Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 201950
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Other than a few isolated showers across areas east of I-35, and a
few sprinkles along the I-35 corridor all of the precipitation today
has been concentrated over the Houston area. Through the afternoon
due to the moist southerly flow there could still be a couple of
isolated showers or storms. For tonight and tomorrow morning a few
streamer showers will be possible mainly across areas along and east
of I-35. The typical low clouds and patchy fog that Central Texas
sees with southerly flow is also forecast. By Saturday afternoon with
the added day time heating an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible, but chances remain low and confined to the eastern areas
due to capping and where the focus of the more significant moisture
resides. Temperatures will be warm ahead of the front expected
Saturday night. Highs for Saturday will be in the upper 80s with
south winds continuing. This will result in afternoon heat index
values in the lower 90s. As you venture out enjoying your weekend
plans be on the lookout for the isolated storms, and be aware of the
hot and humid October afternoon expected on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The biggest weather feature of the next seven days, and the long
advertised front will arrive Saturday night. The front is now within
the time frame of several high resolution models from the Texas Tech
WRF to the ARW and NMM. As the trough pivots into Texas and the front
moves south showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of
the front. While the focus of the shower and thunderstorm activity,
including the best chance for strong to severe storms, will be north
of the area - from DFW into Oklahoma - there is a chance that Central
Texas could see a few strong to severe storms with the front. Model
soundings are showing a weakly capped or uncapped atmosphere with
1500-2000 j/kg of CAPE and plenty of shear could lead to these strong
to severe storms. Because of this the Storm Prediction Center has
extended the marginal risk area southwestward to include much of the
I-35 corridor. The primary threat will be strong thunderstorm winds
with the line of storms, along with hail. The current timing of the
front looks to be between 5am and 9am for the Austin Metro area, 9am
to noon for the San Antonio Metro, and out of our southern counties
along the coastal plains by 1pm to 3pm in the afternoon. Behind the
front skies will clear and winds will shift out of the north and be
gusty at times up to 25 mph.

Temperature behind the front will cool slightly with highs on Sunday
only expected in the upper 70s. Next week will be dry and mostly
sunny through the week. Another front arrives on Tuesday which will
help reinforce the north winds, dry conditions, and slightly cooler
temperatures. The next rain maker could be another front, just beyond
the forecast period, late next week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  70  86  65  77 /  40  20  20  80  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  69  87  66  76 /  40  20  30  80  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  69  88  66  78 /  30  20  20  70  50
Burnet Muni Airport            79  67  84  60  74 /  30  20  20  80  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           82  67  85  62  80 /  10  10  -   40  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  68  86  63  75 /  40  20  20  80  40
Hondo Muni Airport             85  68  88  65  82 /  20  10  10  70  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  69  87  66  78 /  30  20  20  80  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  70  87  68  77 /  40  20  40  60  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  69  88  67  80 /  30  10  20  70  40
Stinson Muni Airport           86  69  90  68  80 /  20  10  10  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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