Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 240516
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1216 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
VFR expected to prevail over next 25 hours. High clouds expected to
move into the KDRT terminal space by mid day today and winds will
pick up over 12kts during the afternoon, no other impacts expected.
I-35 terminals should be VFR throughout the TAF period, being
impacted by the high clouds later in the day. Some MVFR development
early Tuesday morning may be on the horizon but not enough confidence
at the current time to include in the TAF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Clear skies with temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s can be found
across south central Texas this afternoon. Northerly winds continue
this afternoon, with some gusts up to 20 mph mainly along and east
of the I-35 corridor. Skies will remain clear overnight and as winds
diminish around sunset, temperatures will begin to fall. Overnight
lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s are in store. Temperatures will begin
to warm on Monday as southerly flow in the low-levels returns. We
should manage to warm to near climatological normals on Monday with
highs generally in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Model data is showing a
weak, mid-level shortwave trough moving out of Mexico into south
central Texas late Monday. Any convection associated with this
feature should remain over the higher terrain of Mexico and we will
continue the dry forecast.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
A dry and warm pattern continues to be advertised by the medium range
models for the remainder of the work week. On Tuesday, the warmest
readings are expected along the Rio Grande where mid to upper 90s are
in store. Farther east, the return of low-level moisture will hinder
the warming trend. However, we still expect mid to upper 80s for the
I-35 corridor and eastward. On Wednesday, surface winds will trend
take on a more west to northwest component as a surface
trough/dryline moves eastward across south central Texas. Another
very warm day is in store as downslope flow aids the warming trend.
Temperatures will approach 100 along the Rio Grande, with mid 80s to
lower 90s elsewhere. We do expect a cold front to move through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This will help
drop temperatures a few degrees on Thursday, but above normal
readings are still in store. Above normal temperatures along with
increased humidity is in store Friday as gusty south winds return to
The next opportunity for rainfall will be during the upcoming
weekend. However, there have been some timing differences as the
medium range models have trended slower with the next upper trough
set to approach from the west. For now, we will keep rain chances low
(20-40%) and await additional model data before going any higher. It
is still too early to provide any specifics with regards to the
possibility of severe weather. Given the west/southwest flow in the
mid-levels, a stout mid-level capping inversion will need to be
overcome before storms can develop.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 80 62 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 10 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 80 61 88 71 89 / 0 0 - 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 80 59 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 79 60 88 68 86 / 0 0 0 10 -
Del Rio Intl Airport 85 62 95 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 79 62 88 70 87 / 0 0 0 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 83 59 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 80 60 88 70 90 / 0 0 - 10 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 80 61 86 71 88 / 0 0 0 10 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 81 62 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 -
Stinson Muni Airport 81 61 89 69 92 / 0 0 0 10 -