Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 020038
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
837 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 01Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...NORTHERN FLORIDA / SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

LATEST SATL/RADAR IMAGERY AT 23Z SHOWED WEAK CIRC ABOVE THE
SURFACE IN THE EXTREME NE GULF JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER
NRN FL NEAR CROSS CITY FL.  PCPN PATRN THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST LIGHT SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR SOME STRONGER BANDS
ROTATING TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION.  CONVECTION AS
OF 00Z WAS STILL RATHER SHALLOW WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING BEING
DETECTED.  STILL...SYSTEM IS EMBEDD WITHIN PLUME OF VERY HIGH MSTR
WITH PWS BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES AND THERE IS THE PSBLITY OF
NOCTURNAL FLAREUP OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRC AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY ACRS NRN FL/ERN FL PANHANDLE REGION OVERNIGHT.  AT
THIS TIME LATEST HRRR EXPERIMENTAL RUNS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTNL...INDICATING MAX AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR
SO...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE 12Z HI RES MODEL RUNS.
THUS FEEL ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WOULD BE RATHER ISOLD.

SULLIVAN
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