Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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581
FXUS64 KEWX 122104
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
304 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Dry seasonal weather will prevail through the short term forecast.
Winds will diminish quickly this evening leading to a cool Wednesday
morning. Lows in the low to mid 30s are expected, with some isolated
pockets of upper 20s in drainage areas of the Hill Country. Highs
Wednesday will rebound in to the upper 60s under high cirrus
streaming into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
A digging upper level trough through the Plains and into West Texas
and Mexico will send another cold front through the region on
Thursday. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area Thursday
and Friday.

Models are in agreement that an upper level low will cut off near
Sonora and Baja Mexico on Friday as the main trough axis pulls away
toward the Northeast U.S. The low is forecast to open and eject
northeast across South Texas Saturday into Saturday night. Low level
moisture return to this region appears to get cut off as a coastal
low/trough develop off the Mid Texas Coast. Nevertheless, height
falls ahead of the opening mid and upper low and strong dynamical
forcing as a 130-140 kt jet streak moves overhead, combined with a
plume of mid level moisture, should generate rain and elevated
thunder chances sometime Saturday or Saturday night. The operational
run of the 12Z GFS is slightly faster than the 12Z GFS at this time.
We have raised PoPs conservatively for Saturday and Saturday night,
and future adjustments upward in the PoPs may be required if trends
hold.

The system should quickly move northeast of the area early Sunday
with clearing and seasonal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              63  37  67  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  34  66  41  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  36  65  42  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            60  34  66  39  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  38  64  42  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  35  66  41  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  34  66  41  67 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  35  66  42  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  35  65  42  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  37  66  44  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           66  37  65  44  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...LH
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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