Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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159
FXUS64 KEWX 191143 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
643 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

Widespread MVFR ceilings have developed as expected per the greater
weighted NAM output. KAUS/KSAT/KSSF will all be MVFR from 1130Z
through at least 14Z-15Z before a gradual mixout occurs through
16-17Z this morning. KDRT remains VFR as 1130Z but MVFR clouds
continue to progress westward. HRRR runs indicate this ceiling
continuing to spread west from 13-16Z and have included MVFR deck for
KDRT as well. All sites will become VFR late morning.

For this afternoon, a few SHRA will develop across the Texas coastal
plains but not reach TAF sites. Surface winds will be southeast near
10 knots. KDRT will be closer to 15 knots and occasionally gust to
20 knots this afternoon.

Overnight tonight into Friday morning, expect even lower ceilings as
more moisture shifts into the region. IFR ceilings are expected at
all sites 08Z through 15Z Friday with the possibility of LIFR pockets.
Some light DZ/BR could also occur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a low amplitude ridge over
Texas with a trough to the west. At the surface, high pressure was
centered to the northeast, but the pressure gradient was loose so
winds were generally light from the southeast to east across our CWA.
Dewpoint temperatures have increased 5-10 degrees in the last 24
hours. The upper level trough to our west will rotate across Texas
during this period. With the increased moisture over our CWA this
upper feature will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon through Friday. Any showers today will be confined to
the Coastal Plains. Convection will spread to the north and west
tonight and tomorrow. High temperatures will be near to a few
degrees above normal. Low temperatures Friday morning will be 5-10
degrees warmer than today.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
A deep upper level trough will keep the upper flow over Texas from
the southwest Friday night and Saturday. This along with continued
moist flow in the low levels will keep a chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern half of the area in the forecast for
Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday a cold front will move through
our CWA bringing a widespread chance for rain. Behind the front
breezy northerly winds will bring cooler and drier air. The upper
flow will become northwesterly Monday and stay that way through the
end of the period. This will mean a dry forecast for the first half
of next week. Surface winds will be from the north and west which
will keep temperatures from increasing much Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  67  81  70  85 /  -   20  40  20  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  65  82  70  85 /  -   20  40  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  66  82  69  86 /  -   20  30  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            80  65  79  67  83 /   0  20  30  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  68  82  67  86 /   0  20  20  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  65  80  69  84 /   0  20  40  20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             83  67  84  69  88 /   0  20  20  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  66  82  70  85 /  10  20  40  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  67  82  70  85 /  10  20  50  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  68  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           83  68  84  70  88 /  -   20  30  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...05



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