Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 241351
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
851 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE... /RAIN CHANCES TRENDING UPWARD TODAY/

Have updated to likely PoPs for Nrn/Ern counties this morning as
rapid refresh models have trended toward more convection coverage and
intensity during the midday hours. Near widespread convection is
currently forming along three converging convergence zones: one
moving south over the Nrn Hill Country, a second moving SW over
Central TX, and a third moving NW over the Coastal Prairies. An MCV
also appears to have taken shape over North Central TX, moving
progressively Swd generally along Hwy 281. While these signals
suggest increase in rain chances for the San Antonio metro area and
points southwest, the midday arrival indications from the rapid
refresh runs do show the activity shifting from numerous to
scattered. So while this is a positive signal for much needed rain,
many folks may still miss out on this first round of rain chances. In
this update, the morning rain chances were reduced for the San
Antonio area and points southwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

AVIATION...
Forecast will be dependent mainly on the mesoscale features today
through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are currently approaching
the Hill Country and South Central Texas from North Central Texas and
the Coastal Plains. Expect them into the KAUS area around 13Z or so.
Elsewhere, have VCSH starting at 16Z as heating, a cold front, and
boundary collisions generate additional showers and thunderstorms
later this morning through Sunday. Timing is uncertain for the most
part and largely dependent on boundary locations and speed. Areas of
IFR/MVFR CIGs generally lift to VFR by midday, then lower back to
IFR/MVFR later this evening into overnight. Brief IFR/MVFR CIGs/VSBYs
are possible in showers and thunderstorms. South to southeast winds
5 to 12 KTs will prevail, except east to northeast behind the front
and variable with gusts up to 45 KTs in and near the stronger
thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad, shallow trough over
the country with the flow over Texas from the northwest. At the
surface, a cold front was stretched from south of Dallas to San
Angelo to Van Horn. Ahead of the front, winds across our CWA were
generally light from the southeast to south. The upper pattern will
be stagnant across the southern part of the country during this
period. The cold front will move into our CWA and stall. This will
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region. The better
chances will be across the north and east. While conditions are not
favorable for widespread severe thunderstorms, as we saw Friday
night, any storms that do form could produce strong wind gusts. This
will be especially true in places where storms form after significant
heating during the day. Rain chances will continue Saturday night
and Sunday with the front stalled across our CWA. The combination of
the cold front and cloudy skies will keep temperatures down
significantly from the near records on Friday.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
The front will remain stalled across our eastern area Monday and
Tuesday and rain chances will continue. Wednesday the subtropical
ridge will build in from the west pushing chances for convection to
the eastern half of the CWA for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday a
weakening of the ridge may allow isolated showers and thunderstorms
to spread back across the entire area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  73  89  72  89 /  60  50  50  40  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  72  88  71  89 /  60  50  40  40  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  73  89  71  89 /  50  40  50  40  50
Burnet Muni Airport            88  71  85  70  86 /  60  40  50  40  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  76  93  74  93 /  40  30  30  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  71  87  70  88 /  60  50  40  40  40
Hondo Muni Airport             95  74  92  72  91 /  50  40  40  40  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  73  89  71  89 /  60  50  40  40  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  74  89  73  89 /  60  40  50  40  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  74  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  40  40
Stinson Muni Airport           94  75  91  73  91 /  50  30  40  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...YB


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