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000
FXUS66 KEKA 142138
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
238 PM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Rainfall and high elevation snow continues to taper off
into this afternoon. Gusty NW winds will develop overnight into
Monday as a high pressure ridge builds along the coast. A return to
summer-like conditions and warm interior temperatures is expected
this week, with coastal stratus and elevated NW winds likely.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The additional surge of moisture associated with
the strong cutoff low will continually move southeast out of the
region this afternoon. Into this evening and overnight, a high
pressure system will build in the low pressure system`s wake.

As the high pressure system takes over the region, there will be a
return to more northerly to northwesterly flow. This return of
northwest onshore flow will effectively cut off the supply of cold
air and mid level moisture to the low pressure system. As a
result, precipitation will taper off as the low continues to
progress southeast into Southern California. Gusty NW winds are
expected this evening and into Monday morning as a strong
pressure gradient develops between the departing low and building
high pressure over the Pacific. Gusts approaching 30 mph are
possible along exposed ridges and coastal headlands of Cape
Mendocino, with breezy conditions likely along all coastal areas.

Remaining entrained cold air will dissipate early this week as the
ridge continues to build into the Pacific Northwest. Radiational
cooling will be limited overnight and into Monday morning with the
lingering low level moisture and cloud cover, so frost or freezing
conditions will most likely not be a concern. A rapid return to
summer- like conditions will ensue as interior temperatures warm
into the 70`s by Tuesday, with potential for highs in the 80`s in
the valleys for the latter half of the week. Broad high pressure
subsidence will likely allow coastal stratus to return beneath a
marine inversion by mid week as NW winds subside.


&&

.AVIATION...Shallow moisture and increasing onshore winds will
likely result in MVFR conditions through tonight. Conditions are
forecast to improve some at coastal terminals as northerlies
increase, though low cloud cover and mist will probably redevelop.
Recent rainfall and moist ground along with partially clearing skies
will lead to fog and low clouds in the river valleys, even for UKI,
late tonight into early Monday morning. DB


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds will steadily increase tonight through
Monday. Potential for gale gusts will increase late Monday afternoon
into the evening hours downwind of Cape Mendo and Cape Blanco.
Forecast coverage of gale gusts is below 50%, but increases during
the evening per the HREF probabilities Monday evening, especially
for the northern outer waters. Coverage appears sufficient through
the night to warrant a marginal gale. Supercritical flow with
expansion fans both downwind of Cape Mendo and Cape Blanco will
probably continue to yield localized regions or narrow corridors of
gusts to 35-40kt Tue and Wed. Steep northerly short period waves
will build in response to the steady state northerlies the next 3
days, peaking to around 13 ft on Wed over the outer waters.

Axis of strongest northerlies and largest seas will most likely
shift westward toward the latter portion of the week and conditions
will ease up and improve - especially for the inner waters. DB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
     Tuesday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM Monday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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