Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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480
FXUS64 KEWX 220009
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
609 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION.../00Z_TAFS/
The last round of showers through this evening is pushing through
AUS right now, with a thunderstorm producing a few strikes possible
where we have included VCTS in the TAF through 1Z. Otherwise, the
main aviation issues tonight will be MVFR ceilings lowering to IFR
around 7-9Z with patchy fog at the I-35 sites as northerly winds
currently gusting to 20-25 knots will subside over the next few
hours. Additional shower activity is expected after 9Z primarily
over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, but scattered showers
should affect the I-35 TAF sites where we have VCSH from about
9-16Z. As shower activity decreases late tomorrow morning afternoon,
ceilings may briefly lift to MVFR. However, strong moisture and warm
air advection should allow advection fog to develop late tomorrow
evening at the I-35 sites with LIFR ceilings and visibilities. DRT
should have MVFR ceilings or above through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed a deep trough over the western
half of the country with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the
surface, a cold front stretched from Victoria to Cotulla to Guerrero,
Mexico. Behind the front winds were from the north and temperatures
were mostly in the 30s and 40s. A line of showers and thunderstorms
from Burnet to Pleasanton is moving toward the east at this time.
This line will continue across the eastern half of the CWA this
afternoon. The upper pattern will change very little during this
period and the cold front will make slow progress to the south.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this period. Cold air
will continue to filter in this evening and temperatures will fall
to freezing across our northern area after about 4 AM. With
precipitation chances continuing and the cold air confined to the
shallow boundary layer, there will be a chance for light freezing
rain or a mix with rain. There will only be a few hours with
temperatures below freezing and only low chances for any
precipitation. Only minimal impacts are expected with possible minor
ice accumulation on elevated surfaces. There could be some patches of
ice on bridges and overpasses from Burnet to Kerrville. Warming will
begin tomorrow and continue tomorrow night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The southwesterly flow between 700 and 500 mb will continue through
most of the long term period. This will keep deep moisture in place
across much of the area. This will keep rain chances in the forecast
through the end of the week. Saturday another cold front, this one
from the Pacific, will enhance rain chances for the weekend. No
change in the upper pattern will mean continuing low chances for
precipitation into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              37  50  45  69  61 /  40  70  70  60  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  38  51  45  70  62 /  40  70  70  50  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     39  53  47  70  62 /  40  60  60  50  40
Burnet Muni Airport            33  47  42  64  57 /  30  70  60  70  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           40  59  50  69  57 /  30  30  30  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        35  48  43  66  60 /  40  70  70  70  40
Hondo Muni Airport             40  56  50  70  61 /  40  50  60  60  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        38  53  46  71  62 /  50  70  60  50  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   42  57  52  75  65 /  60  50  60  40  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       40  54  48  70  62 /  40  60  60  50  40
Stinson Muni Airport           42  56  49  72  63 /  40  60  60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...LH
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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