Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 251202
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
546 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

One of a series of disturbances will move in today with the other
one moving in on Tuesday bringing additional rain showers to some
low areas and snow showers to the mountains. The winds will be
breezy to windy today then breezy on Tuesday. More settled weather
will return to the Borderland from the middle through the end of
the week. The temperatures will be below the normal through
Wednesday then above the normal Thursday through the first half of
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Currently, the winds have subsided a bit; however, the winds are
are off and on breezy at the El Paso, Las Cruces and Deming. The
skies are mostly cloudy with cooler surface air temperatures
compare to what they were for the same time yesterday morning.
There are a few light showers mainly across Chihuahua Mexico with
one or two spotty showers on our side of the International Border.
For today, a short wave will move across Northern Mexico and
Southern New Mexico. This disturbance will bring additional rain
showers to some lowland areas and snow showers to the mountains.
The latest CAMs do suggest that much of the precipitation will be
out side mainly south of the Borderland. Any showers that will be
present both in the mountains and the lowlands will be generally
light to at times moderate. The winds will also pick up as the
pressure gradient will be closely pack together. The winds will be
the strongest across the east slopes due to a term called
downsloping winds. The winds will not be as strong as they were
yesterday; however, they will become windy at times especially
during the afternoon hours. With breezy to windy conditions in
place, there will be some areas mainly east of the Rio Grande
near the International Border that could see patchy blowing dust.
The flow will be from the west and with lower heights aloft, the
high temperatures in the afternoon will be below the normal. For
tonight, conditions will continue to remain unsettled as another
disturbance begins to move in light. The best chance and the best
area for precipitation will be in the the mountains in the form
of snow showers. The strong winds during the day will become
light to breezy during the overnight hours. With generally light
winds and the flow mainly from the west, the low temperatures on
Tuesday morning will be below the average.

For the rest of the period, conditions will continue to be active
during the day on Tuesday through at least until before midnight
Tuesday. Another rotating disturbance will move down from the
northwest bringing another round of rain showers to some lowland
areas and snow showers to the mountains. As of now, the best area
to receive any precipitation would the areas along the
Continental Divide and the Gila/Black Range and Sacramento
Mountains. The winds on Tuesday do not appear to be as strong as
they will be during the day today. However breezy winds are
expected on Tuesday as we would have some gradient; however, the
gradient will not be as closely packed as they would be today. The
shortwave will move out overnight Tuesday as the longwave trough
moves across the eastern United States. High pressure will build
in and amplify across the Southwest at least until Thursday. The
winds will be light and the temperatures warming to above the
the average. This ridge will gradually break down and shift to
our east as a trough across the Pacific West digs south across
California toward the end of the week and into the weekend. The
winds will become breezy to windy by the then, especially on
Sunday as a strong upper level jet begins to move across our
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW080-OVC250. The winds will be breezy to
windy (15-30 kts) with gusts up to 38 kts across all of the
terminals. The winds will be generally from the west through 06Z
Tuesday. With windy conditions, there may be BLDU especially at
KELP after 16Z until 01Z Tuesday. However, this was not mentioned
in the TAF as forecast confidence is low. Should this occur, VSBY
will be reduced to 1-3SM. Otherwise, there will be no reduction in
the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Moisture will be in place today as a disturbance will be in
the vicinity of our area. As a result of this, there will be a
chance for rain showers in some lowland areas and snow showers in
the mountains. The 20ft winds will be breezy to windy and the
temperatures below the normal. Tonight recovery will be good to
excellent. For Tuesday, moisture will decrease in the lowlands and
increase in the mountains. Another disturbance will bring additional
rain showers to the lowlands mainly far west of the Rio Grande and
snow showers to the mountains. The 20ft winds will be light to
breezy while the temperatures continue to be below the average.
Tuesday overnight recovery will be somewhat similar to that of
tonight`s recovery. For the rest of the period, conditions will
become settled. Moisture will decrease significantly each
consecutive day through the end of the week with the winds generally
light except on Friday and the temperatures above the normal. With
that said, there will be no fire weather concerns at lest through
Thursday with conditions becoming near critical on Friday.

For today, the min RHs will be between 20 and 35% in the lowlands
and between 40 and 60% in the mountains. For Tuesday, the min RHs
will decrease by around 5% in the lowlands and increase 10-15% in
the mountains. The ventilation rates will be excellent today then
very good to excellent on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  43  62  43 /  10   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca            55  36  57  36 /  10   0  10  10
Las Cruces               60  39  61  38 /   0   0  10   0
Alamogordo               58  34  58  32 /  20  20  10  10
Cloudcroft               33  20  33  20 /  30  30  30  20
Truth or Consequences    58  36  57  37 /  10  10  10   0
Silver City              46  30  46  29 /  20  30  30   0
Deming                   57  35  58  34 /   0   0  20   0
Lordsburg                55  33  56  32 /  20  10  40  10
West El Paso Metro       59  40  61  40 /  10   0  10  10
Dell City                61  37  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  38  62  38 /  10   0  10  10
Loma Linda               53  35  53  34 /  10   0  10  10
Fabens                   60  40  62  40 /  10   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             58  37  59  38 /  10   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           59  42  60  40 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            58  35  58  32 /  10  10  10  10
Hatch                    60  37  60  33 /  10   0  10   0
Columbus                 58  38  58  38 /  10   0  10  10
Orogrande                58  36  58  33 /  10  10  10   0
Mayhill                  47  27  47  27 /  20  30  20  10
Mescalero                45  25  45  25 /  20  30  30  20
Timberon                 45  23  45  23 /  20  30  10   0
Winston                  50  29  48  29 /  20  10  30  10
Hillsboro                55  33  54  31 /  10  20  20   0
Spaceport                58  31  57  32 /  10  10  10  10
Lake Roberts             46  25  46  23 /  30  40  60  10
Hurley                   50  30  51  29 /  10  20  20   0
Cliff                    54  32  53  30 /  20  40  40   0
Mule Creek               49  31  48  29 /  30  30  50  10
Faywood                  50  31  51  30 /  10  10  20   0
Animas                   55  34  57  32 /  10   0  30  10
Hachita                  55  35  57  33 /  10   0  20  10
Antelope Wells           53  33  56  32 /  20  10  30  10
Cloverdale               47  33  50  33 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira


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  • Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC