Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 260911
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
311 AM MDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Quite noticeable weather changes are in store for the Borderland
beginning today. Our region will sit between a Pacific storm
system just to our west, and surface high pressure to our east
through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. This
places us within a region of increased moisture and cooler air
behind several cool fronts from the east and storm and rain
generating dynamics from the west. The bottom line will be more
clouds, cooler temperatures, and scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning later today and persisting through the
remainder of the week. Expect periodically gusty and breezy east
winds with the frontal passages. A few storms will likely become
strong to severe and bring isolated areas of large hail and
damaging winds. Other storms will likely produce heavy rain and
local flash flooding. Stay informed on local weather and forecasts
through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a digging trough over the
western U.S. with a fairly dry swath of mid and upper air over our
region. Thus upper trough will remain parked to our west for the
remainder of the week with a low forming over AZ. This system does
back our mid and upper winds to a bit more SSW from SW...but the
main plume of subtropical moisture is well east and will be hard
to coax west over our region. However the near surface evolution
will result in pulling moisture west into our forecast area.
Persistent high pressure over the Southern Plains will push cool
fronts into the area...first one today. Additional east frontal
pushes will continue to arrive through the week. Each one progged
to arrive with breezy to windy and gusty winds across the Southern
Deserts and Far West Texas. Dewpoints and PWs will more than
double over the next 24hrs with the introduction of the easterly
winds. PWs over 1" will keep our atmospheric moisture above the
90th percentile for late SEP. Dewpoints near 25 degrees this
morning will rise to near 60 degrees WED and THU.

We look aloft and see plenty of dynamics to be streaming over this
new moist and unstable airmass as an upper jet parks overhead with
lobes of PVA shearing across the forecast area. We also see
diffluent flow aloft the help with vertical ascent. The vertical
wind profile will lend itself to organized storms with punch as we
see plenty of speed and directional shear. The frontal boundaries
are also likely to serve as a focus for storm formation thanks to
low-level convergence boundaries.

Bottom line for the forecast will be increased clouds, decreased
temperatures, and rain and thunderstorm chances in the scattered
and possibly numerous range across the region. POPs in the east
zones today...then all zones WED into FRI...then focusing again
over east zones late FRI into SUN. CAPEs in the 1000 to near 2000
J/KG means there is potential for severe storms bringing large
hail and damaging wind. With PWs so high there will also be a
threat of very heavy rain and local flash flooding.

The main system to our west finally looks to lift out and then
pass by our region late SUN into early MON. This will end our east
winds and bring a drier west flow over the region. Thus we end
POPS from west to east Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures through this forecast cycle should average below
normal with daily highs 4-8 degrees below normal through SAT...and
then back to normal or above SUN and MON.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/12Z-27/12Z...
Dry and VFR conditions west of the Tularosa Basin, Otero Mesa and
El Paso county through 21Z. East of the Rio Grande...winds turning
to NE-E with FROPA. Winds BCMG040-090 at 7-15KTS. VSBY P6SM Skies
SKC-SCT080-100 through 18z. Aft 18z and east of Black Range to
KDMN SCT070 SCT-BKN120-150. ISOL-SCT TSRA. Areas of 1-3SM in +RA.
PSBL GS and VRBL gusts 30-40kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper low and low pressure trough over Arizona will park to our
west through the rest of the week. At the surface high pressure
over the central U.S. will keep a strong and more moist east push
into the region beginning today...and lasting into the upcoming
weekend. Several back door cool fronts will move west through the
forecast area this week. They will likely bring breezy to gusty
east winds and reintroduce low and mid-level moisture back into
the area. Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to start
today over the eastern half of the area and across the entire
area by Wednesday. Some of these storms could become strong to
severe with potential for localized flash flooding. Temperatures
behind the front will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal with
relative humidities remaining above 30 percent. Winds will
occasionally be breezy to windy out of the east through Friday
before decreasing for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 82  61  75  60 /  30  50  40  50
Sierra Blanca           77  56  73  56 /  40  50  40  40
Las Cruces              80  58  74  57 /  40  60  50  40
Alamogordo              76  57  76  56 /  30  50  40  40
Cloudcroft              55  43  57  43 /  60  60  50  70
Truth or Consequences   79  55  72  56 /  30  70  80  60
Silver City             75  52  69  52 /  10  50  70  60
Deming                  81  58  75  56 /   0  70  60  50
Lordsburg               81  57  77  57 /   0  40  40  40
West El Paso Metro      80  61  74  61 /  30  60  40  50
Dell City               76  56  70  57 /  40  40  40  50
Fort Hancock            81  59  76  59 /  30  50  40  50
Loma Linda              73  55  67  55 /  30  50  40  50
Fabens                  82  60  74  59 /  30  50  40  50
Santa Teresa            81  59  74  59 /  30  60  40  40
White Sands HQ          79  59  73  59 /  30  50  50  50
Jornada Range           80  57  75  56 /  40  60  50  50
Hatch                   81  58  75  57 /  40  70  60  50
Columbus                81  59  77  58 /   0  60  60  40
Orogrande               77  58  74  58 /  30  50  40  50
Mayhill                 59  45  58  46 /  60  60  60  70
Mescalero               64  46  62  46 /  60  60  50  60
Timberon                61  46  63  46 /  50  50  50  60
Winston                 72  48  65  46 /  30  70  80  60
Hillsboro               77  53  70  52 /  20  70  80  60
Spaceport               79  56  73  55 /  40  60  60  50
Lake Roberts            73  47  69  47 /  10  50  70  60
Hurley                  76  53  70  52 /  10  50  70  50
Cliff                   80  51  77  49 /   0  40  60  50
Mule Creek              77  52  73  51 /   0  40  60  50
Faywood                 77  54  71  52 /  10  60  70  50
Animas                  82  57  80  57 /   0  30  40  40
Hachita                 80  56  78  55 /   0  40  50  40
Antelope Wells          81  56  80  56 /   0  30  40  30
Cloverdale              78  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.
  • National Weather Service
  • El Paso, TX Weather Forecast Office
  • 7955 Airport Rd
  • Santa Teresa, NM 88008
  • (575) 589-4088
  • Page Author: EPZ Webmaster
  • Web Master's E-mail: sr-epz.webmaster@noaa.gov
  • Page last modified: Jun 26th, 2017 23:53 UTC