Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 010831
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...VALID 12Z SAT OCT 01 2016 - 12Z SUN OCT 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE HTL 10 SW ACB 10 WNW MGN 20 NW PZQ 25 ENE APN 15 NE OSC
20 ENE HTL.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 ESE MQI 10 NNE ORF 15 ESE NYG 20 ENE FDK 20 N APG 15 S WWD
70 E OXB.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S CWLE 20 NE CWVN 50 NNE LWT 40 NW 3HT 20 N HLN 20 NW GTF
50 WSW HVR 20 ESE CYXH.


...NORTHERN LOWER MI...

A DEEP LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD.
 THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LIFT NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...WITH SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE  AMOUNTS MOVING
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER AS
VEERING WINDS CLOSE OFF ACCESS TO ATLANTIC MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAL
AVERAGES TO BE LESS THAN THEY WERE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MI EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
AMOUNTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY HEAVY AMOUNTS THAT DO
OCCUR MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED RUNOFF CONCERNS.

...DELMARVA/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...

WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST AND THE MEAN
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING NORTH ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND THEN
INTO THE DELMARVA AND CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.  INTERACTING WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS.  ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS MAY PROVE
PROBLEMATIC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DELMARVA AND ALONG
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAY.  FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN LOW
ACROSS ACROSS THE REGION -- A REFLECTION OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS
THAT HAVE FALLEN  ACROSS THE REGION.

...CENTRAL MT...

GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD.  MODEST
MOISTURE AFFORDED BY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS.  THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL MT...WHERE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER JET FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE.  LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR RUNOFF CONCERNS SHOULD HEAVY AMOUNTS OCCUR.

PEREIRA


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