Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 281201 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
701 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Please see the 12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy fog and low stratus near the AUS terminal has brought
temporary LIFR conditions this morning. We will include a TEMPO group
through 13Z based on recent observations. Elsewhere, upper end IFR or
low end MVFR conditions are expected for SAT/SSF for most of the
morning hours. All sites along I-35 should then improve back to MVFR
by Noon. VFR conditions are then expected through the afternoon and
evening hours, with MVFR cigs likely to return early Thursday
morning. Out west at DRT, clouds have been slower to develop near
the terminal. However, we could still see some MVFR cigs this morning
and have opted to mention and TEMPO group through 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

The troughing pattern over Central and East TX will shift SEwd today
as a mid-level ridge axis knifes east into North Central TX. Broad
Cyclonic flow at 700 mbs will continue over the Coastal Prairies
today and Thursday which will help hold pwat values over 1.5 inches
and support the capability of air-mass type showers and thunderstorms
in the short term. The rain chances should retreat slightly eastward
versus today as the 700 mb shear axis weakens and allows more mid-
level drying over the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should still be
moderated slightly with most grounds containing some moisture from
the past rains. A warming trend should accelerate over most areas
for Thursday after a full day of good mixing without precip is
expected. A trough clipping across the Northern/Central Plains should
increase southerly winds and raise min temps and heat index values
for Thursday, but think the values will remain shy of heat advisory
levels.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
No rain is forecasts for the extended forecast, save for a slight
chance of rain for far east counties Friday. The troughing pattern
moving through the plains Friday is expected to develop a frontal
zone over OK and a thunderstorm complex over the Red River Valley,
leading to further increases in onshore winds and humidity. Thus
there is a chance we`ll see near Heat Advisory conditions for Friday.
A fairly flat ridge axis pattern over Central TX should lead to a
fair wx and seasonal forecast for the weekend into Independence Day.
Deterministic model solutions do not show a significant weakening in
the suppressed ridging pattern over Central TX, so the chances that
storms propagate Swd into our forecast Saturday is low.

Over the weekend, the mid-upper level ridging to the west amplifies
northward in the wake of the shallow Central US trough which should
lower surface winds and perhaps enhance dry air mixing and lower heat
indices. Eastern counties should still expect to see some triple
digit heat index values for Saturday, but continued daytime mixing
and weakened onshore winds should help send the daily heat index
trend gradually downward Sunday into Independence Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  74  94  77  95 /  10  -   10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  73  94  77  95 /  20  -   10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  72  94  76  95 /  20  -   10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            89  72  93  75  93 /  -    0  -   -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  74 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  72  93  76  94 /  10  -   10  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             93  72  97  76  98 /  10   0  10  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  73  93  77  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  74  92  78  93 /  30  10  30  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  74  94  77  96 /  10  -   10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           92  74  95  77  96 /  10  -   10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks


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