Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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941
FXUS64 KEWX 271743
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PERIOD...
Another day of iso SHRA/TSRA expected, mainly for the KSAT/KSSF
terminals. To a lesser extent, SHRA may be nearby the KAUS/KDRT
terminals this afternoon as well. There is higher confidence of an
impact to the San Antonio terminals versus KAUS/KDRT thus have
included a TEMPO group both terminals. MVFR is expected to re-develop
shortly after SHRA cessation after 03Z. Models are indicating IFR
again but skeptical of that outcome due to unfavorable low level
winds and low CIG bias lately in model guidance. Thus opted for MVFR
in the TAFs for now.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough from the Great Lakes
to east Texas with west to west-northwesterly flow over us. At the
surface, there was a stationary front over east Texas with an ill
defined pressure field over our CWA with winds light and variable.
Ongoing convection along several mesoscale boundaries was
dissipating. A shortwave trough will move through the pattern today
bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. PW is forecast
to be 1.5-2.0 inches so locally heavy rain is possible with
convection this afternoon and evening. The subtropical ridge will
begin to build back over Texas from the west. This will push rain
chance to the east for Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The subtropical ridge will continue to slowly build to the east
keeping most of our CWA dry Wednesday night through Friday. Slight to
low end chance POPs will be confined to the area southeast of I-35.
The push of the upper level ridge will lower PW values, so heavy rain
will be less likely. By Firday night the ridge will be dominant and
no rain chances will remain. The forecast will be for dry weather
through the end of the period. Temperatures will climb back to above
normal by Friday and then level off through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  92  74  94  77 /  30  20  10  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  91  74  93  77 /  40  20  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  90  73  94  76 /  50  20  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            70  90  72  92  74 /  30  10  10  10  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  95  74  98  77 /  40  -   -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  90  73  93  76 /  30  10  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  92  72  96  75 /  50  10  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  91  73  93  76 /  40  20  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  90  75  92  77 /  50  30  20  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  92  74  94  77 /  50  20  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           73  91  74  95  77 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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