Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 170934
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
334 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Well above normal warm temps are expected today with SSW winds
expected in the afternoon. Patchy fog and low clouds will burn off
more quickly this morning as the SSW develops in the boundary layer
by late morning. Surface winds back with time in the late afternoon
and evening, which should enable one more night of low cloudiness
forming over at least the eastern two-thirds of our forecast area.

Deterministic model trends have delayed frontal timing an hour or two
over the past day which translates to compromised cold air advection
over our southern counties in the afternoon. A westerly wind
component above the boundary layer will leave the moist layer
shallow, and will continue keeping out rain chances over all but the
far eastern counties.

Low end elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the
Southern Edwards Plateau, with near or above normal fuel moisture
assessments keeping this dry front from being considered a
significant hazard. Accelerated cold air advection should end the
minor concerns by early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
North winds of 5 to 15 mph will hold in the early morning hours
Sunday with the coldest air not having fully settled in. High temps
should be several degrees below normals for Sunday and mins for
Monday morning should be the coldest of the week. Patches of mid
level cloudiness are expected to drift across TX during this period,
else we might be seeing some more light freezing temps over the Hill
Country.

A week troughing feature associated with the aforementioned early
Monday clouds continues to carve deeper into Tuesday as shortwave
retrogression digs the trough SW into much of TX. Areas east of I-35
could see some light showers Tuesday, and the dynamic lift could
produce some showers farther west into the Hill Country Tuesday
night, despite limited moisture availability. This pattern remains in
below average confidence as models continue to show a considerable
spread on the shape and strength of the troughing pattern and the
associated shortwaves moving through it. The stabilizing pattern that
follows Wednesday has better model agreement, suggesting seasonal
and dry weather for the beginning of the extended holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              84  68  77  46  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  84  67  77  44  63 /  -   10  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  66  78  45  64 /  10  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            82  64  73  42  61 /  -    0  -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           84  59  79  45  64 /  -    0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  66  75  43  62 /  10  -   -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  63  81  42  66 /  10  -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  67  77  44  64 /  10  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  69  78  45  64 /  10  -   10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  67  79  45  64 /  10  10  -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           86  67  81  45  65 /  -   10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks



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