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000
FXUS66 KEKA 111101
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
401 AM PDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...One more day of warm and dry conditions today before
the cool down for Friday and into the weekend in association with
the approaching amplified upper level trough with the prominent
closed low at its base. A slow warming trend will ensue toward mid-
week next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Models are still consistent with the upper level closed
low taking aim south of our area along the coast. Although models
have generally ticked back up the QPF amounts, even the upper end of
the range of ensemble members doesn`t go too far more than an inch
of rain for the 3-day period of Friday through Sunday. Still not a
particularly heavy amount of rain for a three day period.  There was
a hint of some thunder possibilities for today for eastern portions
of the CWA from some models yesterday, and looks like even more of a
possibility now, with eastern Trinity and Mendocino Counties
standing about a 20% risk of have some thunder this
afternoon/evening. The central valley still stands the best chance
of thunder today, though.

Two main cold fronts push through over the next several days. The
first will be on Friday/Friday evening, North wind behind the first
front will be focused mainly out on the water. For Tuesday, coastal
wind gust potential derived from model ensemble members to give a
substantial chance of over 40 mph (e.g. Eureka with about a 10-15%
chance of these north wind gusts for Tuesday, behind the second cold
front. Tuesday ensembles indicate it could be climatologically
significantly strong north wind on Tuesday, so we will keep an eye on
this.

Models have tamped down on the speed of the warm-up next week,
thanks in part to the follow up trough focused just north of our
area. This staves off the warm-up a bit longer, and could even give
us some rain particularly in the northern CWA, along with a shot at
some thunder. /MFH


&&

.AVIATION...Stratus inundates the Redwood coast once again this
morning, with MVFR to IFR conditions expected to continue through
nearly the first half of today. A weak shortwave is currently
approaching the PNW, with high cloud associated with this feature
streaming by aloft. This feature may lift the stratus this morning
to MVFR...but may allow it to linger for longer into the day. In any
case, most of the stratus should mix out by this afternoon. Stratus
is expected to redevelop and move onshore late this evening and
tonight behind this weak shortwave, although another approaching
shortwave should disrupt this building layer early Friday morning,
possibly clearing any stratus before dawn Friday. Some scattered low
cloud is possible in Mendocino early Friday morning as the marine
layer deepens...although VFR should persist until then. /TDJ


&&

.MARINE...Northerlies weaken through the day today from north to
south as a weak surface trough approaches the coast, however gusts
to 30 kts are expected once again this afternoon and evening in the
lee of Cape Mendocino. Winds further weaken Friday as a surface low
approaches the west coast...and wind directions look highly variable
as this low nears the coast Friday afternoon and Saturday. Isolated
squalls with variable wind speeds up to 20 kts are possible during
this time across the waters as we remain under the low center. Winds
are expected to become more organized from the north on Sunday in
the wake of this feature as it exits the region. A mid period WNW
swell continues to decay over the next few days, while short period
northerlies trend down over the next couple of days, following the
wind. A fresh NW swell is expected this weekend, possibly filling in
Saturday...although details will depend on the track of this
incoming surface low. /TDJ


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455-
     475.

&&

$$

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