Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 141642 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Recent radar and satellite trends show a decreasing trend in
convection across the Hill Country. Several hi-res models suggest
this trend will continue for the late morning and afternoon hours.
With this in mind, we have removed the mention of showers and storms
across the Hill Country. Elsewhere, some convection continues across
the Rio Grande plains north of Del Rio. We will continue to mention
additional showers and thunderstorms today given ongoing activity and
the hi-res models suggesting additional convection remains possible
this afternoon. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the dew
points and winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
Mvfr cigs are forming rapidly on the west side of San Antonio and
expanding in all directions. Low cigs appear imminent for SAT/SSF,
but look less certain for the AUS area, in part due to a fair amount
of mid to high level clouds. A few morning showers are possible to
the distant north of AUS and DRT this morning. Early evening winds
appear to be trending stronger for today so will add a period for
the I-35 sites. The stronger onshore flow could lead to more hours of
low clouds late in the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
A mid level impulse is over the Southern Plains bringing showers and
thunderstorms to Northern and Central Texas with showers extending
back into northern Mexico. Will introduce slight chance POPs for the
western Edwards Plateau, Hill Country into Central Texas for this
morning. A mid to upper level trough is over the Pacific Northwest
with mid to upper level ridges along the United States/Mexico border
and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The Plains impulse continues to
track to the east as the trough deepens across the Western States
shifting the western ridge south into Mexico. A plume of moisture
from Mexico into West Central Texas maintains the slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across Val Verde County through Tuesday.
Cannot rule out very isolated showers across the Edwards Plateau to
Central Texas, however POPs are too low to mention. Expect dewpoints
to mix lower during the day to avoid a Heat Advisory. However,
elevated heat index values could still reach advisory criteria for
an hour or so this afternoon. Mixing will be slightly less efficient
Tuesday as moisture increases a little making a Heat Advisory
possible.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
A shortwave trough lifts across the Northern/Central Plains Tuesday
Night into Wednesday with the plume of moisture maintaining slight
chances of showers and thunderstorms across Val Verde into western
Edwards County. As in the short term, isolated showers are possible
across the Hill Country into Central Texas, though POPs are too low
to mention. Further east, near the Coastal Plains, the seabreeze
becomes a little more energetic with slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms. For the remainder of the week into next weekend, a
series of mid and upper level troughs move across the northern and
central tier of states while the mid and upper level ridge rebuilds
over our area. Subsidence and capping keep rain out of the forecast
Thursday through Sunday, except slight chances western Val Verde
County on Thursday. Elevated heat index values may require a Heat
Advisory for areas along and east of I-35 on Wednesday and near the
Coastal Plains going into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  77 100  78 100 /  -    0   0  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  76  99  77  99 /  -    0   0  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  75 100  77  99 /   0   0   0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            97  74  96  75  95 /  10  -    0  -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  79 100  80  99 /  -   -   -   20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  76  99  77  97 /  10   0   0  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport            101  75 101  76 100 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  76  99  77  98 /   0   0  -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional  100  77  98  78  97 /   0  -   10  -   20
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport          102  77 101  78 100 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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