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FXUS64 KEPZ 241033
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
333 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather continuing through Monday with near record
high temperatures. Changes are in store afterward however, as a
Pacific frontal system moves in Tuesday, along with a cool
eastward push after the front rolls through. Still looks dry but
Tuesday and Wednesday look much cooler, though temperatures will
only be slightly below normal. Another cool front moves in
Thursday to keep the cool air in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models finally in good agreement on eventually breaking down our
old eastern Pacific blocking high. The forecast period will be a
tale of two differing regimes.

First regime...today through Monday...upper high persists just off
the Baja coast and will slowly drift east as block busting deep
cold Pacific trough nudges the high along. Upper high actually
looks like it may have made a slight west drift with the WV
imagery but should drift over the Baja Peninsula Saturday
morning, then drift slowly east-southeast. High level moisture
continues to spill over the top of the high, giving some patches
of cirrus. Expect temperatures today to approach or break daily
records. Weak disturbance aloft spilling down front side of high
on Saturday will push a weak, shallow back door cool front into
the area. Not much cool advection with it, though just enough to
cut a couple of degrees off the highs for Saturday and Sunday. Axis
of the ridge drifts just to our east Monday as Pacific trough
moves onshore of the west coast. This will turn our surface winds
back to southwest, becoming breezy in the afternoon. Near record
temperatures again Monday. Winds could cause some blowing dust
along the southern lowlands and create some driving hazards,
mainly near the Lordsburg Playa.

Second regime...Tuesday through Thursday...autumn makes a return
as Pacific trough plows through with surface cold front. Trough
and front reach New Mexico Tuesday morning, with back door front
pushing in Tuesday night behind the Pacific front. Timing will be
critical; only Pacific front making it in before afternoon should
allow around a 10 degree drop. On the other hand if the back door
front begins filtering in by the afternoon, highs could drop in
the vicinity of 15 degrees. GFS/ECMWF differ on the trough, with
the GFS faster and not as deep. Going with this solution for now;
trough east of the area by late Tuesday afternoon. No real shot at
precip, with just a few clouds with the front. Wednesday will
remain cool, perhaps around 5 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Second
upper trough spills across the Central Rockies Wednesday night and
will allow yet another back door front into the CWA by Thursday
morning. GFS showing this front with even colder air, so continued
cool on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/12Z-25/12Z...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast timeframe. Skies
will be SKC to FEW250 with a few passing cirrus clouds. Surface
winds will be VRB to light across the area. Afternoon winds west-
southwest 10-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued warm and dry through Monday, with temperatures
approaching record levels. Min RHs around 15-25%, a bit lower on
Monday. Breezy winds on Monday could allow fire conditions to
approach Red Flag criteria. Cooler temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday as cold fronts push through the area. Temperatures back
to normal or slightly below. Min RHs up a bit to 20-30%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 78  48  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           80  45  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              77  43  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              75  41  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              62  35  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   77  42  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             73  41  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  78  42  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               77  43  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      78  49  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               82  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            82  46  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              76  42  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  80  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            77  44  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          78  45  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           76  33  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   78  35  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                79  43  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               76  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 73  38  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               72  37  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                73  36  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 74  33  75  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               76  42  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               76  32  75  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            76  33  77  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  73  40  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   76  28  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              76  26  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 75  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  78  42  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 78  42  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          80  41  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              79  42  77  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Dennhardt


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