Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
000
FXUS64 KEWX 152010
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
310 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Showers and thunderstorms have developed near a cold front that is
stretched across South Central Texas. There is sufficient CAPE and
vertical wind shear to generate strong to severe storms. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 PM for most of our CWA.
Storms will continue through the evening with the front stalling in
the region.
An upper level low over the southwestern US will remain in place
through the short term period. The flow will be southwesterly and
within this flow there will be a number of shortwave troughs. This
will mean continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
and Saturday night. CAPE will increase to near 2000 j/kg across the
southern part of the CWA. The old front will be stalled near there
and there will be another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the most likely threats. In
addition, PW values will increase to 1.25" to 1.5" and locally
heavy rain will be possible at times. Rainfall totals will be one to
two inches over the southern Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal
Plains. There will be isolated higher amounts. This much rain may
produce flash flooding in some locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
On Sunday for the beginning of the long-term period of the forecast,
rain chances will continue for continued light showers and
thunderstorms as the upper low remains situated to our west. Rain
amounts on Sunday will primarily be less than a third of an inch for
most locations. The upper low is expected to retreat a bit to the
west by Sunday evening and this should keep additional rain chances
Sunday night into Monday confined to the Rio Grande Plains. Models
struggle with the eventual evolution of the upper low with the GFS
eventually opening it up and bringing it back east over South-
Central Texas by Wednesday bringing another chance of rain to the
region. The ECMWF is weaker, later, and more north with the track.
The NBM keeps low PoPs in the forecast for both Wednesday and
Thursday and this seems reasonable for now.
Temperatures during the beginning of the long-term period of the
forecast will continue to be cooler than normal with upper 50s and
60s likely for highs on Tuesday. Once the upper low moves in at some
point during the middle to latter part of the week, drier and warmer
air should move into the region behind an associated Pacific front
for the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Austin and San Antonio areas remain under MVFR ceilings. It looks
like Austin will remain MVFR, but San Antonio will lift to VFR later
this afternoon. Chances for convection have decreased in Austin as a
cold front moves south of the area. There is still a chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the San Antonio area this afternoon and
evening. Ceilings will drop overnight eventually reaching IFR. Rain
chances will increase Saturday morning with a chance for convection
in Austin and San Antonio.
DRT is VFR and will remain that way through the afternoon and
evening. There will be a chance for convection this afternoon and
evening. The ceiling will drop to MVFR overnight and then IFR
Saturday morning. There will be rain chances Saturday morning after
sunrise.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 63 74 61 71 / 20 80 70 50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 73 61 71 / 20 80 70 60
New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 77 61 72 / 30 70 70 60
Burnet Muni Airport 60 69 58 67 / 20 80 60 50
Del Rio Intl Airport 64 77 62 74 / 60 70 70 60
Georgetown Muni Airport 62 71 60 68 / 20 80 70 50
Hondo Muni Airport 62 74 59 72 / 30 70 70 60
San Marcos Muni Airport 62 74 60 71 / 30 80 70 60
La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 74 63 71 / 30 80 70 60
San Antonio Intl Airport 63 75 61 71 / 30 70 70 60
Stinson Muni Airport 64 76 63 73 / 30 70 70 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...05
Long-Term...29
Aviation...05