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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242132
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
332 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An increasing southwest flow aloft will bring warmer temperatures
and stronger winds to the region Thursday and Friday. Winds of 25
to 35 mph will be possible in the afternoon with areas of patchy
blowing dust. Temperatures will warm up above seasonal averages
both days but will cool down by the weekend as cooler air moves
into the area. Memorial Day and the first part of next week will
have at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as
moisture moves into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A semi-active weather period is possible for southern New Mexico
and far west Texas over the next several days. First up will be an
increase in winds across the area. The high pressure ridge that
has been in place the past couple of days will erode and shift to
the east, allowing an enhanced southwest flow aloft to move over
the region in response to a deepening low over the western part of
the country. This pattern will allow a surface low to deepen east
of the area to increase wind speeds. In addition stronger winds
aloft will mix down to the surface with afternoon heating.

These factors will result in west to southwest wind speeds
between 25 and 35 mph across much of the forecast area Thursday
and again on Friday afternoon. There may also be areas of patchy
blowing dust in the lowland deserts along the border and along the
Interstate-10 corridor of southern New Mexico. A wind advisory
will be in effect from noon until 9 pm Thursday. The southwest
flow is expected to also warm temperatures a few degrees above
normal with lower to middle 90s expected across the lowland
deserts both Thursday and Friday.

Winds will be lower on Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes
and winds become more westerly to northwesterly. Temperatures will
also be a few degrees cooler and closer to normal values by
Saturday afternoon. A cold front will push into the area from the
east by early Sunday morning that will provide a few degrees of
cooling as well as shifting winds back around to the east. Winds
will be locally gusty along the west slopes Sunday through early
Monday.

An overall weather change will take place by Monday with the
advection of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico being transported
into the local area behind the front. Associated with this will
some dynamic forcing coming from a negatively tilted trough to the
west that should develop showers and thunderstorms across the
region by Monday afternoon. Weather models project this pattern to
be fairly persistent with a closed low remaining to the west and a
steady south to southeast low level flow continually replenishing
moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico. There will be at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. Winds will be main concern with west
winds 10-20G30KTS early this evening decreasing to AOB 5-15KTS by
06Z. Winds will be on the increase by 15Z and in the afternoon be
sustained around 20-30KTS with gusts to 40 KTS.  Some areas of
blowing dust could reduce visibilities to 1-3SM, especially along
and south of I-10 in NM and all of far west TX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather days ahead as west to southwest winds increase
to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will also be warming into the 90s for the lowlands with
relative humidities in the single digits.  Winds will start to
decrease on Saturday but still create near critical conditions,
especially over southern zones.  Winds will be shifting around to
the south to southeast on Sunday and remain that way into the first
half of next week.  These southeast winds will draw up some moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico and bring higher humidities and a daily
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures early next week
will also be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler but vent rates will be
closer to good than very good and excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 69  97  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           64  94  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              61  94  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              61  93  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              50  70  48  66 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   61  92  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             54  84  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  59  92  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               59  93  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      66  96  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               62  97  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            66  98  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              63  91  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  66  97  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            61  95  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          63  93  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           58  94  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   58  95  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                62  94  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               64  94  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 54  81  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               53  80  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                53  79  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 52  83  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               58  89  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               58  93  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            47  83  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  53  86  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   53  89  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              55  86  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 56  87  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  59  92  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 58  92  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          59  91  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              56  87  55  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ402>417.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04/26 Lundeen/Grzywacz


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