Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 082047
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
According to visible satellite, snowpack spanning from Medina and
Bandera counties northwest to Lee county has almost entirely
diminished. West-northwest winds have efficiently brought in much
drier dewpoints and warmer air into the region this afternoon. An
enhanced pressure gradient over the western CWA has developed this
afternoon in response to a surface trough moving through the area.
This will relax later this evening as the trough shifts to the
Arklatex and bring winds down to below 5 kts generally across the
CWA. This should set up an efficient radiational cooling set up for
the overnight period resulting in lows in the morning to reach
freezing or below again for many areas. Coldest locations in the Hill
Country may even fall into the upper 20s.

NOTE: Most areas across the CWA reached their first freeze this
morning and as a result, no more freeze warnings will be issued for
the rest of the winter season.

As the current upper trough shifts eastward, the region will be
dominated by northwest flow and building H5 heights. Winds will shift
to a more northerly component but remain light. Would have raised
highs a bit higher if not for the northerly wind component tempering
the temp potential, thus have highs reaching the low to mid 60s as a
result.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
A dry and rather benign forecast is expected through Friday with no
PoPs in any period. Another cold front is expected Tuesday morning
which will halt our warming trend through mid week. With a very dry
air mass in place as it translates through the state, the only
impacts the front is expected to have to the forecast is a shift of
winds to the north and dropping temperatures by about 5-7 degrees.

Beyond day 7, models are indicating a deep diving closed low over the
Rockies down into Mexico. There is a fair amount of agreement in the
long range for this solution which would eventually phase with
another low from the Pacific Northwest and bring the state back into
a southwest flow regime and potentially the next best shot at PoPs.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              34  63  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  29  63  32  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     31  64  33  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            33  61  33  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           33  64  34  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        31  62  33  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             30  65  31  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        31  63  32  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   30  61  32  62  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       34  64  35  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           33  65  35  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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