Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 162329 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
629 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are in store for our TAF sites through the current
forecast period. Winds will decrease around sunset and should remain
northerly around 5kt for the I-35 sites, with more of a northwest
wind expected at DRT. North to northeast winds will continue tomorrow
along I-35, with winds becoming southeasterly around 15Z and DRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Lower to mid level ridging brings the coldest temperatures thus far
this fall tonight and Tuesday night. Light winds, clear skies, and a
dry airmass make for efficient radiational cooling with lows 10 to
15 degrees below normal for mid October. Expect some low lying spots
in the Hill Country to have lows in the upper mid 30s, though lower
to mid 40s will prevail. In spite of ample sunshine on Tuesday,
expect highs to be slightly below normal.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Lower and mid level ridges begin to drift off to the east Wednesday
allowing for southerly flow to return with temperatures warming to
near normal. Mid and upper level troughiness develops Thursday as
the ridges push off to east. Southerly flow strengthens with
increasing moisture leading to chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains Thursday pushing west across
the I-35 corridor into the eastern Hill Country Friday and Saturday.

All models bring a cold front across our area late Saturday night
into Sunday while there remains great uncertainty in the mid to upper
levels for Sunday into Monday. The 12Z model runs showed the mid to
upper level trough passing across our area on Sunday ending the rain
chances by evening. However, the models and their ensembles have been
inconsistent and lacked consensus on where it will close off either
on Sunday or Monday. The last few runs, including the 12Z ensembles,
show the low closes off as far east as the Southeastern States or as
far west as New Mexico/northern Mexico. For now, will favor the 12Z
runs with no rain chances Sunday night into Monday. Should the low be
further west as some models/ensembles show, then rain chances will
continue into Monday and possibly beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              50  78  50  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  46  77  47  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     47  77  48  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            46  76  48  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           50  77  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        46  77  48  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             46  79  48  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        47  77  48  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   46  78  47  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       50  78  51  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           50  79  51  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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