Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 271942
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are once again
developing across South Central Texas. The majority of activity is
across the Coastal Plains where the moisture content is highest. PW
values currently range from near 1.5 inches across the west to 2+" in
the Coastal Plains. With these values, and overall slow-storm motions
should see the threat for locally heavy rainfall continue into the
early evening hours before the loss of daytime heating begins to
dwindle shower and storm activity. These showers and storms are
developing within a shear axis at 500 mb over the region which
allows for lift associated with heating to be enough to lift parcels
to the LFC. In addition, a coastal trough can be seen on 850/700 mb
surfaces off the coast of South Texas. This is ensuring winds in the
lower levels of the atmosphere are out of the ESE which brings in a
good fetch of gulf moisture which is leading to those higher PW
values.

Convection should mostly be over after 10 PM with some lingering
showers possible through the night, especially in the Coastal Plains
and I-35 corridor. Lows tonight will bottom out in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Things will be changing for tomorrow as the previously
mentioned coastal trough slides to the northeast. This placement will
put our 850/700 mb winds more out of the ENE which effectively shuts
off our access to the richer gulf moisture. PW values are expected
to drop by about 0.4 inches tomorrow. In addition, the 500 mb shear
axis will also be more to our southeast and these two factors should
favor shower and storm activity being more confined to the coast.
PoPs will be lower than previous days with 20s along the I-35
corridor and 30s/40s in the Coastal Plains. With the drier air, high
temperatures are expected to be about 5 degrees warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Low chances for rain will continue Thursday and Friday, mainly east
of I-35 where PW values are expected to be highest. Moisture is
expected to drop off even further for the remainder of the forecast
and will not include any mention of PoPs beyond Friday. Can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower in the afternoons, but overall
probabilities are too low to mention at this time. Highs will warm
each day with high temperatures Friday and this weekend in the middle
to upper 90s for much of the area. Lows will also be warmer, in the
middle to upper 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  92  74  95  77 /  30  20  10  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  92  73  94  77 /  40  20  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  91  73  94  76 /  50  20  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            70  90  72  93  75 /  30  10  10  10  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  96  74 100  77 /  40  -   -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  91  73  94  76 /  30  10  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  93  72  98  76 /  50  20  -   10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  92  73  94  77 /  40  20  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  91  74  93  78 /  50  30  10  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  93  74  95  77 /  50  20  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           72  93  74  96  77 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...YB


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