Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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744
FXUS64 KEWX 221952
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
252 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The weather has been fairly quiet across our CWA today with storms
confined to locations to the east. Cloud cover has kept things mostly
in check with north winds also continuing to keep the surface rather
cool. Temperatures are currently in the lower to upper 70s. The focus
tonight will shift to northwest of our CWA. There is a shortwave
trough embedded in the longwave trough axis that is currently
rotating across New Mexico. This system should kick off a complex of
showers and thunderstorms which could possibly congeal into a line of
storms across West Texas. The environment across the region will
support some severe storms well to our northwest. This complex of
activity will move southeast through the late afternoon and evening.
Latest high-res guidance brings a decaying line of showers and storms
to the northern Hill Country counties around midnight. The idea of a
decaying complex seems plausible given weaker CAPE values over our
area and the loss of daytime heating. The latest Day 1 outlook from
SPC has our northwestern CWA clipped with a marginal risk and this
seems good based on latest thinking. Will go with 30 to 50 Pops for
the Hill Country with 20s and 30s elsewhere mainly after 06z. Lows
will bottom out in the 60s with low 60s in the Hill Country.

The active weather pattern will continue tomorrow as an impulse
rotating around the main upper low will send a cold front south into
Texas. This front will arrive to our northern counties around noon
and should quickly move through the area during the afternoon. The
timing of the FROPA should help increase strong to severe storm
chances. CAPE values will approach 1500-2500 J/kg with the higher
values across the southern counties where the best chances for severe
storms will be located and this is where a slight risk is in effect.
Main threats for any severe weather will be large hail and damaging
winds. All storms should exit the region to the south around 7 PM
leaving a quiet night for Tuesday night. Lows behind the front
Wednesday morning will bottom out in the 50s and low 60s. The record
low for Austin Bergstrom on Wednesday is 58 which could be
threatened.



&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Dry weather is expected to return to the forecast Wednesday through
Saturday behind the cold front. The next system is slated to push
into the region Sunday with another weaker front moving into the
region. This will bring another chance of showers and storms to the
area. There are some discrepancies between the medium range guidance
and will just forecast 30 PoPs Sunday and Monday to cover the threat.
It is too early to get into specifics but some strong storms would be
possible. High temperatures in the extended will start off in the
lower to middle 80s on Wednesday before returning to the 90s areawide
by Friday. Slightly cooler weather returns Sunday and Monday with
the increased rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  82  58  84  63 /  40  50  30  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  81  56  84  60 /  40  50  30  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  82  56  84  61 /  30  50  30  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            62  77  54  83  61 /  50  50  20  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  85  60  86  65 /  30  30  10  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  79  55  82  62 /  40  50  20  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             67  85  55  85  61 /  40  40  20  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  82  55  84  61 /  30  50  30  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  82  56  83  62 /  20  50  30  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  82  58  85  63 /  30  40  30  -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           68  82  58  85  63 /  30  40  30  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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