, MON-WED, MAR 9-11.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA,
MON-THU,

MAR 9-12.

FLOODING LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS

AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI-THU, MAR 13-19.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT

LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHEAST, FRI-THU, MAR 13-19.

A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL

NEW YORK, SAT, MAR 14.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND

EASTERN ALASKA, THU-SAT, MAR 13-14.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR HAWAII (ESPECIALLY MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND), SUN-WED,

MAR 8-11.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN,

CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY MARCH 08 - THURSDAY MARCH 12: AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST, A MOIST RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET

ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUN A STATIONARY FRONT STALLED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS

LEADS TO HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS
AND

LOUISIANA GULF COAST MAR 8-11. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD

NORTH AND EASTWARD, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF

ADDITIONAL HAZARD SHAPES AT THIS TIME.



ANTECEDENT RAINFALL, LEADS TO LIKELY RIVER FLOODING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST

GEORGIA.



AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL ALASKA AND THE

ALEUTIANS. HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE

ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA MAR 8-12. IN ADDITION,

SIGNIFICANT WAVES (IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET) ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ALEUTIANS MAR
9-

11. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA LEADS TO MUCH BELOW

NORMAL TEMPERATURES (20-30 DEGREE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES) FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND

EASTERN ALASKA MAR 9-12.



A 500-HPA TROUGH IS PREDICTED NEAR AND NORTH OF HAWAII. AS A RESULT, SEVERAL

MODELS PREDICT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, 2-5 INCHES FOR THE ISLANDS IN GENERAL,
AND

LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND DURING THIS

PERIOD.

FOR FRIDAY MARCH 13 - THURSDAY MARCH 19: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS

AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING MAR 13-19 DUE TO AN AREA OF

UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALSO
LEADS

TO A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES,

MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MAR 13-19. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
MUCH

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK MAR 14.



UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LEADS TO A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES

FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA MAR 13-14.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED MARCH 3, 2015, INDICATES A
SLIGHT

DECREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2 TO D4) IN
THE

PAST WEEK FROM 16.42 TO 15.66 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$




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