Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 311045
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
644 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...VALID 12Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 01 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 N HOB 10 ESE INK 15 ENE E38 60 WNW MRF MMCS 45 SSW LRU
50 SSW DMN 75 SSW DMN 35 SE DUG 30 E DUG 55 NE SAD 25 S 4SL
30 ESE E33 30 NNE VTP 15 W TAD 45 SE RTN 15 W TCC 50 N HOB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E PVJ 20 NNE MLC 25 NNW HOT LLQ 25 W MLU 35 S SHV 20 E TRL
15 NNW DTO 35 WNW GLE 10 E PVJ.


ARKLATEX REGION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODEST LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW DRAWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ~2
INCHES INTO AND IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV/SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER OK SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THRU PARTS OF ERN TX INTO SRN AR/NRN
LA TODAY AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY HELPS SHIFT 850 HPA INFLOW
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD.  BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS BELIEVE 00Z NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS
ACRS THE ARKLATEX REGION, WHILE 00Z HI RES RUNS SEEM TO BE
CAPTURING THE MORE SRN TRENDS OF THE STGR CONVECTION ACRS NRN TX
THIS MRNG.  THIS MAY YIELD A NEW MCV THAT WOULD LIKELY TRACK EWD
NEAR THE NRN LA/SRN AR BORDER TODAY GENERATING STEADIER ORGANIZED
RAIN/TSTMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MCV WITH TRAILING
CONVECTION...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN
TX.  KEPT AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE BASED ON LARGE MODEL
SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME 1-2" AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4+ INCHES WHERE
CELL REGENERATION MAY OCCUR, SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS.


SOUTHERN CO THROUGH NM INTO WESTERN TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PERSIST ACRS THIS REGION
WITH POTNL FOR STG SLOW MOVING CONVECTION FOCUSING A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH TODAY, ESPECIALLY THRU THE FAVORED ERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF SRN
CO INTO NM/EXTREME WESTERN TX..UNDER A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  PRECIPITABLE OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES COMBINED WITH 850 HPA
INFLOW OF 25-30 KTS THIS MORNING AND CAPES ~1000 J/KG HAS BEEN
GENERATING TRAINING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM, WHICH SHOULD
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TX UNTIL ~14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING DUE
TO DECREASING INFLOW AND CAPE.  LATER ON, AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION DUE TO INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY TODAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD AREAS OF
TALL SKINNY CAPES WITH NO LOW-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS ALONG WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW OF LESS THEN 10 KTS ESPECIALLY ACRS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NM/EXTREME WESTERN TX SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW
ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO SOME RECENT RAINS WHICH GIVEN THE ABOVE
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS.

SULLIVAN/ROTH
$$





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