Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 281759 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1259 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SCT030 to BKN/OVC035-040 ceilings are ongoing as of 1750Z after
improving from earlier IFR and MVFR readings. VFR is expected to
continue through the afternoon and evening hours with additional mix
out. SHRA will develop along the TX coast and attempt to move inland
to the coastal plains but is not expected to reach KAUS/KSAT/KSSF.
MVFR ceilings are expected to return by 07-09Z for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
with the possibility of higher-end IFR conditions occurring.
However, slightly drier air will infiltrate in from the north and
west helping reduce the chance of LIFR or VLIFR that occurred this
morning (6/28). Despite the dry air aloft, coastal plains and
escarpment locations could again experience some patchy fog. This
trend will need to be monitored and lower visibilities may need to be
included in the next TAF cycle for KAUS. KDRT should remain VFR
through the period but low clouds could lurk close by 12-16Z Thursday
and have included a SCT020 as a precaution.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

The troughing pattern over Central and East TX will shift SEwd today
as a mid-level ridge axis knifes east into North Central TX. Broad
Cyclonic flow at 700 mbs will continue over the Coastal Prairies
today and Thursday which will help hold pwat values over 1.5 inches
and support the capability of air-mass type showers and thunderstorms
in the short term. The rain chances should retreat slightly eastward
versus today as the 700 mb shear axis weakens and allows more mid-
level drying over the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should still be
moderated slightly with most grounds containing some moisture from
the past rains. A warming trend should accelerate over most areas
for Thursday after a full day of good mixing without precip is
expected. A trough clipping across the Northern/Central Plains should
increase southerly winds and raise min temps and heat index values
for Thursday, but think the values will remain shy of heat advisory
levels.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
No rain is forecasts for the extended forecast, save for a slight
chance of rain for far east counties Friday. The troughing pattern
moving through the plains Friday is expected to develop a frontal
zone over OK and a thunderstorm complex over the Red River Valley,
leading to further increases in onshore winds and humidity. Thus
there is a chance we`ll see near Heat Advisory conditions for Friday.
A fairly flat ridge axis pattern over Central TX should lead to a
fair wx and seasonal forecast for the weekend into Independence Day.
Deterministic model solutions do not show a significant weakening in
the suppressed ridging pattern over Central TX, so the chances that
storms propagate Swd into our forecast Saturday is low.

Over the weekend, the mid-upper level ridging to the west amplifies
northward in the wake of the shallow Central US trough which should
lower surface winds and perhaps enhance dry air mixing and lower heat
indices. Eastern counties should still expect to see some triple
digit heat index values for Saturday, but continued daytime mixing
and weakened onshore winds should help send the daily heat index
trend gradually downward Sunday into Independence Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  94  77  95  77 /  -   10  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  94  77  95  77 /  -   10  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  94  76  95  76 /  -   10  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  93  75  93  74 /   0  -   -   10  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           74 100  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  93  76  94  76 /  -   10  -   10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             72  97  76  98  76 /   0  10  -   10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  77  94  77 /  -   10  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  78  93  78 /  10  30  10  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  94  77  96  77 /  -   10  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           74  95  77  96  77 /  -   10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams


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