Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 220607
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
107 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail at the TAF sites overnight through
Thursday night. Tropical Storm Cindy about 50 miles southeast of KBPT
to make landfall along the Texas and Louisiana border by morning will
send BKN-OVC cirrus and some low end VFR FEW-BKN stratocu to KAUS,
KSAT, KSSF overnight into Thursday. Have maintained low end VFR CIGs
at KAUS for 10Z-17Z, though may be more TEMPO than prevailing. Any
SHRA/TSRA will be well east of the TAF sites near KGYB and K3T5.
Clouds will tend to decrease as the remnants of Cindy move north
along the border region during the day into Thursday night. Out at
KDRT, cirrus blowoff will move south over the site with some daytime
cumulus. For most areas, northerly winds of 5 to 10 KTs will slowly
turn to northwesterly and westerly on Thursday and finally southerly
Thursday night in response to the movement of Cindy. Out west, east
to southeast winds of 5 to 10 KTs will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation discussion...

AVIATION...

San Antonio and Austin TAF sites...

Currently VFR at all I-35 TAF sites with a few upper level clouds.
Gusty northerly winds are expected to continue through the evening
hours before dissipating early Thursday morning. Upper level clouds
will likely become greater in coverage this evening and overnight due
to Tropical Storm Cindy. However, no aviation impacts are expected
from Cindy as any rainfall associated with her should remain east of
I-35. Some numerical guidance suggest CIGs at AUS lowering to MVFR
for a few hours Thursday morning but don`t have high confidence in
that occurring, so I have kept it at VFR. All three I-35 TAF sites
are expected to remain VFR for the entire forecast period with
northerly winds.

Del Rio...

VFR at DRT presently with light and variable winds. Winds will become
out of the east this evening and then out of the southeast by
Thursday morning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the
entire forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Tropical Storm Cindy will look to have minimal influence on our
short-term weather with only scattered showers and a few storms over
our eastern counties. The most notable impact will be for the N/NE
winds to bring lower dew points and thus a slightly cooler morning
Thursday as was the case for this morning. Thursday, areas along and
east of Hwy 77 might see a brief and beneficial downpour with a few
degrees knocked off the daytime high trend from added clouds. The NHC
projections for the storm to curve NE late Thursday leaves little
hope for much of the moisture to make alter the hot spell we are
having over South Central TX, but some of the moisture will probably
provide an indirect enhancement to the pattern in the extended. After
south winds return Thursday, dew points and heat indices will also
creep higher by a few degrees Thursday versus today.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
By Friday, a troughing feature that will help accelerate the
weakening effects of Cindy NEwd and far away from the region will
also begin to cut into the Upper ridge with a NW flow pattern aloft
and a weak frontal zone setting up near the Red River valley. This
initially will not provide relief from the hot pattern, and another
rise in temperatures and dew points could lead to near heat advisory
conditions for parts of South Central TX Friday afternoon.

The consensus of deterministic solutions show a potential for a weak
complex to form over N/NW TX Friday and move south into South
Central TX late by early Saturday morning. The 12Z ECM came in the
less aggressive with this pattern than the other 12Z runs, so will
continue to curb the blended guidances by 10-20 percent until all
solutions show the mid level ridge over Central TX sufficiently
chiseled away. The consensus solutions continue a moist and
relatively cooler period that continue over the weekend into late
Tuesday with diverging solutions by the middle of next week. Given
the area has been endured a minor period of drought for much of June,
will continue to undercut pops and run slightly warmer than
consensus max temps through the extended period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  77  92  73 /   0  -   20  40  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  76  91  73 /   0  -   20  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  99  76  91  73 /   0   0  10  40  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  97  74  89  71 /   0  -   20  40  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 105  79  96  75 /   0   0  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  75  90  72 /   0  -   20  40  30
Hondo Muni Airport             75 103  77  95  73 /   0   0  10  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  99  76  92  73 /   0   0  20  40  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  97  77  90  74 /  -   20  20  40  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  78  93  74 /   0   0  10  40  20
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  78  93  75 /   0   0  10  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...17


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