Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 210012
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
811 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

...VALID 01Z THU SEP 21 2017 - 12Z THU SEP 21 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
MKE 10 ENE GBG 45 SE CDJ 30 WSW CDJ 15 SSE OXV OVS 20 WNW CLI
15 NE GRB MKE.


0100 UTC UPDATE

BASED ON THE LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR TRENDS (WEAK RAINFALL RATES)
ALONG WITH THE LATEST QPF SUITE...HAVE REMOVED THE "MARGINAL" RISK
AREA ACROSS CAPE COD...MARTHA`S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

HURLEY


1900 UTC UPDATE

NORTHERN MO---FAR EASTERN IA---FAR NORTHWEST IL INTO SOUTHERN WI

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO ADD A MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM NORTHERN MO---NORTHEASTWARD INTO
FAR EASTERN IA---NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS THAT WERE PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND LEAVE THE FRONT
PARALLEL TO THE INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE 0000 TO
1200 UTC TIME FRAME TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS FRONT FROM NORTHERN MO---NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR EASTERN
IA---FAR NW IL AS MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTERSECTS THIS
FRONT.  THE HI RES GUIDANCE OF THE NSSL WRF---ARW AND NAM CONEST
ARE THE MOST EMPHATIC WITH HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE PRECIP
TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS---DEPICTING SOME 2"+ TOTALS.  THESE
SOLUTIONS DO NOT LOOK UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION...ALTHOUGH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE NEW DAY 1 QPF
WERE NOT AS HIGH...GENERALLY .50-1"+.  A PERIOD OF SLOW MOVING
CELLS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED RUNOFF
CONDITIONS.

ORAVEC

$$





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