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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252006
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
206 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist and unstable air mass remains in place across the region
this afternoon. This will result in the development of another
round of thunderstorms as the afternoon continues to heat up. Much
like Saturday, storms will initiate over higher terrain to the
north and track southeast across the Borderland through the
evening hours. More of the same is expected Monday, however
coverage of storms should be a little less as high pressure aloft
begins to build east. High pressure will eventually result in a
return to hot and dry conditions starting mid week and continuing
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture continues to stream into the region on the heels of
southeasterly surface flow. The 12Z KEPZ RAOB revealed a PW value
of 1.03 inches and forecast models indicate that most of the
region will experience PW values elevated above one inch through
today and even Monday. As this moist atmosphere heats up it will
continue to destabilize, leading to additional rounds of showers
and storms the next few afternoons and evenings.

As for this afternoon, initial storm development has been located
across the higher terrain of the Sacramento mountains and to a
greater extent, the northern reaches of the Gila Wilderness.
Steering flow around upper level high pressure anchored over
southern Arizona will result in a general southeastern movement of
storms as the day progresses. In addition storms coming out of
the Gila will be aided by a weak short wave that is currently seen
entering northwest New Mexico as it too works it`s way around the
upper high.

Current meso analysis indicates MUCAPE values of 1200 to 1500
J/kg and LI values of -4 to -6 across much of the region. Enough
directional shear should exist to induce some mid level rotation
with a risk for some storms producing large hail later today. At
the same time DCAPE values of 1200 to 1400 J/kg indicate the
possibility of strong downburst winds as well.

Storm activity will eventually wind down later tonight before
returning under similar circumstances Monday afternoon. However it
appears that the overall coverage of storms Monday will be down
some from today as the upper high begins to build slowly east. A
few additional storms will also pop up Tuesday, but by mid week
the high will have taken over much of the region stretching west
to east along the international border. The result will be a
return to deep westerly flow allowing for drying and warming
across the board. Triple digit heat will be returning to the
lowlands by Wednesday and continuing into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/00Z-27/00Z...
P6SM SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150-200 through much of the period.  Expect
cluster of VRB25G40KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN020-040 to be ongoing over
northern and eastern areas and moving through area about 06Z-09Z.
Mainly isolated storms then expected until after 18Z when scattered
storms redevelop over eastern and northern areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture will slowly be getting pushed eastward over the next couple
of days.  After another active afternoon and evening today, with
locally heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail with storms, coverage
will mainly be confined to the eastern and northern areas Monday. By
Tuesday, westerly low level winds will push moisture to past the Rio
Grande valley with any activity over Otero and Hudspeth counties.
Stronger zonal flow will kick in toward the end of the week with
some breezy conditions along with temperatures near the 100 degree
mark for the lowlands.  Depending on how quick fuels dry out, could
have some areas near critical conditions on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  94  73  97 /  30  10  30   0
Sierra Blanca           67  90  68  92 /  20  30  30  10
Las Cruces              69  94  70  97 /  30  10  20   0
Alamogordo              68  91  66  95 /  50  30  40  20
Cloudcroft              48  70  49  71 /  60  50  40  30
Truth or Consequences   70  92  71  96 /  30  30  20  20
Silver City             64  88  65  93 /  50  40  10   0
Deming                  68  95  69  97 /  20  10  20   0
Lordsburg               65  95  65  98 /  30  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro      71  93  72  96 /  30  10  30   0
Dell City               63  93  63  95 /  40  40  20  20
Fort Hancock            69  95  69  98 /  20  20  20  20
Loma Linda              69  87  69  92 /  40  30  40  10
Fabens                  68  95  68  97 /  30  20  30   0
Santa Teresa            67  94  68  96 /  30  10  20   0
White Sands HQ          73  92  74  95 /  50  20  30  10
Jornada Range           64  93  64  96 /  40  20  20  10
Hatch                   65  96  66  96 /  30  20  20   0
Columbus                70  97  69  97 /  20   0  20   0
Orogrande               71  92  71  96 /  40  20  30  20
Mayhill                 55  74  56  80 /  60  50  50  30
Mescalero               51  80  51  82 /  50  50  50  30
Timberon                51  76  52  80 /  60  40  40  30
Winston                 59  85  59  88 /  50  60  30  20
Hillsboro               61  90  63  94 /  40  40  20  10
Spaceport               60  94  61  97 /  40  30  20  10
Lake Roberts            51  86  54  89 /  50  50  20  10
Hurley                  63  87  64  92 /  30  30  20   0
Cliff                   57  95  60  98 /  50  30  10   0
Mule Creek              61  93  62  95 /  50  20   0   0
Faywood                 61  90  62  95 /  20  40  20  10
Animas                  70  97  69  99 /  30   0  10   0
Hachita                 67  96  66  99 /  20   0  10   0
Antelope Wells          70  95  71  97 /  30  20  30  10
Cloverdale              66  93  66  95 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27-Laney/26-Grzywacz



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