Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 242326 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z Update/
VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening. All convection
has moved out of the region or dissipated. May see convection
develop or begin to move into the area late tonight or towards Sunday
morning. Models and soundings continue to suggest that MVFR cigs
will develop between 08Z-11Z. VFR conditions will return in the 16Z-
18Z period. Will see scattered convection begin after 16z and
continue through sunset. For the current forecast have included VCSH
after 16Z since location and timing of convection is not certain at
this time. Winds will generally be easterly at 5-10 knots, but
variable and gusty in or near any convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated over the Coastal
Prairies through the early evening after a strong morning outflow
brought a portion of the cold front through the area. The Frontal
push is forecast to wash out tonight with return flow and tropical
moisture expected to interact with continued instability from a NW
flow pattern aloft. PoPs for tonight may be skewed to address chances
in the evening and the predawn hours, with many model solutions
showing minimal activity in the late night hours. Several solutions
indicate another round of instability and enhanced rain chances to
arrive from the NW toward daybreak. With the heat bubble deflated
from this morning, future storm chances should be mostly of a garden
variety, but cumulative rainfall totals may lead to a localized
flood threat over the isolated areas that saw 2 to 4 inch rain totals
today.

Rain chances should continue into daytime Sunday with the mid-level
ridging feature continuing to break down to the west. With a fully
developed NW flow pattern in place, rain chances will be somewhat
balanced between day and night going forward. Additional reinforcing
effects will be provided by a moisture fetch wrapping around the
northern edge of a TUTT low that has moved into the Wrn Gulf.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
While the TUTT low over the Gulf lifts and gets absorbed into Central
US Troughing Monday, the NW flow pattern aloft remains intact over
TX through Tuesday. Pwat values hold in the 1.6-2.0 inch range for
the most part during this period which should help support the
unstable NW Flow pattern with at least low chance PoPs through
Tuesday night. Mid level ridging is expected to build and force an
eastward retreat of rain chances Wednesday, but upper troughing over
the TX coast will continue to enable tropical and mostly daytime
convection over the Coastal Prairies Wednesday through Friday.
Moisture moderated temperatures can be expected through Tuesday with
a warming trend building in from the west Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  88  72  89  71 /  40  40  40  40  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  88  71  89  71 /  40  40  40  50  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  88  71  89  71 /  50  40  40  40  40
Burnet Muni Airport            70  86  70  86  70 /  40  40  40  40  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  92  73  92  73 /  30  30  40  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  86  70  87  70 /  40  40  40  40  40
Hondo Muni Airport             74  91  72  91  71 /  40  40  40  40  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  88  71  89  71 /  50  40  40  40  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  89  73  89  73 /  50  50  40  50  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  89  72  91  72 /  40  40  40  40  40
Stinson Muni Airport           75  90  73  91  73 /  40  40  40  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Williams
Public Service/Data Collection...30



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