Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 250850
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
350 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Cold front extends across Central into Western Texas with another
surface boundary near the Coastal Plains to the Middle Rio Grande
Valley. A mid level shear axis was over southern Texas with a TUTT
low over the Western Gulf of Mexico. A tropical airmass with PWS of
1.5 inches Edwards Plateau to 2+ inches along and east of I-35 was
over our area. Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing to our
south along the surface boundary while have been developing along the
cold front. With heating, showers and thunderstorms will expand in
coverage across our area and produce new surface outflow boundaries.
Showers and thunderstorms will tend to wane later this evening with
loss of heating, though the new boundaries and weak mid level shear
axis will keep some activity going overnight. The mid level shear
axis shifts off to the west on Monday, replaced by a weak mid level
trough dropping southeast in the northwesterly flow aloft while the
TUTT low drifts northeast. This new trough along with the new surface
boundaries and heating will allow showers and thunderstorms to expand
in coverage on Monday. Tropical moisture remains on Monday. The main
threat will be locally heavy downpours that could cause some minor
flooding, especially over areas that received earlier heavy rains.
Could be some gusty winds with the stronger storms, but they should
remain below 30 mph. Below normal temperatures are expected due to
the clouds and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
No change is expected from Monday into Tuesday. Subtle changes take
place on Wednesday as the Subtropical Ridge weakly builds into our
area. Enough troughing or shear axis remains, however. The tropical
airmass shifts slightly to the east with lower PWS moving into the
Edwards and the 1.5 to 2 inch range shifting to the I-35 corridor to
Coastal Plains. Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue for
those more moist areas with most activity during the early morning to
evening hours. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible in
western Val Verde county coming off the higher terrain to their west.
A very slow warming trend develops Wednesday and continues through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  71  88  72  89 /  50  40  40  20  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  71  88  71  89 /  50  40  40  20  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     87  71  89  71  89 /  50  40  40  20  40
Burnet Muni Airport            84  69  85  70  87 /  40  40  50  30  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  73  91  73  91 /  20  30  30  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  70  87  71  88 /  50  40  40  20  40
Hondo Muni Airport             90  72  90  71  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  71  88  71  90 /  50  40  40  20  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  73  89  72  90 /  50  40  50  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  73  89  72  90 /  50  40  40  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport           89  73  89  73  90 /  50  40  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...04



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